Tuesday, December 3, 2013
Let's keep on truckin' into the top half of this eagerly anticipated list. As always, check out the first post for methodology and eligibility rules.
#15 Cody Dickson, LHP (22), A/A+ -- The Pirates are unbelievably rich in pitching. Right-handed pitching. They are severely lacking in left-handers, now that Locke and Wilson are up in majors. Enter Cody Dickson via the 4th round of the 2013 draft. Dickson has good velocity for a lefty and good promise on his secondary pitches. He debuted with short-season Jamestown and had a fantastic campaign (2.37 ERA, 57 IP, 42 H, 24 BB, 59 K). It's entirely possible that Dickson could jump West Virginia and go to Bradenton for 2014, as Adrian Sampson did this past season. However, Bradenton's rotation is potentially crowded, so he and Buddy Borden could be forced to pitch in Low A for the first half of the season.
#14 Buddy Borden, RHP (22), A/A+ -- Aside from being right-handed, you can pretty much take the whole writeup from Dickson above and use it for Borden. Borden was a late signee as the Pirates were able to chase him down at the deadline when some other draftees looked like they weren't going to sign. Borden didn't pitch as much as Dickson, but his stats were very loud (1.08 ERA, 16 IP, 10 H, 5 BB, 23 K) and his arsenal is a half-tick better than Dickson. I hope that at least one of them jump to Bradenton to start 2014.
#13 Harold Ramirez, OF (19), A -- An embarrassment of riches. That's what the Pirates' organizational OF depth is, both at the major and minor levels. Which is a stark contrast from the Pirates just being an embarrassment in recent years. Ramirez was a big ticket International signing back in 2010 and has gone one rung at a time, making his full season debut in 2014 seem like a certainty. Ramirez had a great season, considering he was 18 against 21-23 year olds in the NYPL, and put up a .286/.354/.409 (763 OPS) with 5 HR and 23 SB's. The one thing I'm not wild about is his size at 5'-11'. Hopefully he can grow a couple of inches.
#12 Brandon Cumpton, RHP (25), AAA/MLB -- Cumpton is the forgotten man in Pirate discussions. No one talks about him as a prospect, no one talks about him as a potential candidate for the 2014 rotation. He's here because of his proximity to the majors and his demonstrated ability to pitch in the majors. Cumpton sure looks like a #4 starter that is ready to go, if needed (30 IP, 26 H, 5 BB, 22 K in MLB). His stuff is not overwhelming, but he showed a nice slider-fastball combo. Not a flashy prospect, but he's not high risk, either.
#11 Stolmy Pimentel, RHP (25), AAA/MLB -- Here's another guy not getting much burn. Pimentel had a fantastic 2013 in AAA (3.35 ERA, 169 IP, 150 H, 56 BB, 123 K) and got his feet wet with 9 bullpen innings in Pittsburgh. His ceiling, like Cumpton, is probably a 4th starter, but that has tremendous value nowadays. Of the two, I think Pimentel sees more time in 2014 in Pittsburgh, probably as a swingman out of the bullpen, because he is out of options and Cumpton still has an option.
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Oh, Neal. I can't believe you're such a troublemaker. How dare you trade away #18 prospect Alex Dickerson in the middle of the DBS 30?
I'm not a huge fan of Jaff Decker (starting with the ridiculous first name), but in order to keep my sanity, I'm just going to slot him in to Dickerson's spot at #18 and keep on truckin'. To get the recap on the methodology and eligibility cutoffs, check out the first post.
#20 Barrett Barnes, OF (22), A+ -- A large part of the way I rank prospects is based on the question 'How likely are they to reach their potential' which factors in distance from the majors and injury history. This is why the supremely talented, yet injury-prone, Barnes is situated at #20. He missed time in his 2012 draft year and then missed the majority of the 2013 season with different leg ailments. Along the way he put up a .268/.338/.399 (732 OPS) line with 5 HR and 10 SB in just 46 games. Barnes should be in the discussion of the great wave of talented OF in the system, but not until he plays a full season for me.
