Andrew McCutchen is having a down year

Last year, I wrote about how some Pirate fans felt that 2010 was a down year for Andrew McCutchen. I attempted to refute those claims on the basis that it was his perceived defensive shortcomings that held his season's perception down.

So it is somewhat surprising that I am here to type that 2011 was a down year for Cutch-22. On the surface this seems counterintuitive as McCutchen is in the midst of a 5.3 WAR season after his first two years being 3.5 and 3.7 respectively.

The first half of the year looked like McCutchen was on the verge of becoming a legitimate superstar in the league as he went .291/.390/.505 (894 OPS) with 14 HR and 15 SB's in the 88 games prior to the All-Star break. But McCutchen came out cold from the ASB and has stayed cold in the 2nd half, with a .226/.335/.382 (717 OPS) line and 6 HR and 5 SB's in 52 games.

Contrary to last year, when McCutchen and the rest of the outfielders were subjected to the bizarre defensive alignments, Cutch-22 has a very favorable Ultimate Zone Rating for his fielding (4.8/150 versus his -12.9/150 in 2010). So last year's 3.7 WAR was held down by his poor defensive rating while his 5.3 WAR may be buoyed by his positive defensive rating. I'm becoming evermore skeptical of defensive ratings, so when I see a player greatly augmented by one, it sticks out.

My reasoning is that McCutchen's Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) has held steady from his first two years. His three wOBA's are (in order) .368, .363, and .364. Additionally, his OPS's are steady at 836, 814, and 830. So McCutchen's offensive component of his WAR rating has held steady, but his defensive rating (the part that I'm skeptical of true value) has fluctuated which has caused his high WAR total of 5.3 in 2011.

Something else to be concerned about is that his overall contact percentages have dropped this year too. As per his Fangraphs page, his contact rate within the strike zone has dropped from 90.6% to 87.9% this year. His overall contact rate for all pitches has also dropped from 84.6% to 81.0% and his swinging strike rate has increased from 5.8% to 7.6% this year.

Let me clarify something -- I am still a huge, huge McCutchen fan. I think he has another gear in him and he is capable of having a 25 HR/40 SB season, which would be monsterous. But this season is not his best one. The good news is that Cutch-22 will not turn 25 until October, which means his peak seasons of age 27-29 are still ahead of him and in line for us as Pirates fans.

Is it worth it to have a Face of the Franchise their whole career?

Perhaps as a fan of a small-revenue club, this whole post should be taken with an entire shaker of salt. In my beaten down mentality as a Pirates fan, I’m wondering if it is worth it to have a Face of the Franchise player spend his whole career with one team. At some point, it seems with the escalated salaries today that a player is being vastly overpaid for his services rendered.

Is it better to squeeze all the value out of player in his three minimum wage years plus his three arbitration years and then let some other team get saddled with an overpaid free agent contract? Of course the player I have in mind is Andrew McCutchen.

It’s no secret that I’m a huge fan of the first true five-tool talent that the Pirates have had since Barry Lamar Bonds roamed the outfield. His production, at an assumed salary of around $435,000 in 2011, is a steal in baseball salary terms. In fact, Fangraphs recently had an article discussing the top players in the majors in terms of surplus value over the past 2 years. Surplus value is the difference in a player’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and the dollar equivalent ($4.25M/WAR average over the past 2 years) minus their actual contract salary. For instance, if a player was worth 8 WAR combined over the past 2 years, his presumed WAR worth would be $34M. If that same player earned $500,000 each year ($1M total), his surplus value would be $34M - $1M = $33M.

Fangraphs anointed McCutchen as their pick, along with Jason Heyward, as the newest potential Surplus Value Stars. McCutchen produced 6.7 WAR over his first 1+ seasons (2009 was not a full season, as he was called up in June).
Let’s assume that Cutch-22 signs a contract extension similar to Grady Sizemore’s contract that he signed back in March 2006 when Sizemore had the same 1+ seasons under his belt as McCutchen. Here are Sizemore’s salaries and WAR’s for each season under that deal:

2004 (partial year, “free” year to Indians in terms of arbitration time) = 1.1 WAR, $3.3M value, $300K salary
2005 = 5.4 WAR, $18.4M value, $320K salary
2006 = 7.3 WAR, $27.1M value, $500K salary
2007 = 5.7 WAR, $23.7M value, $900K salary
2008 = 7.1 WAR, $31.9M value, $3.2M salary
2009 = 1.9 WAR, $8.6M value, $4.6M salary
2010 = -0.3 WAR, -$1.2M value, $5.6M salary

2005 to 2007 represent Sizemore’s min wage years, while 2008 to 2010 would be his arbitration years if he didn’t sign the contract he did. His contract bought out his first FA year (2011) for $7.5M, with a team option for $8.5M in 2012. At the time of signing this deal and even the first few years, it seemed like an absolute steal of a deal. But starting in 2009, Sizemore encountered a series of injuries, culminating with dreaded microfracture surgery on his knee last year.

The Indians have received 28.2 WAR from Sizemore during his first 6+ years with the club, the standard years a player gets before free agency. That WAR translates to a $111.8M value on the open market, yet the Indians only paid Sizemore $15.4M over this time, giving the Indians a Surplus Value of $96.4M. Even if Sizemore did not play a single inning for the Indians in 2011 and they paid him $7.5M for nothing this year, he would still be a ridiculous steal of a contract for them.

But what if Sizemore did not have that deal with the Indians and left them after 2010and then developed an injury going into 2011? That new team would be saddled with a player that could be paid nearly $20M/year, based on his career to that point and similar to a Carl Crawford-type of deal, and not playing up to his fullest potential. Then there would be no Surplus Value, as a $20M player needs to produce 4 to 4.5 WAR to justify that salary every year.

