Don't Extend Pedro Alvarez, Pirates

 Recently, the Atlanta Braves extended their 1B Freddie Freeman with an 8 year/$135M contract.  Freeman was just entering his first arbitration year, so this contract buys out those first three years plus five free agent years.  The cost breakdown per year is:

2014 – $5.125M (w/ $2.875M signing bonus)

2015 – $8.5M

2016 – $12.5M

2017 – $20.5M

2018 and 2019 – $21M

2020 and 2021 – $22M

He’ll finish this contract up in his age-31 season and be ready, injuries aside, to look for another 5-6 year deal probably.

Pedro Alvarez is entering his first arbitration-eligible season and negotiated a contract for $4.25M for the 2014 season.  At first blush, he and Freeman seem to be on the same salary track, so one would think that the Pirates should follow suit and think of extending their power-hitting third baseman.

But they shouldn’t.  Because Pedro Alvarez isn’t that great of an offensive player.

In fact, the Pirates should stick with Alvarez in 2014 and 2015, then re-evaluate the texture of the team.  If they are a title contender for 2016, then they should keep Alvarez and become comfortable with letting him walk after the 2016 season for draft compensation.  If they don’t think they’re a contender, then the Pirates should trade him after 2015 for a package of prospects to reload on the fly.

The thought of not having Alvarez around, a season after he hit 36 home runs, causes some fans to have panic attacks and rail against the Pirates’ for being cheap by not extending him.  Rather, it’s my contention that the Pirates would be smart to just play out the string with Alvarez and let him walk away as a free agent or trade him with one year of control left.

It’s the Linus Blanket Syndrome.  The fear of losing a security blanket, in this case all the DINGERZ that Alvarez hits, causes people to worry.  But aside from home-runs, Alvarez does not contribute much to the offense.

Let’s compare Alvarez to Freeman:

2013 Stats	Alvarez	Freeman
OPS	770	897
BB %	7.8%	10.5%
K %	30.3%	19.2%
WAR	3.1	4.8
wRC+	111	150

wRC+ stands for Weighted Runs Created over Average.  What this means is that Alvarez created 11% more offense than an average player, while Freeman created 50% more offense than an average player.

So by raw numbers, it’s pretty obvious that Alvarez would not be worth Freeman’s contract, even though Alvarez hit 36 DINGERZ to Freeman’s 23.  There are other facets of the offensive game that Alvarez does not contribute to and, in fact, hinders thanks to his high strikeout rate.

The strange part about the Freeman deal is that I don’t think he’s worth it.  Up until the 2013 season, Freeman was just slightly above-average when it came to offense for a 1B.  His excellent 2013 season was based on a very high .371 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play), where the average player is typically .300 to .310 and Freeman was a .320 career BABIP coming into 2013.  So there is some regression due to happen for Freeman, most likely, in 2014.

Also, the 2014 season will be Alvarez’s age-27 season.  The Pirates potentially control him through his age-29 season, so they may be seeing the best years he has to offer anyway, as players with 30% strikeout rates and low batting averages do not age well (Adam Dunn is Example A).

The end of the world will not occur if El Toro is not extended or if he’s allowed to leave in a few years.  Actually, it would be good business sense to not be weighted down by a potential albatross contract.

Reviewing my 2010 pre-season Pirate predictions

In an effort to provide an internal audit of my posts, I thought I would go back and re-visit my 2010 Pre-Season Pirates Predictions post.
Listed below is the original prediction and comment in italics, with my new thoughts in bold.

1. The Pirates will win 76 games -- OK, I've covered this one in my WAR-based analysis of the team. Give me a +/- of 2 wins on this one. I think the makings of a winning team will start to materialize this season.
When I said +/- 2 wins, I really meant to say +/- 20 wins. Yeah. That's it. The "what the heck went wrong" with the 2010 Pirates will be coming shortly as its own post.

2. Robbie Grossman's LH-hitting struggles will continue and he will give up switch hitting -- As a RH hitter his OPS was 897 and his K-rate was 24%. As a LH hitter his OPS was 679 and his K-rate was 40%. I think if the trend continues up to mid-season, he will abandon switch-hitting.
This is a good news/bad news situation. The good news is that Grossman's K rate as a LH hitter dropped to 25%. The bad news is that his OPS stayed at 668. The even worse news is that as a RH hitter his OPS dropped to 746 this year and his isolated power was bad from both sides (.114 and .095, respectively). So Grossman still has a sizeable platoon split, but that the switch-hitting experiment will continue.

