Seriously, What Happened to Neil Walker's Switch Hitting Ability?

Neil Walker was a hot mess this year as a right-handed batter against lefties.  It's to the point where there is legitimate talk about putting him a platoon situation.  Good news is that he is still fantastic against RHP's, of which there are significantly more pitchers.

But it wasn't always this way.  What it has been is a long, steep decline.  Check out his splits for each of his full seasons (2010 to 2013).

2010
v. RHP -- .298/.353/.465 (818 OPS), 123 wRC+
v. LHP -- .295/.344/.464 (809 OPS), 118 wRC+

As a refresher, wRC+ is weighted Runs Created above average.  100 is the base level, so Walker was 23% better than average against RHP and 18% better than average against LHP.  There is virtually no split at all here.  It's pretty much the perfect example of a switch hitter.

2011
v. RHP -- .277/.340/.434 (773 OPS), 114 wRC+
v. LHP -- .269/.322/.350 (672 OPS), 86 wRC+

OK, starting to go downhill, but it's still manageable.  The disconcerting part is that his isolated power dropped to .081 versus LHP.  If Walker could hold the line here, it would be acceptable, but not preferred.

2012
v. RHP -- .291/.352/.473 (825 OPS), 126 wRC+
v. LHP -- .246/.314/.288 (602 OPS), 69 wRC+

Well, now the wheels are off the wagon completely.  He's not even hitting for an empty average, as his .246 is poor.  Even worse is his isolated power is now at .052, which is Juan Pierre-esque.  And his weighted Runs Created continues to drop like an anvil in a lake.

2013
v. RHP -- .256/.350/.455 (805 OPS), 127 wRC+
v. LHP -- .225/.281/.238 (519 OPS), 48 wRC+

I mean...c'mon now, Neil.  There's no way to defend any part of this horrible line.  A .013 isolated power?  Neil hit 1 double, 0 triples, and 0 home runs this year.  And he's 52% worse than average against lefties.

Just take a second and look at the steep and consistent decline in those numbers from year-to-year.  That's jarring.  It's at the point where someone has to say to him "Stop switch hitting, Neil."
It literally can not be worse if he batted full time as a lefty.

I am a big advocate of giving Neil Walker a moderate extension.  I'm proposing something along the lines of 4 years/$30M.  The contract would buy out the three remaining arbitration years (Walker is a Super 2) and his first free agent year.  That would take Walker through his age-31 season.  By that time, Alen Hanson would hopefully be able to take over at 2B.  My Hanson estimate is that he would be ready in mid-2015, so Hanson could apprentice in the middle infield at either SS or backup both SS and 2B.

In the meantime, for the love of baseball, stop switch hitting Neil.

The Case For Neil Walker's Extension

With Andrew McCutchen's extension finalized last month, the attention has turned to Neil Walker to be the next Pirate extended. Oddly though, there has been some blowback from the online Pirate community about the wisdom of such a move. It has gone so far in some articles as to say that if Neil Walker was not from Pittsburgh there wouldn't be much interest in extending him.

That doesn't make any sense to me, especially once you look at Walker's stats objectively.

In 2011, Walker's triple slash line was .273/.334/.408 (742 OPS) for a 103 OPS+, indicating he was 3% better than league average. His weighted on-base average was .322, which placed him 9th out of 19 2B with at least 500 plate appearances in all of MLB.

Walker's defense was slightly below average with a -2.5 UZR/150. Coupled with his offensive output, this gave Walker a WAR of 3.0 last year (2.0 is considered league average).

Considering that Walker is playing 2012 at age 26, still on the cusp of the presumed prime years for a baseball player, it sure seems like an extension would be great for all sides. Slightly complicating the extension proposition is that Walker will be a Super 2 eligible player next year, meaning he gets 4 cracks at arbitration instead of the usual 3, but it's not impossible.

I'm proposing an extension similar to the one that Ian Kinsler signed back in 2008, but not adjusted much for inflation, due to the fact that Kinsler is a far superior offensive player than Walker at this point. Kinsler's extension was 5 years for $22M with a club option for 2013 for $10M. It breaks down like this:
2008 - $500K
2009 - $3M
2010 - $4M
2011 - $6M
2012 - $7M
2013 - $10M option

Walker's could look something like this:
2012 - $500K (plus a $500K signing bonus)
2013 - $2.5M
2014 - $4M
2015 - $6M
2016 - $8M
2017 - $10M option

That's 5 years for $21.5M, with a $10M option at the end. Hardly on the same level of commitment as McCutchen's 6 year/$51.5M extension, but you lock up another key player and continue to show the fanbase that you are serious about this core group.

Walker is still learning and improving the position as he enters into his prime years. He is already a 3.0 WAR player; if he can improve to a 4.0 WAR player with a modicum of offensive improvement and average defensive posture, that is a very valuable commodity that shouldn't be dismissed so easily.

The critics say that 2B is the easiest position to fill. And they're right. Most 2B are failed SS that don't have the range and/or arm to fill the position, so they slide to the left of the bag. But I'm a firm believer in "a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush". If and when the Pirates have a player show they are ready, both offensively and defensively, to replace Walker then the discussion can happen. Walker has already proved that he can handle 3B defensively. His bat wouldn't play as well there, but it wouldn't be crippling. He is also a good enough athlete to handle some OF duty, as well.

In short, Walker should continue to improve for the next 3 years at least. Even if he stays at the same level, he is a valuable commodity for the salaries proposed above. Perhaps the $8M proposed for his last arbitration year may prove unwise, but that's the benefit of locking him down for some lower-than-expected arb-1 and 2 salaries.

Walker should be extended at a reasonable contract similar to the one I've proposed. After Walker though, I don't see any current Pirates that would warrant an extension, so his may be the last one for a while.

A great draft class (2005) versus a bad one (2004)

Earlier this season, I examined the highly touted 2005 draft class using WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and determined that, yes, the hype was real. This is a very strong class with a combined 134.1 Wins Above Replacement to this point.

The top 5 contributors to this total are Hall of Fame-path-Ryan Zimmerman (26.4), team leader Troy Tulowitzki (17.8), iron gloved Ryan Braun (16.5), Matt Garza (9.9), and Mike Pelfrey (8.0). All of those guys were college players so they had a 2-3 year headstart on the high school outfielders like Jay Bruce (7.8), Justin Upton (7.7), Andrew McCutchen (6.7), and Colby Rasmus (5.8).

Cutch-22, with his 6.7 WAR, currently ranks 10th in this class -- right behind Ricky Romero from the Blue Jays with his 6.8.

By comparison, let's take a look at the draft class one year before this one, the 2004 class. The 2004 class at the time was said to not be deep, plus it was peppered with some high-salary-demand guys like Stephen Drew and Jered Weaver who dropped in the draft.

Nevertheless, the 2004 class has to date only compiled an 85.8 WAR, even with a one year jump on the 2005 class. Furthermore, two players (Justin Verlander with 25.3 and Jered Weaver with 18.8) have compiled nearly 50% of the WAR in this class. To show the weakness of the class, take a look at Neil Walker who had a great season with the stick and a not-so-great one with the glove. His 1.9 WAR this year and his -0.3 WAR in 2009 gives him 1.6 WAR for his career. That puts Walker in 11th place. Keep in mind that Cutch-22 is in 10th with his 6.7 WAR -- in this class he would be 4th!

Something to keep in mind, regarding the relative strengths of a draft class from year to year, as we move into the 2011 draft which is said to have one of the strongest 1st rounds in years.