Today against the Mets and LHP Jon Niese, the Pirates started the following four players on the corners -- the traditional power positions:
1B Casey McGehee (.186, 0 HR, slumping horribly in May)
3B Yamaico Navarro (.182, 1 HR, starting in place of LH Alvarez)
LF Gorkys Hernandez (first ML start, 0 HR, in place of Tabata)
RF Josh Harrison (.274, 1 HR, hitting well of late but not a power threat)
Between these 4 players, they might hit 15 HR this year. Might. That's spread over 4 positions.
It's no secret that the Pirates' offense is atrocious this year. It's only due to the mostly exceptional pitching that the Pirates are even at 20-24, after today's loss.
Neal Huntington knows this. I've met Huntington numerous times and spoken to him plenty of times. He's astute about the game of baseball. He's not an overmatched dolt as his detractors portray him. This is not Nero fiddling while Rome burns.
I believe him when he says that very few trades happen this time of year. They really don't, mostly because the new smell of the clubhouse has barely worn off. It's not even Memorial Day. The extra wild card in each league will stunt the trade deadline, as teams will want to hang in and make a run, instead of selling off as they may have done in the past.
All that said, there are some teams that absolutely should be looking to sell right now, as their seasons are already over. One of those teams are the Minnesota Twins. Coming into today's action, the Twins stand at 15-27. They have demoted Francisco Liriano to the bullpen, lost Scott Baker for the season to an arm injury, released Jason Marquis, and have 4 (4!) starting pitchers with ERA's over 8.30. The Twins look like they are in need of a tear down and rebuild around the now-albatross contract of Joe Mauer ($23M/yr forever). They need a combination of ML-ready talent and upside talent in their bland minor league system, Miguel Sano not-withstanding.
The only hitter they have playing above the board right now is Josh Willingham, who they signed in the past offseason to a 3 year, $21M deal. Willingham is a LF/1B (in spacious PNC Park, he would play RF) who is 33 years old and has a triple slash right now of .289/.404/.578 (982 OPS, 172 OPS+) with 8 HR and 21 walks. I'm including his walks because those are a rarity for any Pirate this year and he would be leading the team by 8 walks.
Willingham would not only be a legitimate RH power bat, but he would add a professional hitter to a lineup that is lacking them, outside of McCutchen (who is prone to getting homer-happy at times). Willingham's age shouldn't be a concern. He's obviously doing well, in a tough hitters park in Minnesota, at age 33. The Pirates would get him for his age 33-35 seasons and, hopefully, avoid a significant decline in his skills.
What would it take to get him? Using the trade values developed by Victor Wang (which I will be looking to update later this summer) and assuming $5M/WAR, let's take a look:
Willingham has been a fairly consistent 3 WAR player in his career. We'll give him a pro-rated 60% of that for 2012 (assuming he would be traded in the next 2 weeks), a full 3 for 2013, and then a slight decrease to 2.5 WAR in 2014. That will give a total of 7.3 WAR as a Pirate. That would have a value of $36.5M. Subtracting his remaining salary of $18.2M, again pro-rating 60% this year, gives a surplus of $18.3M.
Looking at the chart, that would be a league-wide Top 10 pitching prospect and a grade C pitcher younger than 22. Or a league-wide Top 51-75 hitter and a grade B hitter. Or some combination of lesser players, too. For perspective, the Pirates Top 10 pitchers are Cole and Taillon and their Marte is a 51-75 ranked hitter. I wouldn't trade any of those guys, but I would construct a package of multiple players.
Robbie Grossman was rated a Grade B hitter ($5.5M). Luis Heredia is a grade B pitcher ($7.3M). That's $12.8M of value. Add in some ML-ready pitchers like Rudy Owens (a high floor, pitchability type that the Twins love) and Justin Wilson or Bryan Morris (combined $3.0M value) and now you're in the neighborhood.
Giving up Heredia would hurt, as would the others to certain extents, but the Pirates need help NOW. Farm systems are there to provide cost-controlled talent to the ML team, but also to use in trades to get ML talent.
