Taking Delight in the Brewers' Collapse

Coming into the season, I thought Milwaukee would win between 73 and 78 games.  They were atrocious last year, due to key injuries, but they had some declining players anyway.  Their big offseason move was to sign injury-prone, under-achieving Matt Garza to a 4 year/$50M deal.  How would Ryan Braun fare now that he (hopefully) wasn't juicing anymore?  I didn't see a playoff contender.

Imagine my surprise when at the end of April the Brewers were 20-8 and far, far ahead of the pack in the National League.  I was telling everyone who asked that the Brewers' return trip to Earth would be coming soon, but they didn't really flinch until July.  At the start of July, they lost 10 out of 11.  Their record on July 12 was still 52-43 and they were still tied for 1st place, albeit after they were comfortably leading by 6.5 games at the start of the month.  The rest of the NL landscape was forgiving, as well, with most of the teams just treading water.  Maybe this was the start of the end?

Fast forward to August 25th.  The Brewers had rebounded to playing strong playoff-contender baseball again.  I was still baffled.  Their record was a robust 73-58 and they were 1.5 games up on the Cardinals in the division.  Barring a soul-crushing collapse, the Brew seemed destined for a playoff spot of some sort.

Enter the soul-crushing collapse.  From that day forward, the Brewers have lost (and are still in the midst of it) 13 of 14 games.  Their record is now 74-71 and they are not only 6 games behind the Cards for the division, they are 1.5 games out of the playoffs altogether -- behind the Pirates, which makes it even sweeter.

Is this just the law of averages adjusting with unblinking fury all at the same time?  Have injuries revealed their absolute lack of depth, both in the majors and minors?

Ryan Braun, still one year away from his extended extension of 5 year/$105M kicking in, is having a poor season and now his thumb pain is leading to his whole hand maybe needing surgery.  Shades of Jason Kendall's thumb injury, which was the real reason for Kendall's collapse as a hitter, are echoing.

Carlos Gomez is a terrible human being, so he's also easy to cheer against, even though he's having a good campaign.  I would love to have Jonathan Lucroy, especially with that ultra-friendly contract extension, but he's really the only Brewer I would rescue.  The rest of them all deserve each other.

Hopefully the Brewers continue to collapse, much like the 2012 Pirates did.  The only difference is that the Brewers don't have a wave of talent on the horizon (or a solid, young talent base in the majors) to give them hope for the future.

It couldn't happen to a better franchise.

2014 Season Prediction

All right, let's do it.  This is a much more pleasant exercise than in previous years, because the Pirates actually...won.  It's a very weird feeling predicting that the Pirates are playoff contenders in 2014.  Is this the new reality or am I still being oddly optimistic?

Mark me down for 88 wins and the Pirates claiming a wild card spot in the NL.  I think the same seven teams that were in playoff contention (Cards, Pirates, Reds, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Nationals, Braves) will be the same teams in contention this year.  Perhaps if the Giants' pitching staff rebounds they can get in the mix.

I think Travis Snider will have a nice rebound year now that his big toe injury has finally been resolved.  It won't be enough to hold off mega-prospect Gregory Polanco from coming up in mid-June and claiming RF, though.  Polanco will get some fine-tuning and avoid the Super 2 deadline so that the Pirates only have to go to arbitration with him three times instead of four.

Jameson Taillon had a little setback at the end of Spring Training with his elbow, so they're going to rest him and hope the elbow inflammation dies down.  Right now they're not seeing any tears in the ligament, so that's good news.  Hopefully it won't affect his mid-June arrival time, as he should require less fine-tuning in AAA.

It's almost impossible to think McCutchen can exceed, or even replicate, his 2013 MVP season.  I would be satisfied with a season that's 85% of his 2013 season.  I would like to see Marte improve on his BB rate and keep decreasing his K rate, while increasing his HR's and maintaining his SB total.  Ideally, once Polanco comes up, Polanco will leadoff and Marte will drop down to the 5th or 6th spot.

Alvarez?

I don't know...I'm just getting such a Mark Reynolds vibe off of him, so I'm not going to be surprised by another .230 BA, with 35 HR's and 200 K's.

Quasi-bold prediction?  I think Gerrit Cole will garner some NL Cy Young votes this year.  Not really a contender, unless Kershaw gets hurt, but some down ballot votes.

I also don't think the 1B the Pirates will end the season with is on the roster yet.  There should be adequate money left in the budget for a mid-season trade acquisition, considering they had $19M to spend in the offseason and only spent $7M of it on Volquez (dumpster fire, will be out of the rotation by July) and Barmes.

So finally, here's my guess on the NL Central Standings:
Cardinals -- 96 wins
Pirates -- 88 wins
Reds -- 83 wins
Brewers -- 75 wins
Cubs -- 74 wins

An Intriguing Concept of Pre-Three Rivers Stadium

I am a complete sucker for artistic renderings.  Today's computer-generated ones are a little cold and soulless, as I prefer the hand drawn pencil/pastel sketches of yesteryear gone by.  I want the people in them to have no faces, preferably with just a hint of having feet.

Combine that with my love of baseball stadiums and I give you Stadium Page.  It's a whole website dedicated to drawings of present and past stadiums for different teams.  The best is the Unrealized Concepts section.  I found one in there from 1958 that I have never heard of before and it is super wild.

Apparently some company was presumably paid scads of money to come up with a concept that would never fly in today's bureaucratic, environmentally over-conscious world.  Imagine the Smithfield Street Bridge and then remove that and put in a huge superstructure that would span the Mon River and support:

• A baseball stadium
• Two office towers
• A parking lot 
• A roadway network for the fans to get to/from the stadium

It's a wild idea, but complete unfeasible and probably not constructable at all.  The look of a stadium, essentially, floating on the Mon River would be iconic, but from an engineering standpoint not doable.

I wonder if part of the reason, aside from the unbelievable cost to build and the aforementioned construction issues, is that what would you do with the space when it was time to demolish it?  This stadium if built in let's say 1960 would be 54 years old this year, making it the 3rd oldest in the league, just ahead of Dodger Stadium.  No one's in a rush to tear down Dodger Stadium or Fenway or Wrigley, but we do live in a disposable society.

Would it just become a giant green space?  That would a great use, even though it wouldn't be a profit driver.  I mean...it would be a huge space.  Just by a rough estimation, it would be bigger than Point State Park.  Maybe that could have been the end point for the aerial skyline concept that was floated around town about 15 years ago.  That would have stretched from Mount Washington to Point State Park at the time.

I consider PNC Park to be the finest baseball park in all of MLB.  Its location, view, and amenities can't be beat.  But I do find myself thinking about what this stadium would have been like, too.  

The Blog's Namesake on a piece of Memorabilia

DB~ works with a guy who let her bring home a piece of cool memorabilia to show her two biggest Pirate fans -- her dad and me.  It's a commemorative bat from the 1979 World Series winning Pirates.

On the bat were all the usual suspects -- Stargell, Parker, Madlock, Candelaria, and Tekulve -- but there was also one other name prominently featured.  A young, 22-year old shortstop, still four years away from his prime drug-abusing peak, named Dale Berra signed his name.

It's got to be tough to be the son of one of the most famous players in baseball history, especially one that had such a well-known personality off the field, but Dale Berra never amounted to anything in his career.  Drugs ruined it, but he was never going to be a star in his own right.

It was a young 8-year old nerd that was first captivated by the 1984 Pirates and saw Dale Berra.  Imagine being an impressionable little kid rooting for your first Pirate team and the 1984 Pirates were your first team.  Yikes.  To hear people tell it now, the streets of Pittsburgh were paved with cocaine back then.

I started this blog as a way to memorialize events and thoughts for DB~ and I.  The fact that it is so widely (un)read only adds to it for me.  I selected Dale Berra's Stash for the triple meaning:
1.  A reference to his fantastic mustache
2.  A reference to his fantastic drug supply
3.  A reference to my stash of thoughts

Would a Ryan Braun trade to the Yankees make sense?

Doing a post involving my two least favorite baseball teams probably means that it is late January and there's nothing else baseball related to talk about.  You're probably right.  Like a moth to a flame, I'm repeatedly drawn to Cot's Baseball Contracts and I study the five-year salary projection charts constantly.

By my reckoning, if I could have re-channeled all the amount of useless knowledge in my head, like how much salary the Brewers have committed from 2014-19, I could have cured a disease by now.  Not a major one, like cancer, but a minor one.  Lupus, maybe?

Both the Brewers and Yankees are in desperate need of rebuilds, but neither one is ready to admit it.  The Brewers are on the verge of signing Matt Garza to a reported 4 year/$52M contract.  At least he won't cost them their 1st round pick, like signing Kyle Lohse last year did.  I mention this all the time, but the Brewers are going to be bad.  Not just in 2014, but for the next few years.  Once Garza is signed, the Brewers are going to have close to a $100M opening day payroll in 2014.  All for the pleasure of finishing with no more than 75 wins, probably.

For the 2015 season, though, they'll shed Aramis Ramirez, Yovani Gallardo, and Rickie Weeks' contracts ($39.5M) and still have $53M of commitments, assuming Garza is $13M evenly over his four years.  Ryan Braun will be making $13M himself in 2015; however, in 2016 his extension to his extension kicks in and he will start making $20M.  For a small-mid market team like the Brewers, even if their payroll will be around $100M (thanks to the new national TV contract adding $27M per year), that seems excessive.  Especially when they don't project to be very good.  Their farm system is atrocious.  I put it as the 2nd worst, ahead of only the scorched-earth farm of the Angels.

The Brewers have nice pieces, but not enough to compete with the Cards, Pirates, and Reds over the next five years.  If the plethora of prospects possessed by the Cubs turn out, coupled with their ability to outspend the rest of the NL Central, the Brewers could easily find themselves in the basement for a while.