3. Quincy Latimore will continue to show that he is not a prospect -- Admittedly, I seem to have an ax to grind with Latimore. I think it's just that people want so badly for him to be a prospect when in reality he is not even close. His K/BB rate last year was 25%/5% with a .251 BA, 3 steals, and poor defense as a LF. The BB rate will not play as he continues to move up. He is already low on the defensive spectrum. He doesn't make great contact and he's not fast on the bases. Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?
Latimore put together a .266/.323/.444 line in 2010 for a 767 OPS. This constitutes a career high in OPS for Frederick Quincy Latimore. Most of this was built off of an insane August that had a 942 OPS, which was far and away the outlier to his monthly numbers. But he had one last year too in July and numbers count no matter when you put them up.
Latimore had 30 BB and 136 K's in 518 AB's for a 6% BB rate and a 27% K rate. His 2011 in AA will be very telling.

4. Pedro Alvarez will hit .260 with 20 HR's but a 30% K rate in the majors -- Pedro will show us enough to warrant setting the Excitement Meter to 10 in 2011. Cutch-22 spoiled us last year with an electric debut. I think Pedro will be more of a rookie with his struggles, but ready to explode in 2011.
Pedro had a very herky-jerky debut. He was ice cold in June (411 OPS), took off in July (especially after the All Star Break, had a 855 OPS), came back down in August (735 OPS), and then terrorized pitchers with a 932 OPS in September and giving us all a glimpse of what could be in store in 2011.
Pedro hit .256/.326/.461 (787 OPS) with 16 HR's and a 34.3% K rate. Not bad on the estimates all the way around. His struggles against lefties were a little disconcerting at times.

5. Andrew McCutchen will more or less consolidate his gains in 2010 -- I'm not saying he'll have a Sophomore Slump, but rather he will put a similar line to his .286/.365/.471 2009 season. His counting stats will increase proportionally, not exponentially as some are hoping/predicting.
Cutch-22 will get his own follow-up post about his 2010 season, but here was his final line for 2010:
.286/.365/.449
Seriously. His BA and OBP were exactly the same as 2009. That about as close to "he will put up a similar line" as you can get. He hit 16 HR's and stole 33 bases which were a mild disappointment for how he started the season, but fairly close to proportions from 2009 (His rough proportional totals would have been 17 HR's and 31 SB's). I think we have established Cutch-22's baseline.

6. Tony Sanchez will put up a season in 2010 that will make Ryan Doumit expendable -- I think Sanchez ends 2010 in Altoona and has a season significant enough to warrant Huntington trading Doumit in the 2010 offseason. Jaramillo will hold the fort in 2011 until Sanchez is ready to come up.
This one was looking like another good prediction until Brad Holt parked a fastball into Sanchez's cake-cruncher in June. He was out the rest of the season. His offense was just as good as last year up to that point, but his defense suffered from a lingering shoulder injury, causing Sanchez to only throw out 15% of baserunners. He will need all of 2011 in the minors, hopefully split between AA and AAA.

7. Zach Von Rosenburg will fail to live up to the lofty expectations in 2010 -- It actually semi-pained me to type that, but I think his present stuff (high 80's FB, shaky secondary stuff) will get him lit up in full-season ball in 2010. He was always more of a projection than a present-day stud, so I think folks will see sub-par numbers and write him off. Similar to Quinton Miller last year.
ZVR spent the whole season in State College, which was a mild disappointment in and of itself. He also started the season off slowly with some less than stellar numbers until his last 10 starts. ZVR put up a 2.11 ERA in 47 IP, giving up 42 hits, allowing 10 BB, and striking out 35. The fastball is still in the high 80's though, and his stuff was not swing and miss this year. His season was better than Quinton Miller's 2009, but there is still something that needs to shine with ZVR.

8. Diego Moreno and Brock Holt are going to have breakout seasons in 2010 -- Holt seems like a slightly lesser version of Chase D'arnaud to me and you saw how his 2009 season went. I think Moreno is going to be a fast-mover this year and put himself in the prime discussion for a bullpen spot in 2011.
This was a spot-on prediction, too, but with some qualifiers. Moreno humiliated High-A hitters and was moved up to Altoona where he had success as well. However, he was disciplined for behavioral problems and demoted for a short time back to High-A. He wound up back with Altoona by the end, though. He is now said to be the best reliever in minor league baseball by Baseball America.
Holt got off to a scorching .351/.410/.438 (848 OPS) in Bradenton until he ripped his ACL in June. He should be back and fine in 2011 and hopefully will see Altoona sooner rather than later.

