Wednesday, April 28, 2010

High School Pitchers vs. College Pitchers - 1st round from 2000-2005

Over at Only Bucs, there has been a lot of debate over who the Pirates should draft at 1-2 (assuming that Bryce Harper is off the board). My personal choice would be Jameson Taillon, a high school pitcher from Texas that gasses it at 98 mph. However, I feel that this front office is averse to drafting HS pitchers in the first and paying a large bonus to them (too many eggs in one basket).

As a result, due to the lack of both HS and college bats in this draft, I believe they will go with a college pitcher and select Drew Pomerantz.

One poster is adamantly opposed to drafting a college pitcher, not only in the 1-2 spot, but in the entire first round. He's even made it his signature below his posts...."Say no to college pitchers in the first round".

This got me thinking about the relative success/failure of recent 1st round picks among pitchers. For this post, I'm going from 2000 to 2005, as I believe 2006 is a shade too early to evaluate all the selections at this point. Some are either still at AAA or below or very early in their MLB careers.

Now success...that's very subjective....I don't think that Sean Burnett was a successful pick. You don't draft Burnett thinking "Here's our future LOOGY". But Chad Cordero, for instance, was a good pick. He was picked to be a closer and at least for a few years he did just that. Of course, this is subject to debate.

This post will be lengthy, so I'll "Executive Summary" it for those who want the bottom line. If you want to see how the sausage is made, keep reading after.

Executive Summary
2000-2005 Results
15 out of 59 College Pitchers were a "YES" (25.4%)
10 out of 33 High School Pitchers were a "YES" (30.3%)

Conclusion
While HS pitchers have been more successful, I feel that the margin between the two categories is small enough to NOT warrant such a reaction to swear off drafting COL pitchers entirely. Personally, I feel that HS pitchers have more "impact" potentially, due to more careful overseeing of pitch counts and the ability to be in the majors by age 22 versus age 24 for college guys.

However, if I liked a COL pitcher I would not feel the need to pass on him because of pre-disposed tendencies.

Number Crunching Results
2000
1-2 A. Johnson - MIN - No
1-4 M. Stodolka - KC - No [HS]
1-5 J. Wayne - MON - No
1-8 M. Wheatland - DET - No [HS]
1-9 M. Phillips - SD - No [HS]
1-10 J. Torres - LAA - No [HS]
1-14 B. Hale - BAL - No
1-16 B. Traber - NYM - No
1-17 B. Diggins - LAD - No
1-19 S. Burnett - PIT - No [HS]
1-20 C. Bootcheck - LAA - No
1-21 B. Bonser - SF - No [HS]
1-22 P. Dumatrait - BOS - No
1-24 B. Williams - SF - No
1-27 R. Stiehl - HOU - No
1-29 A. Wainwright - ATL - Yes
1/10 COL
0/6 HS
* M. Harrington did not sign

2001
1-2 M. Prior - CHI - Yes
1-3 D. Brazelton - TB - No
1-4 G. Floyd - PHI - Yes [HS]
1-6 J. Karp - MON - No
1-7 C. Smith - BAL - No
1-8 J. Van Benschoten - PIT - No
1-9 C. Griffin - KC - No [HS]
1-11 K. Baugh - DET - No
1-12 M. Jones - MIL - No [HS]
1-16 K. Honel - CHW - No [HS]
1-17 D. Denham - CLE - No [HS]
1-18 A. Heilman - NYM - No
1-21 B. Hennessey - SF - No
1-22 J. Bulger - ARI - No
1-24 M. McBride - ATL - No [HS]
1-26 J. Bonderman - OAK - Yes [HS]
1-27 A. Horne - CLE - No [HS]
1-28 J. Pope - STL - No
1-30 N. Lowry - SF - No
1/11 COL
2/8 HS
* J. Sowers did not sign

2002
1-1 B. Bullington - PIT - No
1-3 C. Gruler - CIN - No [HS]
1-4 A. Loewen - BAL - No [HS]
1-5 C. Everts - MON - No [HS]
1-6 Z. Greinke - KC - Yes [HS]
1-9 J. Francis - COL - Yes
1-12 J. Saunders - LAA - Yes
1-15 S. Kazmir - NYM - Yes [HS]
1-17 C. Hamels - PHI - Yes [HS]
1-18 R. Ring - CHW - No
1-21 B. Brownlie - CHI - No
1-22 J. Guthrie - CLE - Yes
1-24 J. Blanton - OAK - Yes
1-25 M. Cain - SF - Yes [HS]
1-29 D. Grigsby - HOU - No
1-30 B. Fritz - OAK - No
4/9 COL
4/7 HS

2003
1-3 K. Sleeth - DET - No
1-4 T. Stauffer - SD - No
1-8 P. Maholm - PIT - Yes
1-9 J. Danks - TEX - Yes [HS]
1-14 R. Wagner - CIN - No
1-16 J. Allison - FLA - No [HS]
1-20 C. Cordero - MON - Yes
1-22 D. Aardsma - SF - No
1-24 C. Billingsley - LAD - Yes [HS]
1-25 B. Sullivan - OAK - No
2/7 COL
2/3 HS

2004
1-2 J. Verlander - DET - Yes
1-3 P. Humber - NYM - No
1-4 J. Niemann - TB - Yes
1-5 M. Rogers - MIL - No [HS]
1-6 J. Sowers - CLE - No
1-7 H. Bailey - CIN - No [HS]
1-10 T. Diamond - TEX - No
1-12 J. Weaver - LAA - Yes
1-13 B. Bray - MON - No
1-16 D. Purcey - TOR - No
1-17 S. Elbert - LAD - No [HS]
1-19 C. Lambert - STL - No
1-22 G. Perkins - MIN - Yes
1-23 P. Hughes - NYY - Yes [HS]
1-25 K. Waldrop - MIN - No [HS]
1-27 T. Tankersley - FLA - No
1-29 M. Campbell - KC - No
1-30 E. Hurley - TEX - No [HS]
4/12 COL
1/6 HS
* W. Townsend did not sign

2005
1-6 R. Romero - TOR - Yes
1-8 W. Townsend - TB - No
1-9 M. Pelfrey - NYM - Yes
1-15 L. Broadway - CWS - No
1-16 C. Volstad - FLA - Yes [HS]
1-18 C. Carillo - SD - No
1-20 M. Pawelek - CHI - No [HS]
1-22 A. Thompson - FLA - No [HS]
1-24 B. Bogusevic - HOU - No
1-25 M. Garza - MIN - Yes
1-26 C. Hansen - BOS - No
1-27 J. Devine - ATL - No
1-29 J. Marceaux - FLA - No
3/10 COL
1/3 HS

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