And that's where the Yankees come in.  After the 2014 season, the Yankees will potentially lose three outfielders in Brett Gardner, Ichiro Suzuki, and Alfonso Soriano.  They'll only have Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran to play CF and RF, respectively, even though Beltran should really switch to DH.  That leaves a gaping hole in LF.

The Yankees just signed Masahiro Tanaka to a 7 year/$155M deal, along with Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Carlos Beltran, so clearly they aren't thinking of rebuilding.  Their farm system is also very bad, probably in the bottom five, so help won't be coming in the form of cost-controlled talent.  The Yankees' idea of rebuilding is buying new talent from trades or free agency.

Let's say that Ryan Braun comes back from his PED suspension in 2014 and puts up a still very good line of .290/.360/.540 with 35 HR's.  Not his peak numbers, but still very, very respectable.

Couldn't you see the Yankees being interested in bringing him on board in 2015 (his age-31 season) and plugging him into LF?  The Brewers could either get out from under his potentially crushing contract of $20M+/season until 2020 and maybe get a prospect or two from the Yankees in the process.  The financial relief alone would help the Brewers re-allocate their resources to the next great corps of Brewers talent.

This really all depends on what the Brewers' owner thinks of Ryan Braun as a person.  If he's fine with his lying about the first drug test, thrown out on a technicality, and his involvement in Biogenesis, then that's fine.  You're made for each other.  But if he's secretly seething about hitching his wagon to a cheater, this could be an opportunity to move on from Braun.

Just something to think about after this offseason.  If you need me, I'll be disappearing down the rabbit hole of Cot's Contracts for a little bit longer.

If I Were a Free Agent (American League)

This is the 2nd part of my hypothetical thought exercise, but this time with AL teams.  For the reasoning and scoring rubric, check out the first post.

15.  Oakland (8 points)
       OWN (2) -- Lou Wolff is actively trying to get out of Oakland and move to San Jose, to the point of supporting a mayoral candidate in the most recent election who would be in favor of not building the A's a new stadium.  He routinely gives miserly budgets to Billy Beane, who is the reason this category is not a 1.
        COMP (4) -- Because Beane is a dark wizard, the A's are going to be competitive for the foreseeable future, even without a stellar farm at the moment.
        QOL (1) -- Oakland is a ghetto and completely crime-ridden.  There is no earthly reason that I would live in this city.
        STAD (1) -- The A's stadium had sewage backups in the locker room and main areas last year.  It's an ugly multi-purpose stadium and the fans are sparse.  Plus...hooligans.

14.  Houston (8 points)
       OWN (1) -- But for the disgrace of Jeffrey Loria goes Jim Crane, an equally detestable human being who has already not endeared himself to the fans.  He also seems to have wandered into a streetfight with the regional sports network, which is going to hamper the team's financial outputs to salary.
       COMP (2) -- I love what GM Jeff Luhnow has done and their farm is top of the line, but I don't see much of an existing base to build off of.  There doesn't appear to be a transformational McCutchen-type of player (maybe George Springer if you squint) and the farm is still 2-3 years from bringing up the waves of talent.  Plus, when it comes, you're still in with LAA, TEX, OAK, and maybe SEA.
       QOL (2) -- Houston is a sprawled out metropolis that seems hot, dusty, and full of ignorant oil-soaked Texans.  I can't think of any interesting feature about Houston that someone has every mentioned.
       STAD (3) -- Minute Maid is a quirky stadium that does have some charms.  If I'm a free agent hitter, it would be a paradise.  The fans have seemed supportive of the Astros when they were competent in the past, especially towards stars like Bagwell and Biggio.

13.  Tampa Bay (10 points)
       OWN (3) -- Stuart Sternberg and the front office are extremely competent people and well ahead of the curve.  The stadium situation, though, seems untenable, and the Rays are on shoestring budgets because of it.  They are constantly looking to flip players for prospects, short of Evan Longoria who is going to be "their guy".
       COMP (4) -- Andrew Friedman is the best GM in the game and masterfully flips his stars for new potential stars.  Their own homegrown farm has really dried up, due to drafting later and missing badly on some picks.
       QOL (2) -- My friend Asian Rob lived in Tampa for many years and I would visit him a few times.  Tampa, like most of Florida, is kind of skeevy (cue 5'ish comment).  However, being on the Bay is nice and Ybor City (although dangerous) is pretty cool.  I just wouldn't want to live here and raise a family.
       STAD (1) -- The Trop is, perhaps, the worst park in baseball.  It has no charm and the fans don't show up because it is in an inconvenient location.

12.  Baltimore (13 points - tie)
       OWN (2) -- I have a lot of family in Baltimore.  It's kind of my second city, so when I say that Peter Angelos is despised by the city, it's true.  He's difficult to deal with and is a notorious micro-manager.  They should be spending more than they do on payroll.
      COMP (3) -- Baltimore has a solid team and some promising young arms on the farm (Bundy, Gausman), but they're in a tough division.  Their farm after Bundy/Gausman thins out quickly.  They always seem to be 1-2 players short.
       QOL (3) -- There's a reason people said 'The Wire' was so realistic.  Downtown Baltimore is sketchy and filled with drug-soaked areas.  There's some cool areas and some areas that are being redeveloped that wouldn't be bad to live in, though.  Surprisingly, aside from Little Italy, the food scene isn't that dynamic and the arts are just middle of the road.  But...they got crabs!
       STAD (5) -- Camden Yards is where all the neo-retro stadiums started from and it still holds up.  That warehouse backdrop is pretty sweet.

11.  Chicago (13 points - tie)
       OWN (3) -- Jerry Reinsdorf has always struck me as being a rich cheapskate with the Sox, even though he plowed a lot of money into them in recent years.  I don't know...just a bad vibe off of him.
       COMP (3) -- The Sox are in the midst of a rebuild.  They made some good bridge moves this past offseason and have the makings of a decent team, but the farm lacks impact talent at the moment (they have the #2 pick in the 2014 draft).
       QOL (5) -- Much like with the Cubs in the NL piece (who were my #1 choice), the City of Chicago has everything I would want in a city if I were living downtown.
       STAD (2) -- Built in the same era as Camden, US Cellular Field went the bland route over the neo-retro.  Big mistake.  It is a soulless ball park and the fans are rough around the edges on the South Side.  The tiebreaker with BAL is that I would rather live in Chicago than Baltimore.

10.  Detroit (14 points - tie)
       OWN (5) -- Mike Illitch, he of the world's worst toupee, is bound and determined to get a World Series championship to DET, even if he has to spend every dime of his kids' inheritances.  That's pretty much what you want from an owner.
       COMP (4) -- Because of their large-market payroll in a mid-market, they'll be right there for the next 5 years.  GM Dave Dombrowski is historically very good at his job on the major league trade and free agency level, which makes up for their terrible farm system.
       QOL (1) -- Detroit is a bankrupt, burned-out husk of what used to be a great American city.  You could not pay me money to live in downtown Detroit, no matter how cool some hipsters are trying to make it by renovating old buildings.  Anthony Bourdain's recent Parts Unknown episode to Detroit was one hour of solid "ruin porn".
       STAD (4) -- Comerica seems like a pretty cool stadium.  The fans really support the Olde English D, too, which is great.

9.   Los Angeles (14 points - tie)
      OWN (5) -- Arte Moreno dumps a ton of money into this team and is relentless in trying to get a winner.  He may meddle a little too much, but he's persistent in funding the team.
      COMP (3) -- The Angels have a huge payroll and the best player in baseball, but also have some real bloated contracts and albatrosses.  Their farm system is scorched-earth bleak.  There is nothing...and I mean nothing...on the farm.
      QOL (3) -- I gave LA a "2" in the Dodgers writeup, but technically the Angels are in Anaheim, which is a little more family-friendly (Disney!), so it gets a bonus point.
      STAD (3) -- Angels Stadium seems very cromulent, especially with those rocks behind the outfield wall.

8.   New York (14 points - tie)
      OWN (4) -- Obviously, aside from Plan 189 going into 2014, the Yankees will spend whatever needs to be spent to try and bring home a winner.  I docked them a point because I couldn't stomach working for the Steinbrenners.
      COMP (3) -- The Yanks have some really bloated contracts and their farm is awful.  They'll be on the edges of the race, especially after 2014's potentially bleak season, but I'm not sure if they will be on the short list of WS Winners in the next 5 years.
      QOL (3) -- Same as the writeup on NY from the NL side of things.  It's just too big of a city for me, even with all the amenities.
      STAD (4) -- It's a gorgeous and opulent stadium, but it seems too rich for my blood.  All of the fans have been squeezed out by the ridiculous ticket prices, in favor of corporate types.

7.   Kansas City (14 points - tie)
      OWN (3) -- David Glass has billionaire money, but has kept KC on the small-market budget for years.  He's opened up a little lately, but like the Pirates I don't think they will retain top talent consistently.
      COMP (3) -- They have a nice core on the team and some intriguing pieces on the farm.  I think they'll be a challenge to DET in the AL Central this year, but MIN is coming on strong, too.  I don't like their GM, at all.
      QOL (4) -- Kansas City seems hearty.  Midwestern.  Solid.  Boring.  Should be a '3', but they get a bonus point for all of the mouth watering BBQ (Arthur Bryant's et al).
      STAD (4) -- Kaufmann Stadium is a cool stadium that is becoming an "old" stadium, just because everyone is getting a new stadium.  I've always like the waterfall feature.  It comes down to the way of life (and BBQ) for this 4-way tiebreaker.