9. John Russell and Neil Huntington both get extensions -- I think NH deserves 3 more years to see his work through. It usually takes 3-4 years to see a draft class come up to the surface so he needs AT LEAST 2011 to see his 2008 class, right? Plus, I have agreed with the concepts of his trades, if not all the pieces received. As for Russell, I'm not thrilled about this part of the prediction, but I think they will give him 2 years (2011/2012) to actually have some impact players to work with and make a go of it. 2 more years of wanting to use a defribrulator on him during his press conferences.
I got this one right too, but again there were qualifiers. The Pirates actually secretly extended both Russell and Huntington in October of 2009 for the 2011 season and never told the media or the public. Then, Russell went and dropped a 105 loss season on Pittsburgh and was fired this week.
Huntington will (theoretically) go into 2011 GM'ing for his job and a future longer extension.

10. Nutting brings in a minor partner to the ownership group -- Unless his will is made of complete iron, I think Nutting hears the natives beating the drums. He will try to appease them by finding a partner willing to infuse a small percentage of cash into the enterprise. It will be a local businessman, not Lemieux/Burkle, that has been out of the public's radar screen.
This was the boldest of my 10 predictions and did not happen. However, I have recently said that this offseason is an Inflection Point for the future of this franchise and Nutting's financial committment is at the forefront.

All in all, not too bad on the predictions, aside from the most important one about the win total!

Tampa Bay v. Pittsburgh 1-1 and 1-2 -- are we even now?

Pedro Alvarez debuted last night for the Pirates, just two years after being drafted in the first round, second overall (1-2). That year in 2008, the Tampa Bay Rays were drafting 1-1 (hard to imagine they sucked that bad just 3 years ago, huh?) and selected Tim Beckham, a high school SS.

Now in 2008, Tampa was in the midst of one of the all-time turnaround seasons. They finished with the worst record in 2007, which allowed them to draft 1-1, but in 2008 they were leading their division and on the way to their first ever playoff series.

They were buoyed by a fantastic pitching staff, with a plethora of arms in the minors making their way through the system (Price, Davis, McGee, and Hellickson). They had a resurgent Carlos Pena, a developing BJ Upton, budding superstar Evan Longoria, and the always dependable Carl Crawford. Not only were they on their way to a run in 2008, it seemed as if their window was going to be open for a couple of years before they had to be concerned about payroll.

Pedro Alvarez would have been the perfect selection. As college hitters they could have been up in 1-2 years, perfect to hit the contention window.

But Tampa blinked...and selected Beckham. A few weeks ago, I said that the Pirates should have selected Pomeranz in order to maximize the window of opportunity we have with Cutch-22 and Alvarez. This is another example of how a team dropped the ball by not matching the development timelines. A high school SS, if he sticks at the position, is going to need 3 years at a minimum and more likely 4, if not 5 to get to the majors. By that time in 2011-2013, Tampa risked losing Pena, Crawford, and some of their pitching to payroll concerns or free agency.

Today Alvarez is with the Pirates and Beckham is struggling in High A. As of this writing, he's hitting .219/.309/.375 (684 OPS) with a 12.5% BB rate and 30% K rate. He is also said to be developing a thick lower half that will proclude him from playing SS long-term. So where will that bat play?

This made me reflect back to 2002 when the draft order was reversed. The Pirates were drafting 1-1 and Tampa was 1-2. BJ Upton was considered to be the top player in the draft (similar to Alvarez in 2008) but the Pirates panicked and went "safe" with Brian Bullington. At his press conference to introduce him, Littlefield announced that Bullington projected to be a good #3 starter. I almost fell out of my chair. We just used the top overall pick on a POSSIBLE mid-rotation starter?!?

Well, as most of you know, Bullington was an epic bust. Upton has had an up and down career and had to shift to CF from his original SS position, but he has had some success (way more than Bullington, obviously).

So I was wondering...with Beckham not really lighting it up and having more bust than boom potential at this point, are we now "even steven" with Tampa in terms of blowing 1-1 picks with each other?

So how much would a good team cost?

I'm a big believer in getting value out of something. I cringe when people call me thrifty...I prefer to think of it as being smart with my money. Me saving money on things throughout the week enables me to spend money on the weekend or fun vacations down the road (and even then I'm on the lookout for deals).

So what's this have to do with baseball? I'm getting to that.
The Pirates have the lowest payroll in MLB this year at around $39M. Most of that is because they are rebuilding with youth and those players don't cost a lot, especially their first 3 years.