#19 Max Moroff, SS (21), A+ -- Once you factor in the potentially excellent rotation coupled with the number of interesting positional prospects scattered about, it seems as if Bradenton will be the team to watch in the 2014 season. Moroff is one of them for me as a young shortstop prospect. Moroff has shown in his short time since being drafted in 2012 that he has a good ability to judge the strike zone. In 2013 his line of .233/.335/.345 (680 OPS) seems pedestrian, but he did draw 65 walks in nearly 500 plate appearances. Lot to work on, but if his judgment gets refined there could be something here.
#18 Jaff Decker, OF (24), AAA/MLB -- Decker is a little fireplug of a player at 5'-10" and 200 lbs. He's basically Travis Snider without the ability to do an awesome job of grilling, right down to the unfulfilled potential. Decker doesn't have enough power to be a full-time starter at the corner OF and doesn't have enough speed to compensate for it. In 2013, he hit .286/.381/.443 (824 OPS) with just 10 HR in the hitter-friendly PCL. With Snider in his first year of arbitration and a less-than-glowing endorsement from Huntington, Snider could be on his way out and Decker on his way in.
#17 Blake Taylor, LHP (18), SS -- Warning! Warning! DBS Blind Spot Alert! Yes, lefties that can gas it are my Achilles heel. Couple that with a draftee at age 17 who will be younger by a year each level and I'm definitely going to be nuts. Taylor, in his pre-draft videos, looked like Justin Wilson but with even less control. Once he gets put in the fastball command machine of the Pirates' developmental system, I'm thinking he has the potential to be a power lefty starter. Or Justin Wilson's replacement in the pen as a power setup guy. Definitely a guy to watch this season at Jamestown or the new Bristol affiliate (most likely).
#16 Andrew Lambo, OF/1B (25), MLB -- Lambo debuted in 2013 with Pittsburgh and was on the roster quite a bit, but only accrued 30 at-bats. In Indy, he had an amazing line of .282/.347/.574 (922 OPS) with 32 HR. He's been working at 1B in the winter leagues, so he may be the platoon partner of Gaby Sanchez. His defense in the OF is less than awesome, so it may be 1B or bust for him.
Sunday, November 24, 2013
Recently, The Counselor came out. I was really anticipating this movie, based on the great cast, the great director, and the great screenwriter. Can't miss! Well, it missed. All the pieces were in place and some of those pieces even did a great job, but all together it just didn't work.
Cut to Friday night. DB~ and I were supposed to meet our friends for dinner at BOhem in Seven Fields, but unfortunately they had a family issue and couldn't meet us. When we walked into BOhem (short for bohemian, but not sure why the 'O' is capitalized too), we were taken back by how gorgeous the interior is.
Cut stone on the walls, funky chandeliers, interesting typography fonts, lighting fixtures made out of old wine bottles, and rough-cut wooden tables. This is pretty much how we would decorate a restaurant if we owned it. On this damp and chilly November night, there was a fire going in the fireplace right next to us.
Our first flag was the fact that at 6 pm on a Friday night, in the busy 228 corridor no less, there were only 3 other tables seated. By the time we left at 7:15, it was more busy, but still.
The menu is billed as French rustic bistro, so again, it should have been right up our alley. I went with the Boeuf Bourguignon and DB~ chose the Mac 'n Cheese with Shrimp added. A rustic stew (with short rib meat, one of my culinary kryptonites) and mac 'n cheese? Talk about a slam dunk to try a new restaurant!
Unfortunately, the meal was disappointing. Not to harp on what is becoming a common topic, but my dish was overpriced ($18) for the amount and quality of what I got. I counted six (!) half-dollar sized chunks of meat in my stew. The stew meat, if it was short rib, was tough and chewy. The carrots and potatoes were very tender (I even ate the mushrooms) and the sauce was extremely flavorful, but there wasn't even enough carrots and potatoes to make up for the lack of meat.