6.   Cleveland (15 points - tie)
      OWN (4) -- The Dolans have been kind of cheap in the past, but they pre-spent on their new local TV contract last year and brought in some talent.  They aren't going to go hog wild to retain or attract new talent, but I think things turned the corner.
      COMP (3) -- DET is the better team and will be for a while, but CLE is very solid.  Their farm, aside from SS Francisco Lindor, is not good at all.
      QOL (3) -- Cleveland gets a bad rap from Pittsburghers, but it's a pretty cool spot, with a growing food scene.  The downtown itself is riddled with potholes and seems like they have no money, but I could live in the immediate area (especially across the river in Ohio City).  The winters here are brutal, though.
       STAD (5) -- I love Progressive Field.  Good setting, easy access.  But where are the fans?  I know CLE loves their sports.

5.   Minnesota (15 points - tie)
      OWN (4) -- The Pohlad sons are not miserly like their deceased father.  They have spent big money to retain talent in recent years, including on franchise icon Joe Mauer.  They addressed pitching this offseason with some decent money, too.
      COMP (4) -- They are presently bad, but their extremely loaded farm system will start in 2015 to supply high-end talent like Buxton, Sano, and Meyer.  They can easily be back on top in 2016.
      QOL (3) -- I'm sure Minneapolis is very wholesome and good for raising a family, but those winters must be a fit-throwing hell ride.
      STAD (4) -- Target Field is kind of on our short list of places to go, as DB~ (for whatever reason) has mentioned how cool it looks.  Their fans are patient and loyal, too.

4.   Toronto (15 points - tie)
      OWN (4) -- The Rogers Media group seems to treat the Jays like a tax write-off at times, but they are willing to make a stab at winning with an increased payroll in recent years.
      COMP (3) -- Alex Anthopoulos may be a madman or a genius, depending on the day, but he's always looking to improve.  Like BAL, they're stuck in a tough division with BOS and NYY spending and TB in terms of talent and GM genius.
      QOL (5) -- The Chicago of Canada.  I love Toronto and am willing to overlook how nasty the winters are.  I would immediately get season tickets for the Leafs and a heavy parka and deal with it.
      STAD (3) -- Rogers Centre is a bland dome, but it's an offensive environment and the fans are Canadian-polite and passionate.

3.   Seattle (15 points - tie)
      OWN (3) -- There's the Nintendo corporation behind this team, ready to put money in to get Robinson Cano and retain Felix Hernandez, if needed.  But man, they're upper management seems to be rough to deal with and despised by the fans.
      COMP (3) -- There's some present talent here and the farm is supplying a steady flow for the next few years, but TEX and OAK (plus a lurking LAA) will make this a tough road.  They may be on the fringe of the playoffs once, maybe twice, in the next 5 years.
      QOL (4) -- I don't drink coffee, but I suppose I would have to start.  Outdoorsy, great food scene, lot of culture.  I've never been, but I really want to go.  Docked a point for the rain and clouds.
      STAD (5) -- DB~ has been here and raved about it.  The retractable roof is 'eh', but I'm overlooking it here.  The tiebreaker is that SEA combines a good city with an up-and-coming team.

2.   Texas (17 points)
      OWN (5) -- The Rangers have plowed ample amounts of money into the team.
      COMP (5) -- Jon Daniels is a great, great GM.  They have a steady farm system and the best on-paper team in the division for the foreseeable future.
      QOL (3) -- I spent a month in Dallas one weekend.  By the end, I was thinking JFK got off easy.  Maybe it would be better if I went back.  It's way better than Houston, for sure.
      STAD (4) -- It's a clean and fancy stadium, but it was just...odd...in some fashion when I was there.  Too much of a bandbox, maybe, but the fans were very passionate.

1.   Boston (19 points) 
      OWN (5) -- John Henry and company plow unbelievable money into the payroll.  If they want a FA, they'll be in the mix.
      COMP (5) -- Great GM, team is coming off a WS win, fantastic farm system.  This is the perfect storm of present and future talent.
      QOL (4) -- Boston has a ton of things to do, recreationally and culturally.  Food there is great.  I just felt like it was a little too insular, too 'you're not from here' for my taste when I was there.
      STAD (5) -- Next to Wrigley, this is THE place as a baseball fan.  I imagine it would be very cool as a player with those fans, too.

19 out of 20 points...wow, Boston.  Just nobody tell my Boston Red Sox-loving sister-in-law they scored this high.
     

If I Were a Free Agent (National League)....

It's January, it's miserable weather outside, so how about a good ol' fashioned thought exercise?
If I were a free agent in baseball, and all teams were interested in me equally and money was equal, where would I go?

First let's set some ground rule assumptions and explain the methodology.  Assume that I'm 29 with a wife and a small child, so I won't be as interested in whoring around a town as if I were a 22 year old rookie.  Also assume that we would live either in the city or just on the edge of it, because I don't want to have to drive 60 minutes and fight rush hour traffic to get to the ballpark.

So here's four criteria that I would set up to evaluate each team if I were a free agent:
1.  Ownership (OWN) -- Do I trust the owners?  Is it a stable ownership situation?  I don't want to work for people that the community doesn't respect or like.
2.  Competitiveness (COMP) -- Let's say I'm looking for a 5 year contract as a free agent.  Is the team going to be competitive over the next 5 years?  I don't want to go somewhere and immediately have the team go into a rebuild.  This also factors in the farm system to replenish talent.
3.  Quality of Life (QOL) -- This is kind of an all-encompassing view of the city.  Is it safe?  Are there things to do, both recreationally and culturally?  How's the food scene (of course I'm factoring that in)?
4.  Stadium (STAD) -- I want to have a nice place to work so the stadium and the fans that contribute to the atmosphere are important.

I'm going to go through each of the 15 National League teams and score each of them in each category on a scale of 1 to 5.  Let's see where they all grade out.

15.  Miami (5 points)
      OWN (1) -- Basically, Jeffrey Loria is a detestable human being and a horrible owner
      COMP (1) -- The Marlins are bad now, their farm system is pretty bad so what-you-see-is-what-you-get, and Loria won't spend money to improve it
      QOL (2) -- Miami is dangerous.  It's also full of fake, plastic people.  I'm not Adonis over here, so the appeal of South Beach wouldn't appeal to me or my young family.  Only positive is that Florida has no state income tax, so cha-ching, more money for us.
      STAD (1) -- The stadium looks atrocious, that center field sculpture is an affront to good aesthetics, and it's hard as hell to hit homers there.

14.  New York (8 points)
       OWN (1) -- The Wilpons are not vile like Loria, but they got mixed up in the Bernie Madoff thing and lost a ton of the Mets money, thus crippling the franchise.  They also make a lot of bad baseball decisions on big money guys.
       COMP (2) -- The Mets have some pieces in play on the team, especially on the pitching side, with more on the horizon.  They should be spending around $150M per year, since they're a New York team, so you have to think that spending will increase at some point.  However, a cloud still hangs over the team on the finances.
       QOL (3) -- I'm not a fan of New York City, as I freely admit it's too big for me, but it is New York City.  There are a nigh-infinite amount of things to do and restaurants to sample.  The best actors are here for plays, TV shows, and movies.  But it's still NY and it's still dirty.
       STAD (2) -- Citi Field is kind of bland for me and it's a tough offensive environment, but it's new and clean and the fans are loyal.

13.  Milwaukee (10 points)
       OWN (4) -- Mark Attanasio seems like a pretty devoted owner that is willing to go for it when the opportunity presents itself like it did a few years ago.
       COMP (1) -- The Brewers are not going to be good in 2014, their farm system is terrible, and I think they have a long road to hoe to get back to the playoffs.  They need to sell off some bad contracts, trade some good players, and rebuild the farm.  Plus, I would not want to say I'm teammates with Ryan Braun.
       QOL (2) -- I have never been to Milwaukee, but I'm going to guess it's not a ton of fun.  The weather is kind of rough and I can't imagine there's a lot of culture vultures up there.  But, hey, sausages!
       STAD (3) -- Miller Park seems kind of sterile and I'm not wild about retractable roofs, but I have to imagine their fans are extremely loyal to the team.

12.  Philadelphia (11 points)
      OWN (4) -- I don't much about David Montgomery, but he sure seems willing to keep this team well-funded for the payroll.  I docked him a point for the seeming unwillingness to admit it's time to rebuild.  The Phils just keep getting older.
      COMP (2) -- This team is on the decline and their farm isn't very good.  However, they may try and buy their way out of trouble on the free agent market in the coming years.
      QOL (3) -- Philly has a lot going on, the food scene is good, plus it's situated well for a trip to NYC, Boston, or Baltimore for the family if we were interested.
      STAD (2) -- Citizens Bank Park is tiny and seems kind of sub-par for being new.  The Philly fans are notorious for being rude, inconsiderate, and obnoxious, plus quick to turn on players.

11.  Arizona (12 points)
      OWN (3) -- Ken Kendrick and his ownership group seem OK, but the team has had some questionable financial moves over the years, with a lot of deferred debt that hamstrung the team for a while.  Currently, they're funding the team adequately.
      COMP (3) -- I'm not a huge fan of the work of GM Kevin Towers, but he's active and always trying to improve (at least in theory).  They have a good farm to supplement the majors, too.  The team in the present will be competitive.
      QOL (3) -- Phoenix is really nice if you like a desert climate.  In the summer, when I would be here most, it's hot like a sauna which is kind of a bummer.  But it's always sunny, at least.  There's not a whole lot of culture to the area, but the readily available Mexican and Southwestern food would appeal to me.
      STAD (3) -- I've been to Chase Field when the roof was closed and it resembles an airplane hanger.  The fans are pleasant enough, but because many are transplants from elsewhere, I would never feel like there were "true" fans.

10.  Atlanta (13 points - tie)
       OWN (3) -- Liberty Media Group owns them, but they've kind of treated the Braves like a line item with a fixed budget that can't be exceeded.  They're also moving the stadium from downtown to Cobb County, kind of like the Cranberry Township of Atlanta, and forcing it all on the taxpayers.
       COMP (4) -- They have a solid front office and always seem to be steady.  They'll make a move or two, if they feel they have a chance, which is all you can ask for.  The farm is pretty down right now, but there's enough in ATL to keep it solid for the next few years.
       QOL (3) -- I've never had a burning desire to visit Atlanta.  We connected through there a few times, but that's it.  There's a lot to do and you're relatively close to the ocean for vacation.
       STAD (3) -- As mentioned, the Braves are leaving the 1996 Olympic-built Turner Field for greener pastures in Cobb County.  There will be a new stadium while I'm there as a theoretical free agent, but who knows what it will be like and what the fans will be like.