But even with Cutch-22, Walker, Tabata, Lincoln, Meek, and soon Pedro up and making the minimum wage essentially, there are huge holes in this lineup. And not all those holes can be filled internally. It's time to look outside for either higher quality trade acquisitions or through free agency.

It got me to thinking....if I were a fan of team that actually um...spent money...how much money would you need in the payroll for a good team?

The numbers below are all first-cut numbers. I don't have any A-Rod's on this team for $25M. No matter how good he is, nobody is worth that over an extended period. There are also certain positions that I don't think you should spend a lot of money on (like catcher, for instance, due to wear and tear).

Also keep in mind that a good farm system should supply the major league team with 1 starter and 1 bench/bullpen guy each year. So you'll see in this example some guys in the 0-3 camp making minimum, and the guys who have progressed out of that to the arb camp (typically $2M - $6M as you go through arb). For the arb guys, I assumed an average salary of $4M, taking into account the 3 years of arb.

Catcher - $4M
1B - $12M
2B - $425K (0 to 3 guy)
SS - $5M
3B - $10M
LF - $10M
CF - $4M (Arb guy)
RF - $6M

Bench C - $600K
Bench IF - $2M
Bench IF - $425K (0 to 3 guy)
Bench OF - $1M
Bench OF - $2M

SP1 - $12M
SP2 - $8M
SP3 - $4M (Arb guy)
SP4 - $4M (Arb guy)
SP5 - $425K (0 to 3 guy)

CL - $5M
SET - $2M
SET - $2M
RP - $425K (0 to 3 guy)
RP - $700K
LP - $2M
LP - $425K (0 to 3 guy)

Total - $98M'ish

Last year in 2009, $98M would have put you in 12th place, right between the White Sox and the Braves. That's $5M ahead of the Cards, so you can see that all of those teams are real honest-to-goodness competitive teams.

You can see how far the Pirates still have to go. Kind of depressing, even on the precipice of Pedro coming up to the big team.

Timing the prospect waves

The Rule 4 MLB draft is less than 2 weeks away and it seems as if things are coming into focus a little more clearly.

Unless the Pirates are playing things real close to the vest, it seems as if the 3 choices on their plate (assuming Harper goes to the Nats, as presumed) are:

Drew Pomeranz LHP - Ole Miss

Manny Machado SS - HS in Florida

Jameson Taillon RHP - HS, Woodlands, TEX

I've contended that the Pirates front office, specifically Neal Huntington and Greg Smith, want no parts of drafting a HS pitcher early in the first round and committing upwards of $6-8M. They are very comfortable cherry-picking guys in the later rounds who were "tough signs" out of high school and getting them for $1-2M. Plus, NH has made some comments on radio shows about wondering how a HS kid can square up on Taillon's high-90's fastball.

So in my mind, the Pirates are deciding between Pomeranz and Machado.

Pomeranz sits in the 90-93 mph range with his fastball, has a high 70's curveball said to be his out pitch, and an average changeup at this point. He has a fantastic K rate, but a so-so BB rate. To me, he could be a #2 pitcher.

Machado got an unfair "Alex Rodriguez" comp about a month ago....a lazy comp because they are both of Latin descent and from Florida. He is said to have the range and actions to stay at SS with moderate power and average speed.

In my mind, though, I would take Pomeranz because you can line him up with our current talent wave getting ready to crest in Pittsburgh. I believe, as do most rational Pirate fans, that our future for the next 6 years will start and end with the success of Pedro Alvarez. Thanks to gaming his clock in 2010, we will have his services from 2011 to 2016 before Emperor Boras whisks him off to a big market city upon free agency.

If Pomeranz is selected, he can start 2011 in A+ and get to AA by the end of the year. A tune-up and arb gaming session in 2012 in AAA and...voila! June 2012 he can be on the mound. At that time, Pedro will be rounding into shape in his 2nd full year. Cutch-22 will be in his last pre-arb year. Tabata will be patrolling the OF, Lincoln will be in the rotation along with Bryan Morris, and Walker will be super-subbing all over the place. It's not hard to imagine that with a bonus prospect making the jump and/or a well-timed free agent signing that the Pirates could be on the edge of the wild card.