Where's The Boeuf?
DB~'s dish was also underwhelming. Billed as macaroni with a cheddar gratinee and spinach, it was a pasta dish with a creamy spinach sauce. This should have been a hearty dish, definitely not with a runny white sauce, with some prawn size shrimp on top. Instead, the shrimp were tiny and the dish completely underwhelming.
So we're never going there again, right? Well, not really. Much like The Counselor, I'm willing to give it a second chance. Maybe get some appetizers and treat it like a tapas bar. The interior is too good to give up on. What this place really needs is a chef that knows how to cook like a French bistro.
Friday, November 22, 2013
We kicked off the first part of this six part epic series a couple of days ago. The ground rules and ranking methodology were in that post, for reference.
#25 Clay Holmes, RHP (21), A+ -- Holmes had more fanfare than Tyler Glasnow in the 2011 draft, but Glasnow has broken out in a big way, while Holmes has struggled. Such is the life of drafting prospects. However, it's not time to give up on Holmes (unlike...say...Zach von Rosenberg from the 2009 draft). Holmes' 2013 was "eh" on ERA (4.08), good on K's (90 in 119 IP) and terrible in BB's (69 in those same 119 IP). He'll move up to a potentially crowded Bradenton rotation and really needs a strong year, lest he'll get lost in the shuffle of the amazing pitching depth in this organization.
#24 Casey Sadler, RHP (23), AAA -- Sadler was just recently added to the Pirates' 40-man roster, so they at least think his future will be with the team at some point. Sadler had a breakout season in 2012 with Bradenton, but saw his K/9 peripheral drop significantly in 2013 at Altoona. Sadler had a respectable season (3.37 ERA, 136 IP, 72 K, 43 BB), but his odd 3/4 delivery may not play out in the majors as a starter. Ultimately, I think he's a middle reliever.
#23 Jin-de Jhang, C (21), A -- Jhang is a Taiwanese international signee that the Pirates are quite high on. His offense for a catcher is promising (.277/.338/.413, 751 OPS) and his defense is good. This year should see him go to full-season ball for the first time, as he's part of the jumble of catchers with Mathisen and McGuire. Right now, he seems more like a backup or the lesser part of a job share, unless one of the bat or glove becomes spectacular.
#22 Joely Rodriguez, LHP (22), AA -- Rodriguez was also recently added to the 40-man roster by the Pirates. I've been a fan of his for a while, because left handed pitchers with any modicum of velocity are my Achilles heel (imagine how much I like Justin Wilson). Rodriguez has dealt with some injuries and so-so results throughout his career, but he seems poised to show his stuff coming off a good season split between WV and Bradenton (2.70 ERA, 140 IP, 39 BB, 101 K). Rodriguez has demonstrated an incredible ability to generate ground balls, which gives him bonus points with the front office.
#21 Jason Creasy, RHP (22), A+ -- People ask me all the time (no they don't) 'Who is a sleeper in the Pirates' system?' My answer for this year would be Jason Creasy. Drafted in the 8th round in 2011 (along with Holmes and Glasnow, to say nothing of Gerrit Cole), Creasy has been overshadowed. Part of it was his own doing, as his 2012 was kind of bad. But he broke out in 2013, first as a reliever in WV and then as a starter. His stats for both were very good (Reliever -- 3.16, 42 IP, 7 BB, 41 K and as a Starter -- 2.47 ERA, 65 IP, 17 BB, 55 K), but I would expect him to be used as a full time starter in 2013 for the aforementioned crowded Bradenton rotation.
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
Let's sort the laundry! Time for the annual (and eagerly-anticipated) DBS Top 30 Prospects series.
Ground rules -- 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 30 relief appearances in the majors exhausts your eligibility. So bid adieu to Justin Wilson, Bryan Morris, Jordy Mercer, and top prospect Gerrit Cole.
The way I evaluate prospects is two-fold:
1) What is the player's ultimate ceiling?
2) What is the likelihood that he will reach it?