9.   Cincinnati (13 points - tie)
      OWN (3) -- Bob Castellini seems pretty solid and he's kept the Reds well-funded.  They definitely have an upper limit on their payroll, though.
      COMP (4) -- The Reds are going to be there for the next few years and they have a few impact pieces still on the farm, even if the overall farm is so-so.
      QOL (3) -- Cincy is kind of a mirror image of Pittsburgh, but it can get a little rednecky in spots, too.
      STAD (3) -- Great American Ball Park is kind of cheesy and it's a bandbox, but their fans seem pleasant enough.  The tiebreaker is basically, 'would I rather live in ATL or CIN?' and it's come down to CIN.

8.   Washington (14 points - tie)
      OWN (5) -- The Lerners keep the Nats well-funded and want to win.  They're a premier destination for free agents because of the willingness to spend.
      COMP (4) -- The Nats are going to be good for the foreseeable future, but their farm is kind of blah.
      QOL (2) -- Washington is congested, humid as hell in summer, and government driven 1st, 2nd , and 3rd.
      STAD (3) -- The park looks nice, but Anacostia is sort of a neighborhood in transition.  The Nats are still "new" to the city and it's seems like most people that attend are lobbyists entertaining clients.

7.   Los Angeles (14 points - tie)
      OWN (5) -- Stan Kasten and the Guggenheim will spend whatever is necessary. They are the Yankees of the West.
      COMP (4) -- The Dodgers are going to be contenders, but they could get to be a conglomeration of all-stars and not a true team.  The farm is so-so, at best.
      QOL (2) -- LA is a sprawled-out mess that is also full of fake people, mostly transplants trying to parasite off of someone else in the city.  There's a lot to do, but no one to befriend to do it with.
      STAD (3) -- Dodger Stadium has a nice setting, but it sits in a sea of asphalt.  Their fans are basically hooligans and the ones that are normal come late and leave early.

6.   Colorado (14 points - tie)
      OWN (4) -- The Monforts seem solid, even if the one likes to do a little drunk driving, and pride themselves on having a high-character team that makes the region proud.
      COMP (2) -- I don't know if the Rockies have a direction to the franchise right now.  The team seems in lost on the competitiveness spectrum at the moment.
      QOL (4) -- Denver seems like a cool place to live with a lot of recreational opportunities.  It does snow in April and in October, occasionally.
      STAD (4) -- Coors Field has a good setting, even if it is mammoth, and the fans seem passionate.

5.   San Diego (14 points - tie)
      OWN (3) -- The Pads ownership has been in flux in recent years with the John Moores to Jeff Moorad transition falling apart. Ron Fowler recently bought them, but doesn't seem to be putting a lot of money into them.
      COMP (2) -- I have even less idea what direction the Padres are going.  They are trying to compete, but seem to have a ton of holes.
      QOL (5) -- If there's a perfect climate in the United States, it's here.  Great food, great climate, right on the beach.
      STAD (4) -- I really love the look of Petco, even if it is an offense suppressor.  Do the fans care about their sports teams with a beach at their beck and call?  For the tie between the 4 teams, it came down to living in a perfect climate.

4.  Pittsburgh (16 points - tie)
     OWN (3) -- Bob Nutting seems like a good person, but as an owner does not seem like he will ever fully invest to attain or retain all the necessary pieces.  This is a small-market team that will need to reload and occasionally totally rebuild.
     COMP (4) -- This team is built to compete right now and have a completely loaded farm to augment the talent as needed.
     QOL (4) -- Admittedly biased, but there's plenty to do in Pittsburgh.  It's very safe for kids, too.  Only the suspect climate loses a point here.  Low cost of living means you can stretch those FA dollars, too.
     STAD (5) -- PNC Park is pretty much a perfect ballpark with a perfect setting looking over the river and the city.  When the Pirates are winning, the fans will be ultra-passionate.

3.  St. Louis (16 points - tie)
     OWN (5) -- The Bill DeWitt group plows an unbelievable amount of revenue into the team and seems to make all the right baseball decisions.
     COMP (4) -- The Cards are going to be contenders for a long time, as their farm has given the team a ton of young talent to build on.  The farm is drying up a little bit, though.
     QOL (3) -- St. Louis is kind of dangerous in spots and there's not a ton of stuff to do.  It's a good, solid Midwest town, though.
     STAD (4) -- Busch is a very nice stadium and their fans are some of the best in baseball.  Just not a great view, though.  St. Louis won the tiebreaker because I think they're a better bet to stay a winner longer than Pittsburgh.

2.   San Francisco (17 points - tie)
      OWN (5) -- Peter McGowan and company have re-invested every dollar from their World Series run back into the team and kept the payroll high.
      COMP (3) -- The Giants are full of graybeards and kept players out of blind loyalty for past glory (Lincecum).  They need a rebuild, or at least a reload, and have a bad farm.
      QOL (4) -- Ton of things to do in San Fran, lot of great food and recreation, but...earthquakes.  Plus living in San Fran there's a high cost of living.
      STAD (5) -- AT&T Park looks absolutely gorgeous and you can hit a homer into the Bay.  Giants have very passionate fans.

1.   Chicago (17 points - tie)
      OWN (4) -- Tom Ricketts has a ton of money, but he seems hesitant to use it.  Also seems to be holding the City hostage for Wrigley improvements.
      COMP (3) -- The Cubs aren't great now, but their farm is top-notch.  It's only a matter of time before the Cubs start spending a ton of money.
      QOL (5) -- Chicago has everything you would want, as it's a major city.  The climate can be rough at times, but the food and the culture more than make up for it.
      STAD (5) -- It's Wrigley.  Baseball, at least the baseball from the good days, is meant to be played in a place like this.  With all of the Cubs' misery, the fans are undyingly loyal and passionate.  The lack of earthquakes and the city of Chicago are why the Cubs would be #1 spot.
     

The Hall of Fame Voting Consternation

On Tuesday, the voting results were announced for this year's Hall of Fame class for Cooperstown.  Three very worthy candidates were selected -- Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Frank Thomas, all 1st timers on the ballot.

In theory, Maddux should have been elected unanimously, but there are 579 voters and you can't get 579 people to agree on anything, let alone 579 curmudgeonly baseball writers, so that doesn't irk me as much as some.  For the record, Maddux was left off the ballot of 16 writers.  That's right, 16 voters didn't think his 355 wins (8th all time, the other 7 are all old-timeys back when pitching 400+ innings was routine) and myriad other accomplishments (4 straight Cy Youngs, 5 other top five finishes) were good enough.

Craig Biggio got 74.8% of the votes in his 2nd year on the ballot.  He fell short by 2 votes, including at least one known person who turned in a blank ballot to protest the Steroid Era.  Biggio should legally be allowed to drive to that person's house and punch him once in the face.

There were plenty of other worthy candidates (no, not you Jack Morris) on the ballot, but unfortunately they could for the most part be separated into two categories:

Known PED Cheat
Suspected PED Cheat Because Look at His Stats and Everyone Else Was Doing It

In the Suspected category, you have Jeff Bagwell and Mike Piazza.  Piazza was the greatest offensive catcher of all time, more than making up for his less-than-stellar reputation behind the plate.  He should have been in last year, let alone this year when he got 62.2%.  He'll get in, but he's going to have to wait longer than he should, all because he had some back acne, which can be a sign of steroid use.  Bagwell gets tagged with the "ripped physique", "never hit for power in the minors", "knew Ken Caminiti" cloud of tags, but he was never named on any report that has been published.

And then there's the Big 5 of Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, Sosa, and Palmeiro.  On stats alone, Bonds and Clemens are total no-brainer, inner circle Hall of Famers.  But all five of these guys tested positive AND lied about it, which for me is why I would never vote for any of them.  McGwire, Sosa, and Palmeiro all run different parts of the HOF worthiness spectrum for me, anyway.  Palmeiro infamous finger-wagging spectacle while under oath before Congress on PED use is a total game breaker for me.  Sosa forgetting how to speak English while before the same panel, likewise.  Bonds should be doing time in jail for perjury before a grand jury.

Andy Pettitte is going to be a borderline HOF candidate.  He tested positive for PED's and admitted he made a mistake.  For that reason, I would forgive him and consider him for the HOF.  The cover up is sometimes worse than the crime.

So what would my theoretical ballot have looked like?  Well when the BBWWA admits me for voting purpose in never years, I'll be able to vote for sure.  Here's what it would have been this year:

Maddux
Glavine
Thomas
Trammell
Piazza
Bagwell
Raines
Kent

Eight out of ten ballot spots taken.  I can't vote Biggio in until Kent gets in, as Kent was a far better offensive player and not as much of a compiler towards the end of his career.  I can't believe Trammell isn't in yet.

With all 1st ballot going in, none of the backlog has been reduced for next year's ballot.  The 2015 ballot has some huge names coming on with Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, and Gary Sheffield.  It's hard to see more than one or two backlogged guys getting through them, so the crowding on the ballots will continue for the foreseeable future.

Where will all the new TV money go -- nationally and the Pirates?

For the 2014 season, new national TV contracts kick in from ESPN, TBS, and Fox.  All together, each team's share will go from $23M to the range of $50M, per team, per year.  That's an increase of $27M.

With all this extra money being injected into the game, it's only logical to think that it's going to get reflected in free agents this offseason.  After all, min-scale salaries are governed by the Collective Bargaining Agreement and will still hover around $500,000.  Arbitration is heavily based off of counting stats and previous contracts, so any change in salaries there will be gradual.