Meanwhile, if you draft Machado in 2010, here's his timetable:

2011 - Low A

2012 - High A

2013 - Double A

2014 - Triple A

2015 - Majors

By that time, you are breaking a rookie SS into a lineup with Cutch-22 in his last arb year (possibly his last in PGH) and Alvarez one year behind him. You are not taking advantage to the fullest of Cutch-22 and Alvarez's time together due to the extra development time needed.

Machado may have the higher upside, but Pomeranz is forecasted to be decent in his own right. Plus, he will get here quicker.

All that said - it seems as if the Pirates are leaning towards Machado.

Pirates' Minor Leaguers - opening weekend

The minors started on Thursday (the 2nd opening day of the baseball season) and so far, the majority of the Pirates' top prospects and key players have gotten off to good starts.

The power hitters are hitting for power, the speed guys are stealing bases. And we have some 2nd and 3rd tier guys stating their cases as well.

At West Virginia (Low A), the bats were slow to start the season, but Jarek Cunningham is batting .375. Off the radar guy David Rubenstein is batting .400 in the early going and Evan Chambers has more BB than K's. Quinton Miller had a nice debut start going 5 IP, 1 run (unearned) with 1 BB and 3 K's.

In Bradenton (high A), the bats have been on fire in the supposedly-pitcher friendly FSL. Robbie Grossman is batting .500 thru the first 3 games with 2 BB and zero (!!!) K's. He may not have gone 3 consecutive games at any point last season without striking out. Starling Marte is off and running (.364) and DBS whipping boy Quincy Latimore is at .400 with 1 HR and 2 BB's. But the star at the plate has been Jeremy Farrell, heretofore a 3rd tier prospect at best. He is hitting .455 with 3 HR's and 12 RBI's. On the mound, both Locke and Morris have pitched decent starts their first times out. Hopefully, they move up sooner than later.

At Altoona, most of the bats have been slow to start, but Jordy Mercer is swinging at a .417 clip with 1 SB. Chase D'arnaud is only at .214 in the very early going. Jared Hughes had a decent first start with 5 IP, 4 K's and 1 R allowed.

In Indy, the future-is-now crowd of Alvarez, Tabata, and Lincoln have a mixed bag of results. Pedro has only 3 hits (.176) but all 3 are HR's and he already has 3 BB's. Tabata is batting .350 with a couple of 2B's and 2 SB's. Lincoln had a rough first game, giving up 3 HR's but did strike out 4 in his 3 IP. Walker is living up to his name, with 3 BB and 0 K's so far. And Pearce is making a case for getting a call up with a .471 start.

Hard to believe the minor league season is already nearly 3% done. Where has the time gone?

Bold and semi-bold predictions for the 2010 Pirates and the minors

One of the reasons I started this blog is so that I can go back periodically and re-read my stuff to see what level of idiocy I may/may not have been espousing. No one seems to back-check their opinions on the Interwebs, but I intend to go back and grade these predictions:

1. The Pirates will win 76 games -- OK, I've covered this one in my WAR-based analysis of the team. Give me a +/- of 2 wins on this one. I think the makings of a winning team will start to materialize this season.

2. Robbie Grossman's LH-hitting struggles will continue and he will give up switch hitting -- As a RH hitter his OPS was 897 and his K-rate was 24%. As a LH hitter his OPS was 679 and his K-rate was 40%. I think if the trend continues up to mid-season, he will abandon switch-hitting.

3. Quincy Latimore will continue to show that he is not a prospect -- Admittedly, I seem to have an ax to grind with Latimore. I think it's just that people want so badly for him to be a prospect when in reality he is not even close. His K/BB rate last year was 25%/5% with a .251 BA, 3 steals, and poor defense as a LF. The BB rate will not play as he continues to move up. He is already low on the defensive spectrum. He doesn't make great contact and he's not fast on the bases. Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?

4. Pedro Alvarez will hit .260 with 20 HR's but a 30% K rate in the majors -- Pedro will show us enough to warrant setting the Excitement Meter to 10 in 2011. Cutch-22 spoiled us last year with an electric debut. I think Pedro will be more of a rookie with his struggles, but ready to explode in 2011. Speaking of Cutch-22....

5. Andrew McCutchen will more or less consolidate his gains in 2010 -- I'm not saying he'll have a Sophomore Slump, but rather he will put a similar line to his .286/.365/.471 2009 season. His counting stats will increase proportionally, not exponentially as some are hoping/predicting.

6. Tony Sanchez will put up a season in 2010 that will make Ryan Doumit expendable -- I think Sanchez ends 2010 in Altoona and has a season significant enough to warrant Huntington trading Doumit in the 2010 offseason. Jaramillo will hold the fort in 2011 until Sanchez is ready to come up.