#2 has to do with injury history, location on the rungs of the minor league ladder, and other non-performance factors (suspensions). So with that said, let's tackle the first five. The number in parentheses is the player's age for the 2014 season, using the standard July 1st cutoff date. I'm forecasting the level they may start at, as well.
#30 Wyatt Mathisen, C (20), A -- There is no question that 2013 was a wasted year for Mathisen. His on-field performance was awful (.228/.323/.251, 575 OPS) and he dealt with various injuries to his shoulder throughout the year, too. But there is still an athletic and talented player within Mathisen. The issue at hand now is the presence of 2013 1st round pick, Reese McGuire, in the system. Clearly, McGuire is "the catcher of the future", and needs reps. Typically, those reps for high-end HS draftees start at Low A the year after his draft year (like Mathisen), but Mathisen's performance doesn't warrant a promotion to High A.
Further complicating it is the fact that Jin-de Jhang needs to move up from short-season to Low A in 2014, too. Mathisen and Jhang will most likely be the starters at Low A, with McGuire sticking behind at Extended Spring Training in the hopes that Mathisen impresses enough to move up. However, Mathisen could also be looking at a position change, too. In short, Mathisen is a total mystery to me in 2014 at this point.
#29 Neil Kozikowski, RHP (19), SS -- Kozikowski was the Pirates' 8th round draft pick this year out of a Connecticut HS. He was able to pitch 24 innings in the GCL. Kozikowski is tall (6'-4") and thin (180), which fits the profile of the projectable HS arm the Pirates are enamored with. He should follow the typical model and move up to one of the short-seasons this year, either Jamestown or the new team in the Appalachian League in Bristol.
#28 Ryan Hafner, RHP (22), A+ -- Ryan Hafner in 2012 was a disaster as a starter (75 walks in 74 innings with only 36 K's), but in 2013 as a pure reliever he was much better (102 strikeouts in 87 innings, with only 40 walks). His fastball jumped up to the low 90's from the 87-88 it was sitting as a starter and his offspeed stuff showed improvements. At this point, Hafner's career should remain in the pen and keep moving him up the chain.
#27 Adalberto Santos, OF (26), AAA -- To me, Santos has the makings of a decent 25th man, which would be a nice get for your #27 prospect. This is his last year on the list, win or lose, as he is in his age-26 season in 2014. He's defensively limited, but he can put the bat on the ball and could be a decent pinch hitter/pinch runner (.281/.375/.386, 782 OPS, w/ 21 steals). Santos did not get bumped up mid-season in 2013, which probably speaks to his overall future, but I'm going to keep the flame burning one more year.
#26 Kyle McPherson, RHP (26), AAA -- Like Santos, this will be McPherson's final year on the list, as I don't believe you are a prospect anymore at age 27. McPherson got his feet wet in the majors in 2012 and was a candidate for the #5 spot coming into Spring Training 2013, but he experienced some arm troubles. This led to a demotion to Indy and he was awful (2 starts, 4.2 IP, 19.29 ERA) before getting Tommy John surgery. He'll be out until mid-2014, most likely, and then will have to claw his way back to Pittsburgh with a pretty long line of starters ahead of him in the pecking order. His future is probably as a middle reliever.
Wednesday, November 13, 2013
Neil Walker was a hot mess this year as a right-handed batter against lefties. It's to the point where there is legitimate talk about putting him a platoon situation. Good news is that he is still fantastic against RHP's, of which there are significantly more pitchers.