This is the season of crazy contract demands, such as Robinson Cano wanting 10yr/$305M and Ervin Santana and his $100M contract demands.  Both of those guys are probably going to get 60% of those demands in the end.  Cano's case is interesting because his market is so, so limited, especially when he comes out with that number.  There are maybe 5 teams that can afford him -- Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Angels, and Red Sox.  The Mets are still building a contender and have said they don't want to spend on Cano.  The Red Sox have Pedroia.  The Angels have Howie Kendrick (who they're looking to move to re-allocate payroll to pitching) and a host of bad contracts already.  The Dodgers just signed a Cuban ex-pat to play 2B.

So that leaves the Yankees, realistically.  And they aren't going to bid against themselves, one would think.

Players like Shin-soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury will be in demand and they'll definitely get overpaid by someone, but it's hard to see it being a "good Lord" overpay.  I suppose it's possible that the middle tier of free agents, like a Scott Feldman/Phil Hughes type, will be the ones to benefit the most from the influx of TV money.  I can see some pitching needy team like the Twins or Rockies dropping a ton of shantovoes on them.

The Pirates are an interesting case, as they have already said that dedicating the $14.1M qualifying offer to A.J. Burnett would occupy too much of their offseason budget.  I've estimated that including arbitration cases (and non-tendering Garrett Jones) and pre-existing salary commitments the Pirates payroll stands at $60M going into 2014.  It was $65M on opening day 2013, plus they had a strong attendance season, and new TV revenue.

You would think that $75 to $80M would be a realistic payroll figure.  Some teams may be allocating a portion of that new TV money to paying down heavily leveraged debt.  That's their prerogative to do so.  But many teams are going to put it towards payroll, so you don't want to be left behind, either.

The Brewers Will Finish in Last Place in 2013

Just 5 days from now, the Pirates will embark on the 2013 season attempting to halt their epic losing streak before it is eligible to drink.  Personally, I think they'll do it (83 wins is my prediction), but this quasi-preview of the NL Central is going to focus mostly on the Milwaukee Brewers.

A couple of days ago, the Brewers fell prey to agent Scott Boras's Jedi Mind Trick and ended up signing "victim of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement" Kyle Lohse to a 3 year - $33M contract.  On the surface, $11M for the services of Lohse is not bad, except once you figure in that Lohse will be 34/35/36 during this contract and there is the nagging suspicion that he was a product of the St. Louis system.

Four seasons ago, Lohse had a 4.74 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP.  Three seasons ago it was 6.55 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP (in only 117 and 92 innings, respectively).  So now Lohse had this unbelievable renaissance at ages 32 and 33?  (Don't type PED's.  Don't type PED's.  Gaaaaahhh.  Too late).  So in 2012 he puts up a 16-3 record with a 2.86 ERA and 1.08 WHIP?

The kicker for the Brewers is that by signing Lohse, who declined a 1 year/$13.3M qualifying offer from the Cardinals, the Brew Crew forfeits their 1st round pick (17th overall) and the portion of their signing pool that goes with it (it was $2M last year).  In the new paradigm of draft rules, that money going out the window only decreases their options of signing players.  Last year, teams drafting in the 16-18 range had approximately $4.4 to $5.2M in their draft pool to spend on their top 10 round picks.  So now the Brewers will have $2M less than that to complete their draft, severely hampering their maneuverability.

Furthering complicating things for the outlook of the Brewers is the fact that Baseball America ranked their farm system 23rd.  The Brewers have no impact players on the horizon, especially of the Ryan Braun-Prince Fielder level.  There's an interesting mid-rotation starter in Wily Peralta, but not of the Gerrit Cole-Jameson Taillon tier of talent.

Even with the signing of Lohse, the Brewers rotation is dangerously thin.  Pirate-killer Yovani Gallardo will form a decent 1-2 punch with Lohse (assuming Lohse doesn't regress, as I expect he will), but after that it looks like the Brewers rotation will be Peralta, Mike Fiers, and Marco Estrada with Chris Narveson on the periphery.  It's not exactly a championship rotation.  Here's the part where I interject that the Pirates' rotation is not awe-inspiring, either.  But the Pirates are on the upswing with a great farm on the rise (7th overall) while the Brewers are, at best, treading water this year.

The Brewers have already been hit with the injury bug this year.  Perennially injured Mat Gamel took care of his yearly injury in February and is out for the year with a torn ACL.  Corey Hart was going to move to 1B to cover for his loss, but Hart was already recovering from his own January knee surgery and is not expected back until mid-May.

There's also the cloud hanging over Ryan Braun with the Biogenesis scandal of selling PED's...in which Braun's name came up.  This is after Braun escaped a PED suspension last year on a flimsy chain of custody excuse.

To complete their topsy-turvy offseason, the Brewers decided to light a bunch of money on fire and give Carlos Gomez a 3 year/$24M contract.  Yes, Gomez did have a huge 2012 with a .260/.305/.463 triple slash line.  Gomez hit 19 home runs, after never hitting more than 8 in a season (don't mention PED's, don't mention connection with Braun) and provided good defense in CF, but he's not the kind of player to warrant $8M a year.

So in short, I expect the Brewers to crater out this year and finish below the re-building Cubs.  Just spitballin' some numbers here, but I'll go with:
Reds -- 93 wins
Cardinals -- 90 wins
Pirates -- 83 wins
Cubs -- 73 wins
Brewers -- 71 wins

Clint Barmes Will Be Better...Right?

I'm not sure if I'm just whistling past the graveyard or not, but I think Clint Barmes will be better at the plate in 2013.  Last year was frustrating at the plate for Barmes as he sported a .229/.272/.321 triple slash line.  If uber-nerd terms that's a 593 OPS (should be around 700 for an average MLB'er), a .260 wOBA (should be around .330), and a 62 wRC+ (average is 100).

Out of 24 shortstops that had at least 450 plate appearances (Barmes had 493), Barmes finished 23rd out of 24 -- thanks Brendan Ryan! -- in terms of wOBA and wRC+.  In short, he sucked at the plate.

Too often fans treat players as robots that are immune to outside problems or pressures.  We expect them to perform the same as they did the previous year and never age or slump.  Barmes was signed before the 2012 season to a 2 year/$10.5M deal, easily the biggest payday of his career.  He was Clint Hurdle's handpicked free agent during the offseason, due to their time together at Colorado, and brought in for his defense and leadership abilities.  He was not expected to be a total black hole at the plate, though.

Perhaps he put too much pressure on himself and it just mushroomed on him.  But if you look at his 1st/2nd half splits, Barmes was halfway decent in the 2nd half.

1st half -- .204/.227/.298 (525 OPS, .230 wOBA, 41 wRC+)
2nd half -- .257/.322/.348 (670 OPS, .294 wOBA, 85 wRC+)

Are those 2nd half numbers fantastic?  No, but for a shortstop batting 8th in the lineup they're not outrageous either.  Coupled with his fantastic defense, rated 2nd overall to the aforementioned Ryan, that would be a pretty nice shortstop.  Even with his wretched bat last year, Barmes still put up a 1.7 WAR, so with his 2nd half numbers he would have been a 2.5 to 3.0 WAR player.  Not too shabby.

If Barmes would have put up his 2nd half numbers during the whole year, Barmes would have placed somewhere around 14th in the neighborhood of Rafael Furcal's .264/.325/.346 (.298 wOBA, 87 wRC+).  There wouldn't have been nearly the same amount of complaining.

I think Barmes is going to be more comfortable in his role this year and have a whole year more representative of what he did in the 2nd half.  And that will surely make the year go a little more smoother.

The Fall of the Yankee Empire

Sometimes when you're caught in a tidal wave, it's hard to lose perspective that an end is in sight.  It can't last forever.  Nothing does.  It sure seemed like The Yankee Empire (trademark pending) was going to last forever, but in recent years there have been signs that it is on the fade.  The year 2012 accelerated that point.

Every great empire has a strong leader (most of the time a dictator or a series of dictators) and the Yankees were no exception.  The first chink in the armor for them occurred on July 13, 2010 when George Steinbrenner died.  Steinbrenner ruled the Yankees with an iron fist and from the mid-90's to his passing they were not allowed to lose under his watch.  Prior to his death, his influence started to wane and his sons gradually took over control.  After his passing, Hank assumed the majority of control over the franchise.

Meddling still occurred (the phrase "to meddle" is probably on the Steinbrenner coat of arms), such as when Rafael Soriano was signed against GM Brian Cashman's wishes.  Plus the Alex Rodriguez re-up in 2007, after he opted out of a contract scheduled to run until 2010, reeked of interference from the ownership.  Especially the part with bonus clauses for certain home run milestones.

But by and large, spending has been restrained under the reign of Prince Hank.  Since 2010, the only long term deals of note under his watch were the re-signing of CC Sabathia (a decent enough deal for a top of the rotation pitcher) and the re-signing of franchise icon Derek Jeter (3 year - $51M from 2011 to 2013).  Heck, the Yankees even engaged in a salary dump with the Pirates by picking up about half of AJ Burnett's contract in exchange for 2 players that will never see the majors most likely (Diego Moreno and Exicardo Cayones).

The most major fissure in the Yankees empire though were two independent, yet related, events that happened in 2012.  The first was the sale of the Dodgers in May to the Guggenheim Group for $2 billion dollars.  Immediately, the Dodgers started throwing money around everywhere.  They traded for  nearly every bad contract on the Red Sox and tossed huge dollars to international players like Yasiel Puig and Hyun-Jin Ryu.  The second event was every story during the deadline and the offseason of 2012 involving the phrase "Yankees trying to get under the $189M luxury tax threshold for 2014".  This caused them to largely stay out of free agency this past offseason.  When they did dabble, it was mainly for 1 year deals.