7. Zach Von Rosenburg will fail to live up to the lofty expectations in 2010 -- It actually semi-pained me to type that, but I think his present stuff (high 80's FB, shaky secondary stuff) will get him lit up in full-season ball in 2010. He was always more of a projection than a present-day stud, so I think folks will see sub-par numbers and write him off. Similar to Quinton Miller last year.

8. Diego Moreno and Brock Holt are going to have breakout seasons in 2010 -- Holt seems like a slightly lesser version of Chase D'arnaud to me and you saw how his 2009 season went. I think Moreno is going to be a fast-mover this year and put himself in the prime discussion for a bullpen spot in 2011.

9. John Russell and Neil Huntington both get extensions -- I think NH deserves 3 more years to see his work through. It usually takes 3-4 years to see a draft class come up to the surface so he needs AT LEAST 2011 to see his 2008 class, right? Plus, I have agreed with the concepts of his trades, if not all the pieces received. As for Russell, I'm not thrilled about this part of the prediction, but I think they will give him 2 years (2011/2012) to actually have some impact players to work with and make a go of it. 2 more years of wanting to use a defribrulator on him during his press conferences.

10. Nutting brings in a minor partner to the ownership group -- Unless his will is made of complete iron, I think Nutting hears the natives beating the drums. He will try to appease them by finding a partner willing to infuse a small percentage of cash into the enterprise. It will be a local businessman, not Lemieux/Burkle, that has been out of the public's radar screen.

OK, there you go. 10 predictions. We'll see in October how I did.

Pedro Alvarez v. Alex Gordon - something to give you pause

I've always felt that the Royals are the "doppleganger" to the Pirates in the American League. I've been reading lately about the frustrations that some fans are feeling regarding the heretofore unimpressive career of Alex Gordon, their "3B of the future" who was going to come in and anchor their lineup for a decade.

Now, he has broken his thumb and will miss the next 3-4 weeks. He has already missed time with a variety of injuries during his first 3 seasons.

Alex Gordon was seen as a sure-thing when he was drafted and during his 1 year in the minors that he annihilated. He was also said to be above-average defensively (something not said about Pedro).

Then I looked into the numerology of it and had to suppress a little dry heaving.....
Alex Gordon drafted 1-2 in 2005
Pedro drafted 1-2 in 2008

Alex Gordon's first season in minors --- .325/.427/.588 (1.016 OPS) with 29 HR/101 RBI
Pedro's first season (combined) --- .288/.378/.535 (914 OPS) with 27 HR/95 RBI

Alex Gordon born February 10
Pedro born February 6

Alex Gordon pre-debut rated 13th best by BA
Pedro pre-debut rated 12th best by BA

Alex Gordon after debut season rated 2nd best by BA
Pedro after debut rated 8th best by BA

By all accounts, although the stats are similar, Gordon had more hype going into his debut MLB season and better numbers to back him up. To date in the majors he has hit 37 HR TOTAL with a 746 OPS.

Just gave me a little pause as to what can happen to "sure-thing" prospects.

We sort of need Pedro to be better than that. It would, you know, help things a lot.

Pirates' Salary Chart - The Pedro Years (Part 2 - Arb Years)

When we left off the last post, we were at the end of 2013 and the payroll was $54M. This post will look at 2014-2016, the arbitration years of Pedro Alvarez and other key players (Cutch-22, Tabata, Lincoln, Ohlendorf, and others).

2014
Position Player Est. Salary
C Sanchez $440,000
1B Jones $7,000,000
2B D'Arnaud $1,500,000
SS FA $8,000,000
3B Alvarez $4,500,000
LF Marte $440,000
CF McCutchen $6,500,000
RF Tabata $2,000,000

Bench FA C $750,000
Bench Friday $1,000,000
Bench FA OF $2,000,000
Bench FA INF $1,500,000
Bench FA OF/Rookie $500,000

SP FA $10,000,000
SP Ohlendorf $8,000,000
SP Morton $6,000,000
SP Lincoln $4,000,000
SP Locke $440,000

RP Meek $3,500,000
RP Uviedo $1,000,000
RP Moreno $440,000
RP Aguero $1,000,000
RP FA/Rook $500,000
RP Owens $440,000
RP FA/Rook $500,000
Total $71,950,000

Wow...that escalated quickly. The jump from $54M to $72M shows that eventually, in order to keep the gang together, Nutting will have to spend more money. Will the masses understand that the team will be low-cost up until 2014, though?