But it wasn't always this way. What it has been is a long, steep decline. Check out his splits for each of his full seasons (2010 to 2013).
v. RHP -- .298/.353/.465 (818 OPS), 123 wRC+
v. LHP -- .295/.344/.464 (809 OPS), 118 wRC+
As a refresher, wRC+ is weighted Runs Created above average. 100 is the base level, so Walker was 23% better than average against RHP and 18% better than average against LHP. There is virtually no split at all here. It's pretty much the perfect example of a switch hitter.
v. RHP -- .277/.340/.434 (773 OPS), 114 wRC+
v. LHP -- .269/.322/.350 (672 OPS), 86 wRC+
OK, starting to go downhill, but it's still manageable. The disconcerting part is that his isolated power dropped to .081 versus LHP. If Walker could hold the line here, it would be acceptable, but not preferred.
v. RHP -- .291/.352/.473 (825 OPS), 126 wRC+
v. LHP -- .246/.314/.288 (602 OPS), 69 wRC+
Well, now the wheels are off the wagon completely. He's not even hitting for an empty average, as his .246 is poor. Even worse is his isolated power is now at .052, which is Juan Pierre-esque. And his weighted Runs Created continues to drop like an anvil in a lake.
v. RHP -- .256/.350/.455 (805 OPS), 127 wRC+
v. LHP -- .225/.281/.238 (519 OPS), 48 wRC+
I mean...c'mon now, Neil. There's no way to defend any part of this horrible line. A .013 isolated power? Neil hit 1 double, 0 triples, and 0 home runs this year. And he's 52% worse than average against lefties.
Just take a second and look at the steep and consistent decline in those numbers from year-to-year. That's jarring. It's at the point where someone has to say to him "Stop switch hitting, Neil."
It literally can not be worse if he batted full time as a lefty.
I am a big advocate of giving Neil Walker a moderate extension. I'm proposing something along the lines of 4 years/$30M. The contract would buy out the three remaining arbitration years (Walker is a Super 2) and his first free agent year. That would take Walker through his age-31 season. By that time, Alen Hanson would hopefully be able to take over at 2B. My Hanson estimate is that he would be ready in mid-2015, so Hanson could apprentice in the middle infield at either SS or backup both SS and 2B.
In the meantime, for the love of baseball, stop switch hitting Neil.
For the 2014 season, new national TV contracts kick in from ESPN, TBS, and Fox. All together, each team's share will go from $23M to the range of $50M, per team, per year. That's an increase of $27M.
With all this extra money being injected into the game, it's only logical to think that it's going to get reflected in free agents this offseason. After all, min-scale salaries are governed by the Collective Bargaining Agreement and will still hover around $500,000. Arbitration is heavily based off of counting stats and previous contracts, so any change in salaries there will be gradual.
This is the season of crazy contract demands, such as Robinson Cano wanting 10yr/$305M and Ervin Santana and his $100M contract demands. Both of those guys are probably going to get 60% of those demands in the end. Cano's case is interesting because his market is so, so limited, especially when he comes out with that number. There are maybe 5 teams that can afford him -- Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Angels, and Red Sox. The Mets are still building a contender and have said they don't want to spend on Cano. The Red Sox have Pedroia. The Angels have Howie Kendrick (who they're looking to move to re-allocate payroll to pitching) and a host of bad contracts already. The Dodgers just signed a Cuban ex-pat to play 2B.
So that leaves the Yankees, realistically. And they aren't going to bid against themselves, one would think.
Players like Shin-soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury will be in demand and they'll definitely get overpaid by someone, but it's hard to see it being a "good Lord" overpay. I suppose it's possible that the middle tier of free agents, like a Scott Feldman/Phil Hughes type, will be the ones to benefit the most from the influx of TV money. I can see some pitching needy team like the Twins or Rockies dropping a ton of shantovoes on them.
The Pirates are an interesting case, as they have already said that dedicating the $14.1M qualifying offer to A.J. Burnett would occupy too much of their offseason budget. I've estimated that including arbitration cases (and non-tendering Garrett Jones) and pre-existing salary commitments the Pirates payroll stands at $60M going into 2014. It was $65M on opening day 2013, plus they had a strong attendance season, and new TV revenue.
You would think that $75 to $80M would be a realistic payroll figure. Some teams may be allocating a portion of that new TV money to paying down heavily leveraged debt. That's their prerogative to do so. But many teams are going to put it towards payroll, so you don't want to be left behind, either.