The Yankees have a very old team.  Most of the time that means experienced, but in this case it also means that players are exiting their peaks and getting injury prone.  A-Rod recently got caught (again) to a PED scandal.  The Yankees are quietly trying to get out of the remaining 5 years and $114M they owe him by saying that his 2nd hip operation in 3 years may end his career.  If that happens, insurance will theoretically pick up 85% of the cost, which means they will owe him about $16M.  Most importantly, though, they get to take his approximately $23M/year off their payroll for luxury tax purposes in the retirement scenario.  Of course, that only works if A-Rod actually, you know, retires.  He defiantly denied involvement with the Biogenesis clinic and said he is working hard to come back in 2013 to continue playing.

The Yankees have 3 mega contracts on the books after 2013 -- Texeira, Rodriguez, and Sabathia.  Texeira is also on the downslope and on the books through 2016 at $23.125M/year.  Sabathia is still effective and on the books through 2016 at $23M/year (with a vesting option for 2017).  Jeter has a player option for $8M in 2014, so it's hard to see him turning that down, but $8M to the Yanks is not that much.

The Yankees will need to decide about the future of Robinson Cano after 2013.  It makes sense that the Yankees will sign him, as he is their top hitter, but it is not inconceivable that the Dodgers swoop in and grab him in free agency.  Curtis Granderson is also a free agent, but with his age and declining skills the Yankees won't make much effort to re-sign him.

The Yankees don't have much in the way of replacements at the AA and AAA level to immediately replace players after 2013, either.  The Yankees were banking on a wave of pitching led by Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos, and Michael Pineda, but all three have dealt with significant injuries and/or ineffectiveness.  The Yankees do have some potential impact hitters in the form of Mason Williams, Gary Sanchez, and Tyler Austin but all of them will probably spend the majority of 2013 at High A and not be ready for the 2014 season when some of these free agents depart.

With less and less high quality players reaching free agency during their peak years, it's hard to imagine the Yankees reloading for the 2014 season (when they want to stay under the $189M threshold) via free agency.  It's possible that Cashman uses players like Austin, Williams, and Sanchez in trades to accelerate the process by trading for younger major league players with multiple years of control.  But realistically, it seems as if there may be some lean non-playoff years after 2013.  With the rise of the Blue Jays and the continued success of the Rays, it's even possible that the Yankees have some losing seasons while they rebuild-but-don't-say-rebuild.  The last losing season for the Yankees was 1992 -- the mirror image of the last Pirates winning season.

The Yankees are in the largest media market and are willing to spend huge amounts of money, but they are no longer the top of the heap in baseball.  There may be some lean days ahead of them.

Super 2 Status Is Not Scary

The Pirates have been shopping Joel Hanrahan around for a while now, especially since they re-signed Jason Grilli to a 2 year deal for $6.75M last week.  With Hanrahan projected to make around $7.5M via his final year of the arbitration process, it just makes "Pirates sense" that committing nearly $10.5M in 2013 (out of a $70M payroll) to 2 relievers does not make sense.

In a bit of dot-connecting, one of the teams connected to Hanrahan are the Detroit Tigers after they re-signed Anibal Sanchez to a 5 year/$80M deal.  That leaves them with a theoretical excess of starting pitchers (even though a team usually needs 7-8 options).  The Tigers also lack a "proven closer", even though they have publically declared they will go with Bruce Rondon, so they could be a possible trade partner.

One of the trade candidates from the Tigers is Rick Porcello.  Porcello was a highly touted prospect after getting drafted 27th overall in 2007 (he dropped due to bonus demands).  He skyrocketed through the minors, thanks to the Tigers' typically aggressive promotion procedure, and made his debut in early April 2009.  Porcello has pitched nearly 4 full seasons and won't even be 24 until two days after this Christmas.  Porcello has had a good, not great, career to this point.  He is a sinkerball pitcher that pitches in front of perhaps the worst infield defense in the Majors, plus he does rack up a huge amount of strikeouts (typical of sinkerball pitchers).  Knowing Neal Huntington's love of sinkerballers, Porcello would seem like a natural fit.

Here's the interesting part about Porcello -- even though he has nearly 4 full seasons, Porcello still has 3 years of control left for either the Tigers or whatever team trades for him.  How is that possible?  It's possible because Porcello officially has 3 years and 170 days of service time.  In baseball terms, a year is considered 172 days.  Because the Tigers brought Porcello up a week into the 2009 season, they were able to buy a nearly full year of service from Porcello (he made 31 starts) and still reap the benefits of him to the maximum -- he pitched 170 innings a pitched to a 3.96 ERA/4.77 FIP/4.27 xFIP and produced 2 WAR as a 20 year old.

Because of those 2 days saved, Porcello became a Super 2 player in 2012 and was arbitration-eligible for the first time this year.  For Porcello's 2nd year of 4 in his Super 2 progression, he is projected to earn $4.7M.  Porcello has consistently produced 2 to 2.9 WAR in each of his 4 years, so he is a steal for his projected salaries going forward.  Imagine if he actually had a halfway decent defense behind him to catch some of his 52.3% ground ball ratio.

The moral of this story is that Super 2 is not something to be scared of or be concerned about as a fan.  The Tigers maximized their use of Porcello and could essentially have him for 7 full seasons.  The Pirates' Super 2 candidate, Neil Walker, has 2 years 166 days of service time, but approximately 30 days of that time is from his cameo appearance in September 2009.  The Pirates brought him up in late May 2010 for good, so they didn't reap the full amount of the season like the Tigers did with Porcello.

Teams have a financial interest to keep their players out of Super 2 status.  Instead of 3 full years at minimum scale and 3 years of arbitration, a Super 2 player has 2 full years of minimum scale (plus whatever time accrued during the call-up year) and 4 years of arbitration.  It's pricier for the team, of course, but for a team like the Tigers the benefits of a quality full year definitely outweigh the cost down the road.  If a player is good enough to help a team, he should be brought up just after the start of a season to gain the extra year of control -- Super 2 be damned.

Miami Marlins Hit The Ctrl-Alt-Del Button....Again

The electronic baseball world has been abuzz tonight with the rumors of a mega-trade/mega salary dump between the Miami Marlins and Toronto Blue Jays.  The final trade may not be confirmed until Wednesday, but the particulars of the trade seem to be as follows, with the 2013 salaries in parentheses:

Toronto gets -- Jose Reyes ($10M in 2013, $96M guaranteed remaining thru 2018), Mark Buerhle ($11M, $48M remaining thru 2015), Josh Johnson ($13.75M), Emilio Bonifacio ($2.5M estimate thru arbitration), and John Buck ($6M)

Miami gets -- Yunel Escobar ($5M in 2013, two club options thru 2015), Adeiny Hechavaria ($1.75M), Henderson Alvarez ($500K pre-arb), Jeff Mathis ($1.5M), Jake Marisnick (in AA in 2013), Justin Nicolino (in High A in 2013), and Anthony DeSclafani (in High A in 2013)

Where to begin....

Miami offloaded $43.25M of 2013 salaries and a total of $166.25M of future total salary commitments in exchange for a slew of younger players totaling $8.75M of 2013 salaries.  That's lopping of $34.5M of salary in 2013 and allowing them to now totally erase their 2011 offseason free agency binge (the Marlins traded another signee, Heath Bell, to the Diamondbacks last month).

Last year's offseason spree/binge that brought Heath Bell, Jose Reyes, and Mark Buerhle to South Florida, under the pretense that these players would help usher in a new era of Marlin success in a new ballpark, has now been eradicated.  Furthermore, those moves were made to justify the taxpayer-funded new ballpark constructed for the Marlins that opened JUST THIS YEAR.  Jeffrey Loria, the same man that ran the Expos into the ground and then sold them to MLB in exchange for the ability to purchase the Marlins, has completely defrauded the general populace of Miami.

But does anyone in South Florida care?  Are there really loyal Marlins fans at this point?  The term "fire sale" is pretty synonymous with the Miami (Florida) Marlins franchise dating back to the mid-90's when they bought a slew of free agents and won a title with Jim Leyland at the helm in 1997.  They burned that team to the ground and did so again in 2005 after winning the World Series in 2003.

It really is tough to be a Pirates fan at some points, like August and September of 2012 for example, but it must be nigh-impossible to be a Marlins fan.  At this point, how can any fan trust anything said as a commitment by this owner?  Just as importantly, how can any free agent agree to sign a multi-year deal with the Marlins at this point?

It has been said that the Pirates have problems attracting quality free agents due to perceptions about the competence of the front office and competitiveness, but that has to pale in comparison to the feeling on the street about the Marlins.  Imagine what the national and local media would say about the Pirates if they pulled a series of maneuvers such as getting taxpayer funding, making a massive multi-year investment in free agents, then selling those same free agents off after just one year (while also dealing another franchise cornerstone like Hanley Ramirez in-season).  It's just unbelievable that anyone would support the Marlins in 2013.

It's also equally unbelievable that Major League Baseball allows Jeffrey Loria to own a baseball franchise.

Offseason Target - Dan Haren

The Los Angeles Angels hold a $15.5M option for RHP Dan Haren's services in 2013.  If they choose not to exercise that option, and there are reports that they will not, the Angels will pay Haren $3.5M in a buyout and then try to find a pitcher to match or equal his production for the net $12M.

This season was not Dan Haren's finest.  In 2012, the age-31 Haren provided only 1.8 WAR by pitching 176 innings over 30 starts to the line of 4.33 ERA/4.24 FIP/4.00 xFIP.  Remember when Dan Haren was a great pitcher?  If not, it's because it happened alllllllll the way back in 2011.  This past season was the first season since Haren became a full time player back in 2005 that he did not pitch 200+ innings or accumulate at least 4.0 WAR in a season.  In 2011, he was worth 6.1.