2015
Position Player Est. Salary
C Sanchez $2,000,000
1B Jones $10,000,000
2B D'Arnaud $3,000,000
SS FA $8,000,000
3B Alvarez $7,500,000
LF Marte $2,000,000
CF McCutchen $10,500,000
RF Tabata $3,500,000

Bench FA C $750,000
Bench Friday $2,000,000
Bench FA OF $2,000,000
Bench FA INF $1,000,000
Bench FA OF/Rookie $500,000

SP FA $10,000,000
SP FA $8,000,000
SP Lincoln $7,000,000
SP Locke $1,500,000
SP FA/Rook $500,000

RP Uviedo $2,000,000
RP Owens $1,000,000
RP Moreno $1,000,000
RP Aguero $2,000,000
RP FA/Rook $500,000
RP FA/Rook $750,000
RP FA/Rook $500,000
Total $87,500,000

If spending $72M didn't curl Nutting's hair, spending $87.5M surely will. Don't look now, but this is a legitimate MLB payroll. Under my assumption that no one would stay past their current obligation, this is Garrett Jones and Cutch-22's last year. You can see that those two, plus Alvarez, are $28M themselves...underscoring the cost of keeping key people. I kind of used a Ryan Howard/Prince Fielder hybrid for an arbitration guess on Pedro, by the way.

2016
Position Player Est. Salary
C Sanchez $3,500,000
1B Alvarez $12,500,000
2B D'Arnaud $5,000,000
SS FA $5,000,000
3B FA $7,000,000
LF Marte $3,500,000
CF FA/Rook $1,000,000
RF Tabata $7,000,000

Bench FA C $750,000
Bench FA INF $1,000,000
Bench FA OF $2,000,000
Bench FA INF $1,000,000
Bench FA OF/Rookie $500,000

SP FA $10,000,000
SP FA $8,000,000
SP FA $7,000,000
SP Locke $3,000,000
SP FA/Rook $500,000

RP Uviedo $3,500,000
RP Owens $2,000,000
RP Moreno $2,000,000
RP FA/Rook $750,000
RP FA/Rook $500,000
RP FA/Rook $750,000
RP FA/Rook $500,000
Total $88,250,000

The payroll stayed relatively flat in Pedro's last year, as he moves over to 1B to take Jones' place. Cutch-22 has, sadly, departed and his $10.5M comes off the books to be re-distributed.

So there's a rough look at what it may take to keep the core of this "dynasty" together. Ultimately, the number is what people want the Pirates to be spending in 2010 and it took until 2014/2015 to get there.

But that's what having a good, productive farm can do for you. If you have a guy who can replicate a season of a veteran, but you can pay him the minimum, you trade the veteran. I always use the lava analogy...when magma comes up to the surface and becomes lava, it pushes aside the old dried up material to force its way through.

I would like to think that somewhere within the bowels of PNC Park, Dan Fox and his team have done something just like this already.

Feel free to add your thoughts in the comments....

Pirates' Salary Chart - The Pedro Years (Part 1)

One of the refrains you hear from the general public is that the Pirates don't spend enough on payroll. And to a large extent, they are correct. Obviously, there is a basic correlation between money and winning if you look at the records of recent playoff teams. However, every once in a while a Tampa Rays 2008 sneaks into the equation.

The Pirates' short and medium-term future is going to be defined by the success of one player -- Pedro Alvarez. The Pirates, rightly so, are going to game his service time by bringing him up in early June 2010. That way, this year is a "bonus" year and we will control his rights thru the end of the 2016 season.

The Pirates must do everything they can to try and win during this period, because with Scott Boras as a client, Alvarez will most likely be gone after that 2016 season.

With all of these pre-arb players, though, where will the Pirates spend money? This first post will look at Pedro's pre-arb years (the 2010 "freebie" season, and 2011-2013). Cot's Baseball Contracts was used as a starting point by looking at the salaries. Arb years are guesstimates based on recent similar players.

I assumed that most players would serve out their contracts, unless there was a key player ready to take their place. I did not assume anyone would resign after their current contract expired.