Dan Haren never had a blazing fastball, but his velocity on it did drop from 90.0 mph in 2011 to 88.5 in 2012, which is a potential red flag.  Haren is primarily a 4 pitch pitcher, with his 4 seam fastball (88.5 mph), a cut fastball (84.6), a split finger fastball (83.5 mph), and a periodic curve ball (76 mph) as his arsenal.  Haren's 4 seam fastball has never been a great out pitch, but it eroded in 2012 with a -1.13 runs/100 pitches value.  His split finger has historically been hit most successful and it was true in 2012, with a +0.91 runs/100 pitches value.  As a point of reference to the reader, A.J. Burnett in 2012 had a range of +1.19 runs/100 on his curveball to a -1.10 runs/100 on his changeup, with his fastball at -0.09 runs/100.

In 2013, Haren will pitch the majority of the season at 32, which is not ancient by any stretch in baseball terms.  But how do you properly place value on a pitcher that is a consistent 4 to 6 win performer that suddenly drops to 1.8?  If you prescribe to the theory that the National League is the easier league, due to the pitcher spot and "weaker" lineups, then you could theoretically add 0.5 WAR to his value.  Even if you say Haren is a 1.8 win pitcher ($9M in free agent value, at $5M/WAR) to 2.3 wins ($11.5M), you're in the neighborhood of where it would make sense for the Angels to retain him, thanks to the large buyout of $3.5M.

Perhaps the Angels just want a change from Haren or perhaps they have the most information that his decline may be starting.  Even if Haren would pitch 176 innings and provide 1.8 WAR in 2013 as he did with the Angels in 2012, that still would have been the 2nd most innings and WAR by a Pirate starter this year (Wandy Rodriguez's split stats aside).  If you feel that Haren can provide an uptick in performance and re-establish himself as a 200 inning pitcher and 2.0 WAR, the 2013 Pirate pitching staff would then have three 200-inning horses in the stable with Burnett (202 IP in 2012), Rodriguez (205 IP combined in 2012), and Haren.

This move would continue to lengthen the Pirates' rotation and push McDonald down to the #4 spot.  At that point, the team would not be so reliant on his up-and-down nature and take his performance received as a bonus to what they get from Burnett/Haren/Rodriguez.  With the first four rotation spots set, the Pirates could keep the 5th spot between Locke and McPherson (if they intend to non-tender Karstens) until Gerrit Cole's performance is deemed worthy of a promotion to the Major League club.

Haren's market is probably murky at this point.  Will he be seen as a pitcher that needs to re-build value on an incentive-based contract?  Will a team snap him up immediately on a guaranteed contract for $15M/year?  Depending on how the Pirates read the tea leaves on Haren, would they be wise to shanghai Haren in a trade with the Angels and take him off the market?  Using the A.J. Burnett Model of Pitching Acquisitions, the Pirates could get the Angels to defray some of Haren's 2013 $15.5M salary in exchange for a fringe prospect.

However you want to define the Pirates' collapse of 2012, there are probably few who would debate the merits of continuing to bolster the pitching staff.  The more innings consumed by the starters means less innings absorbed by fringy middle relievers.  Having another workhorse like Haren would serve that purpose.

The Rise of the Athletic Class

There are three economic classes in the United States -- upper class, middle class, and lower class.  Sure, there's variations within each (upper middle, lower upper, lower lower), but it's basically those three.

Since the turn of the millennium, though, I would say that a fourth pseudo-class has formed --- the athletic class.  Although this case could be made about any of the four major sports, I'll just focus on baseball.  In 1992, on the cusp of free agency, Barry Bonds signed a 1 year - $4.7M deal with the Pirates.  At that time it was the largest in baseball and the minimum salary was approximately $105,000.  After the 1992 season, the Pirates offered him 5 years - $25M to stay, but he rejected them and signed with the Giants for 6 years and $43.75M.  The rest is roid history.

Today in 2012, Bonds' $4.7M is what a slightly above-average hitter can expect to make in his 2nd year of arbitration (think Garrett Jones this upcoming year), not in his 3rd year of arbitration like the great Barry Bonds.  In 2012, the minimum salary is $480,000, which is a figure that the common man can not relate to, unlike in 1992.  Think about Pirates' middle reliever Jared Hughes -- if he hangs around for 4 years, he'll have earned $2M probably, just as he turns 30.

For additional perspective, by the time Alex Rodriguez's current contract expires in 2017 (unlike his body which started to expire in 2011), he will have earned around $500M in salary.  That doesn't even count any endorsements.

What are today's athletes, especially the ones that get the first and second free agent deals, going to do with all their money?  Using the Yankees again, take recently acquired-from-waivers Derek Lowe.  When his current contract is done, he'll have earned over $110M.  Lowe was a very good, but not great, pitcher for many years.  He can take care of 5 generations of Lowes with his money, ensuring that they never have to worry about a job if they don't want one.

Will these athletes put their money to good use?  Will they help contribute to finding a cure for some disease?  Will they go back to their hometown and inject money in the business community or help them pave roads or aid the (most likely) struggling school system?

Or will they sit in their silo of money and roll around in it like Scrooge McDuck?  Watching the athletes perform today is interesting, but watching the next 10-15 years and see if there is any spillover effect from them earning all this money is fascinating.

Oh yeah...the Pirates

Now that the Greek flag is not flying prominently over the blog anymore, it's probably a good idea to get back to the topic of baseball.

A lot has changed in one month. Back on July 31st, the Pirates were still above .500, but at the start of their death spiral by preparing to get swept by the Phillies. That lead into the season-killing 0-7 homestand about the bottom feeding Cubs and Padres.

The month of August has not been kind to the Pirates, as they are 7-18 and any dreams of slaying the .500 Monster have evaporated. What happened?

Is it the injuries, especially to the starting pitching? The season long anemic offense finally rearing its ugly head? Regression to the mean?

Yes, yes, and yes.

The Pirates gave us long-suffering fans a lot to be proud of and cheer for through the end of July, which is much longer than we usually get. It's like people in Wisconsin getting one less month of brutal winter.

I don't regret advocating picking up players at the July 31st trade deadline, even though Lee and Ludwick were uninspiring to me at the time, and not "trading high" on Maholm and Hanrahan. Contending teams don't do that and at the time the Pirates were contenders, at least on paper.

Last season, I wrote about how the 2010 offseason would be "an inflection point" on the course of the Pirates. Maybe I was just a year ahead of myself, because I think the expectations have been raised now and the front office needs to capitalize on the goodwill garnered this season. I still don't think free agents are the answer, but in the offseason I will once again advocate for making trades for players with multiple years of control.

At least it beats 105 losses.

Ranking the Farm Systems - 2011

Last year I ranked all 30 farm systems and explained my criteria in doing so. Aside from my stunningly wrong Royals writeup, I feel like the rankings were pretty fairly done.

If you didn't click the link above, here's my basic feelings on ranking farms:
When I rank prospects and, by extension, farm systems I go by a 60% performance/40% potential. You can draft all the 18 year olds and sign 16 year old Latinos, but eventually they need to learn how to hit a curveball or throw a good changeup.

I believe that having talent in the upper minors (AAA and AA) bears more weight than what a rookie does in short season or low A. You need to have prospects at the key positions of C, SS, and CF. You need good strike zone discipline, both your K rate and BB rate, for a batter. You need to miss bats as a pitcher. And you need to be age appropriate.

A farm system should either help supply the ML team with cost-controlled talent or provide the GM with adequate chips to make trades at the ML level.

Keep in mind that these rankings are based only off of the Baseball America Top 10's for each team. So with no further delay, let's go in reverse order to properly build the suspense.

30. Mets - The Mets have 5 internationally signed players in their Top 10, and some are not very spectacular, so that shows how poor their June drafts have been. If a player like Brad Holt is your #10 (and I like him if he were a reliever, not a starter) you have some real problems. I see a lot of internationals with no plate discipline and players that will be on the corners in the OF. There's middle of the rotation pitchers (MORS) and a so-so 2B (Havens).

29. White Sox - The only reason the White Sox are not on the bottom of the list is Chris Sale. I feel both of these Top 10's equally suck and Sale is the only potential star of the bunch. There's a lot of present-day relievers in the Top 10, which is never a good sign, followed by guys coming off major injuries (Mitchell) and players that don't have enough power for their positions (Morel at 3B, for example). Kenny Williams' relentless trading has ravaged this system.

28. Orioles - The O's have graduated a ton of key players to the majors in the past 2 years (Weiters, Matusz, Tillman, for example) but haven't replenished the system very well in that timeframe. Manny Machado is their #1 and I feel that all the same things said about Tim Beckham at draft time in 2008 are being said of Machado. I like Britton at #2, but after that things fall way off the cliff. The #6 and #8 guys (Pelzer and Adams) were left exposed and unclaimed in the Rule 5 draft, so that may tell you some things. There are a ton of middle infielders who have no stick in this Top 10. Matt Hobgood, a 2009 1st rounder, didn't make this Top 10....all aboard, next stop Bustville!

27. Marlins - Like the O's, the Marlins have graduated some talent to the majors in recent years (Stanton, Morrison, Sanchez) and that has depleted the system. I feel like their system doesn't crater as badly after their top 2 guys, although it is not great overall. Lot of 2010 draft picks here and/or guys that didn't play much in a full season league yet.

26. Brewers - The Brewers burned their system to the ground in 2010. First Dylan Covey, their 1st round pick in 2010, was diagnosed with diabetes after draft day. He decided to not sign in order to go to college and learn to live with it. Then in December, the Brewers traded Cain, Jeffress, and Odorizzi (and young SS Escobar) to the Royals for Greinke. In the knee-jerk-reaction time after the trade, many nationals said the Brewers had the worst farm system as a result. I still think Rogers, Scarpetta, and Peralta are a decent 1-2-3 and there should be 2 useable starters out of that trio. The Brewers haven't drafted well in recent years and it is catching up to them on the farm.