The payroll is virtually set for 2010, but it should still be shown as a starting point:
2010
Position Player Est. Salary
C Doumit $3,650,000
1B Clement $420,000
2B Iwamura $4,850,000
SS Cedeno $1,125,000
3B Laroche/Alvarez $2,500,000
LF Milledge $470,000
CF McCutchen $420,000
RF Jones $420,000

Bench Jaramillo $420,000
Bench Crosby $1,000,000
Bench Church $1,500,000
Bench Vazquez $2,125,000
Bench Young $420,000

SP Maholm $5,000,000
SP Duke $4,300,000
SP Ohlendorf $440,000
SP Morton $420,000
SP McCutchen $400,000

RP Dotel $3,250,000
RP Hanrahan $440,000
RP Meek $420,000
RP Donnelly $1,350,000
RP Carrasco $950,000
RP Lopez $775,000
RP Hart $420,000
Total $37,485,000


Here's 2011's potential salary committment:
Position Player Est. Salary
C Doumit $5,200,000
1B Jones $440,000
2B D'Arnaud $400,000
SS Cedeno $2,500,000
3B Alvarez $2,050,000
LF Milledge $1,500,000
CF McCutchen $440,000
RF Tabata $400,000

Bench Jaramillo $440,000
Bench Friday $400,000
Bench FA OF $1,500,000
Bench Clement $440,000
Bench Laroche $1,500,000

SP Maholm $6,250,000
SP Duke $6,500,000
SP Ohlendorf $2,000,000
SP Morton $440,000
SP Lincoln $420,000

RP Dotel $4,500,000
RP Hanrahan $1,200,000
RP Meek $440,000
RP Aguero $400,000
RP Uviedo $400,000
RP LHP $500,000
RP Hart $440,000
Total $40,700,000

Alvarez's salary from 2009-2012 is $2+M due to his bonus being spread out over those 4 years, plus he gets slightly higher than the min salary. As you can see, a lot of the slots can be filled with decent in-house options.

The key, though, is getting incrementally better. So if you have the chance to upgrade a position with a good free agent, but it cost (gasp!) money, the Nuttings need to do it. The salary number of $40.7M isn't that much higher than 2010...due to the low costs of key players.

2012
Position Player Est. Salary
C Sanchez $400,000
1B Jones $2,000,000
2B D'Arnaud $420,000
SS FA $4,000,000
3B Alvarez $2,200,000
LF Milledge $3,200,000
CF McCutchen $500,000
RF Tabata $420,000

Bench Jaramillo $1,000,000
Bench Friday $420,000
Bench Marte $400,000
Bench FA $2,000,000
Bench Laroche $3,000,000

SP FA $8,000,000
SP Ohlendorf $4,000,000
SP Morton $2,000,000
SP Lincoln $440,000
SP Locke $400,000

RP Hanrahan $2,500,000
RP Meek $1,000,000
RP Moreno $400,000
RP Aguero $420,000
RP Uviedo $420,000
RP Owens $400,000
RP Hart $800,000
Total $40,740,000

The payroll is virtually unchanged from 2011, due to Doumit coming off the books and Sanchez making the minimum. I did allocate for the Pirates to go get a SP for $8M and find a FA SS, as well, though.

During this exercise, I was very reticent to assume too many promotions from our minors. I made the cut off players that would start 2010 in A+ or higher. I would love to project ZVR or Cunningham or Cain, but they are still hazy question marks right now.

And in the final year of this post, 2013:
2013
Position Player Est. Salary
C Sanchez $420,000
1B Jones $4,500,000
2B D'Arnaud $440,000
SS FA $6,000,000
3B Alvarez $700,000
LF Marte $420,000
CF McCutchen $3,500,000
RF Tabata $440,000

Bench Jaramillo $2,000,000
Bench Friday $440,000
Bench FA OF $1,500,000
Bench FA INF $1,500,000
Bench FA OF $2,000,000

SP FA $8,000,000
SP Ohlendorf $6,000,000
SP Morton $4,000,000
SP Lincoln $2,000,000
SP Locke $420,000

RP Hanrahan $4,500,000
RP Meek $2,000,000
RP Moreno $420,000
RP Aguero $440,000
RP Uviedo $440,000
RP Owens $420,000
RP Hart $1,500,000
Total $54,000,000

OK, the payroll jumped up from just under $41M to $54M, due to our players starting to get more expensive like Cutch-22 hitting arb for the first time, and the natural progressions of some of the pitchers. Interestingly, Alvarez's salary "drops" to $700K, due to his bonus going away from the committment.

$54M may field a competitive team, but it will still not be enough to keep the general public from questioning the committment of the Nuttings. That will depend on how they fill these FA gaps that I have shown.

The next set of posts will show Pedro's arb years, which also coincide with McCutchen/Tabata/Lincoln's arb years, as well.

Where would you spend the money to upgrade?