25. Astros - This is a very young system, as 7 of the Top 10 were either signed in 2009 or 2010. But Jordan Lyles should be a steady #2 or #3 for the Astros as soon as June 2011. I really like Villar, who they obtained from the Phillies in the Oswalt deal. In addition to Villar, they also have DeShields and Mier at SS, as well. Bushue and Foltyniewicz are interesting enough to give the Astros an extra spot or two on these rankings.

24. Tigers - The Tigers, like the Astros, seem to have set up permanent camp in the bottom third of the farm system rankings. This system does have Jacob Turner, though, and 2010 draft bonus baby Nick Castellanos ($3.5M). The Tigers tried to replenish in the 2010 draft with Castellanos, Ruffin, and Smyly. There are still some future relievers in the Top 10. Crosby would give this system an upward tick if he would ever be healthy for a full season.

23. Red Sox - As with the Cubs, what you see on Baseball America is not what you get. The Red Sox traded Kelly, Rizzo, and Fuentes to the Padres in the Adrian Gonzalez deal. What was left is an uninspiring collection of #3's and #4's, an interesting SS (Iglesias) and some 4th OF'ers like Reddick. The Sox always draft well, though, so don't be surprised to see them move back up next year.

22. A's - Even though Grant Green may not stick at SS long term, his bat will play at 2B, even accounting for his Cal League-inflated numbers in 2010. Carter and Choice are nice power bats and there are enough MORS coursing through this Top 10. Beware the allure of high-priced international pitchers, as Michel Ynoa has been constantly injured and nowhere near this Top 10.

21. Cubs - Keep in mind that what you see on the BA list isn't the true Cubs Top 10 anymore. When the Cubs got Garza they traded Archer (#1), Lee (#4), and Guyer (#10) in the deal. Jackson and McNutt are still interesting, though. They have some guys that will contribute to the ML team in 2011.

20. Diamondbacks - The D-backs had a very young, unproven system last year, which led me to rank them #30. Well, in 2010, some of those guys stepped forth and showed that even though they have flaws, they may be able to get this farm moving. Jarrod Parker is back and should be healthy in 2011. As for the guys who boosted their stock, Matt Davidson jumped ahead of draft mate Bobby Borchering on the depth chart. Marc Krauss hit a ton of HR's. Tyler Skaggs and Pat Corbin came over in the Dan Haren trade. With the #3 pick and the #7 pick in the 2011 draft (for failing to sign Loux), the Diamondbacks are my pick to improve their ranking the most by this time next year.

19. Cards - Shelby Miller had a huge 2010 and established himself on the short list of top pitching prospects. The Cards also reloaded through the June draft and international front in 2010, with Cox and Jenkins from the States and Martinez internationally. All 4 of these guys are high end potential players. There's still a few too many #4 and #5 starters on this list.

18. Giants - After graduating Posey and Bumgarner (plus Thomas Neal coming back to earth in AA), the Giants take a little hit. Brandon Belt seems to be a found diamond and Zack Wheeler is still a quality young pitcher, but the real interesting guy to me is Peguero at #4. He refuses to take a walk, but you don't see a lot of guys with 19 2B's, 16 3B's, 10 HR's and 40 SB's in the minors.

17. Angels - Mike Trout is an absolute stud waiting his turn to patrol CF for the Angels. He may see the majors in September 2011, but he should be good to go in 2012. I love Segura at 2B with the same type of stat line that Peguero from the Giants put up, but with a touch more BB. Speaking of walks, if Fabio Martinez ever controls them on the mound, he will be a beastmaster too.

16. Padres - Thanks to the Adrian Gonzalez trade with Boston, the Padres re-stocked a farm system in desperate need of a talent infusion. Like the Brewers, the Padres were scorned by their 1st round pick in 2010, but it wasn't for medical reasons. Karsten Whitson simply didn't sign, which was a huge gaffe for the front office. But Kelly, Rizzo, and Fuentes from the Red Sox help augment the talent base of Simon Castro, Drew Cumberland, and Jason Hagerty. I still think Tate is a bust, the same as I said when he was drafted, and that Jaff Decker is a fire plug.

15. Mariners - Ackley, Pineda, and Franklin are a heck of a 1-2-3. The Mariners then added #4 prospect Tijuan Walker in the 2010 draft, a lively armed HS pitcher. It wouldn't be a Mariners Top 10 without a huge influx of internationals, but most of the ones on this list were obtained via trades. Chavez had a huge year at the plate, but remember the Cal League does crazy things, especially the M's home park of High Desert. Very solid system that should produce some players in 2011.

14. Dodgers - The Dodgers had an interesting year in the minors. They had some huge surprises (Sands and de la Rosa), some disappointments (Withrow, Martin), and a big surprise on draft deadline day when the signed the once-thought-unsignable Zach Lee. I think Webster and Robinson are too low at their current spots (#5 and #10). Dee Gordon keeps chugging along at #1 until someone reminds him that he is 5'-11" and 150 lbs.

13. Pirates - The Pirates graduated Alvarez, Lincoln, and Tabata from last year Top 10, but reloaded with Taillon and Allie in the draft. Owens, Locke, and Morris (along with Justin Wilson) formed a great rotation at AA that should carry forth to AAA in 2011, even if all 4 don't start there right away. With Anthony Rendon the presumed pick at 1-1 in 2011 and no major promotions from the farm, this should be a Top 10 system by national standards next year.

12. Twins - I've resigned myself to the fact that the Twins will always have a boring farm system. But they get results at the majors and that's all that matters. The Twins do have some interesting internationals in Sano, Kepler, and Arcia, but right now the system is led by Hicks (underachiever) and Gibson.

11. Reds - When you have a guy at your #1 spot that threw a fastball at 105 mph in the majors, that helps the ol' ranking. The Reds follow that up with Hamilton at #2 with his 48 SB's in short-season ball and breakout player Devin Mesoraco at catcher at #3. After that, the Reds have a ton of internationals with poor K/BB walks and some so-so pitchers, but it's these 3 that are controlling my ranking.

10. Nationals - Last year the Nats Top 10 was Strasburg, Norris, and bust. This year, one phenom was replaced with another phenom in Harper. Norris is still here after fighting through an injury plagued year, but now the Nats have Espinosa showing serious power and ready to play 2B in the majors. They also added Solis and Cole from the 2010 draft. Wilson Ramos was obtained in the Matt Capps trade with the Twins, so the Nats have definitely deepened things up.

9. Rockies - The Rockies always seem to have a vibrant system that never gets too high or too low in the rankings. Matzek has the #1 spot on lockdown for the time being, but behind him is Wilin Rosario at catcher and Arenado at 3B showing good power. The Rox added Tago, Parker, and Bettis in the 2010 draft and always have 1 or 2 toolsy internationals floating around the mix.

8. Indians - The Tribe is in full rebuild mode. They have populated this year's Top 10 with trade acquistions from the last 2 years (Knapp and Hagadone, plus the since-graduated Santana) and some solid, if unspectacular, draft picks in Chisenhall, White, and Kipnis. I'll be curious to see how Pomeranz does, as he was someone I thought the Pirates may have taken in 2010.

7. Blue Jays - In his short time on the job, GM Alex Anthopolous has rebuilt much of the farm's scorched earth left behind by JP Riccardi. He obtained Kyle Drabek and Travis d'Arnaud in the Halladay trade. He traded for Anthony Gose with HOU after they obtained him in the Oswalt trade. He got Lawrie in the offseason's trade for Shawn Marcum. And he's done a pretty good job himself in the drafts it seems.

6. Rangers - The Rangers graduated some talent in recent years, but they also traded some away during their playoff run. Gone are Smoak and Beavan. The frustrating Michael Main is with the Giants now. The Rangers reloaded a bit in the 2010 draft, but they still have Perez at #1 and the intriguing Profar at #2. This may be a touch high for them, but I'm thinking their potential will come through big time in 2011.

5. Phillies - This Top 10 has a little bit of something for everyone. Power/speed OF? Check. (Dom Brown). Power hitting 1B/OF with plate discipline? Yep. (Jonathan Singleton). A trio of young, fireballing pitchers? Mmm hmmm (May, Cosart, Colvin). Catcher? Bingo. (Valle). Toolsy high-upside OF's? Right again. (James and Santana). If this system seasons for another year, it could be #2 next year.

4. Braves - The Braves have an enviable collection of arms in their system, headlined by the exquisite Julio Teheran. The 20 year old will split 2011 between AA and AAA most likely. He is joined on the list by high end guys like Delgado, Vizcaino (injury flag, though), and Mike Minor. The only bat of interest is Freedie Freeman, and I'm not a huge fan, but the pitching is what defines this list.

3. Yankees - It pains me to say how good the Yankees farm is, although it's not as good as John Manuel thinks by recently putting 4 Yankees in the 20 overall top prospects. But this is the land of the catchers, as Montero/Sanchez/Romine are in 3 of the 10 slots. Banuelos and a resurgent Bettances are also great options. Even Brackman is showing some signs of life.

2. Rays - Not only is the farm good now with Hellickson headlining a group that includes Jennings, Moore, and McGee, but because of all the compensation picks accrued by the Rays from free agents leaving, they will have 12 picks in the first 3 rounds. There will probably be some safe picks, but you have to think the Rays will augment their talent base tremendously come June.

1. Royals - What do you get for the system that has everything? The Royals have a #6-10 that is better than some teams #1-5. Everything went right for the Royals on the farm in 2010. Hosmer and Moustakas overcame dreadful 2009's to explode in 2010. Wil Myers dominated in 2010. Pitching was excellent thanks to Montgomery, Lamb, Duffy, and Dwyer. And then the cherry on top was the addition of Odorizzi, Cain, and Jeffress in the Greinke trade. There won't be many, if any, defections from the minors to the majors in 2011, so it wouldn't surprise me to see the Royals at #1 next year.