Going back to McCutchen, the Sizemore deal is eminently affordable for any team, even one with limited resources like the Pirates. Normally, I advocate signing hitters to a maximum of 5 year deals, but mentioned that 6 years is possible for a franchise cornerstone. A 6 year deal would buy out the first year of Cutch-22’s free agent years. At that point, I’m wondering if it would be better for the Pirates to release him into the wild and let some other team deal with the possibility of a 30 year old Andrew McCutchen developing knee problems (Jason Bay, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Beltran) or a declining skill set.

In my heart of hearts, I would hate to see McCutchen ever play in any other uniform, but in these wintery economic times that the Pirates have put themselves in, McCutchen may price himself out of our market and his true value to the club. You never want to pay someone in the present for past glories.

A great draft class (2005) versus a bad one (2004)

Earlier this season, I examined the highly touted 2005 draft class using WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and determined that, yes, the hype was real. This is a very strong class with a combined 134.1 Wins Above Replacement to this point.

The top 5 contributors to this total are Hall of Fame-path-Ryan Zimmerman (26.4), team leader Troy Tulowitzki (17.8), iron gloved Ryan Braun (16.5), Matt Garza (9.9), and Mike Pelfrey (8.0). All of those guys were college players so they had a 2-3 year headstart on the high school outfielders like Jay Bruce (7.8), Justin Upton (7.7), Andrew McCutchen (6.7), and Colby Rasmus (5.8).

Cutch-22, with his 6.7 WAR, currently ranks 10th in this class -- right behind Ricky Romero from the Blue Jays with his 6.8.

By comparison, let's take a look at the draft class one year before this one, the 2004 class. The 2004 class at the time was said to not be deep, plus it was peppered with some high-salary-demand guys like Stephen Drew and Jered Weaver who dropped in the draft.

Nevertheless, the 2004 class has to date only compiled an 85.8 WAR, even with a one year jump on the 2005 class. Furthermore, two players (Justin Verlander with 25.3 and Jered Weaver with 18.8) have compiled nearly 50% of the WAR in this class. To show the weakness of the class, take a look at Neil Walker who had a great season with the stick and a not-so-great one with the glove. His 1.9 WAR this year and his -0.3 WAR in 2009 gives him 1.6 WAR for his career. That puts Walker in 11th place. Keep in mind that Cutch-22 is in 10th with his 6.7 WAR -- in this class he would be 4th!

Something to keep in mind, regarding the relative strengths of a draft class from year to year, as we move into the 2011 draft which is said to have one of the strongest 1st rounds in years.

Looking back on Cutch-22's "down" season

In 2009, Andrew McCutchen (otherwise referred to by a loyal following of one person as "Cutch-22") debuted for the Pirates and put forth a triple slash line of .286/.365/.471 (batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage) for an OPS of 836. Within that line were 26 doubles, 9 triples, 12 home runs, 54 runs batted in and 22 steals. That was accomplished in 108 games.

Needless to say, some people had their expectation meters set to "blast off" for McCutchen in 2010. Even as one of his biggest supporters, I was expecting more modest gains as I mentioned in the 2010 Predictions Post. I was merely thinking that he would consolidate his gains in 2010 and increase his numbers proportionally over a full season.

There is a somewhat significantly-sized undercurrent out there that 2010 was a disappointing season from Andrew McCutchen. Here is his final line over 154 games:

.286/.365/.449 (814 OPS)

Look familiar? It should, as it's the same batting average and on-base percentage as 2009, with only a slightly lower slugging percentage. In fact if you extrapolate his 2009 numbers to 154 games, here's what they would be...

26 2B's turns into 37 doubles (he had 35 in 2010)

9 3B's turns into 13 triples (he had 5 in 2010)

12 HR's turns into 17 homers (he had 16 in 2010)

22 SB's turns into 31 steals (he had 33 in 2010)

So as you can pretty easily see, the drop in slugging percentage in due in large part to his lesser amount of triples in 2010 versus 2009. I always have considered triples to be as much a measure of luck as skill, as most are the result of a misplayed ball, a bad route, or a weird bounce.

Some of the perception that Cutch-22 had a down year may be due to the fact that he suffered through two rough months in July and August. In July, he hit .254/.303/.358 (661 OPS) and in August he hit .226/.317/.415 (732 OPS). In truth, he needed a red hot September of .324/.411/.519 (930 OPS) to achieve the numbers that he did.

So what happened in the summer time? Was it due to a bad lunch meeting that he had?

In July, McCutchen sprained the AC joint of his shoulder blade while diving for a catch. Naturally, he said that he was fine after taking a few games off, but it was evident that he was playing hurt. To add injury to more injury, on August 3rd as he was just getting back on track, Mike Leake tattooed the back of his neck with a wild pitch. Those two occurences took a toll on Cutch-22 that he did not recover from until his scorching September.

If McCutchen were not hurt, which granted is a big qualifier for any player in any year, it is well within reason that he would have had a 20 HR/40 SB season. Do you know how many players in MLB had that kind of year in 2010?

Zero.

BJ Upton (18 HR/42 SB) and Carl Crawford (19 HR/47 SB) came the closest. And keep in mind that Carl Crawford is who McCutchen is starting to draw the closest comparisons to around the league. The last Pirate to have a 20 HR/40 SB season was one Barry Lamar Bonds, so that should put a finer point on how difficult it truly is to do.

Here's something else to consider. Around the league in 2010, the average numbers for a leadoff hitter (where he will probably be in 2011 most of the time) were .264/.329/.382 (711 OPS). McCutchen was well above the norm in all of these categories. For all CF's, the average numbers were .261/.326/.405 (731 OPS). Again, Cutch-22 was well above the average for all of these categories.

I feel fairly comfortable that we have now established Cutch-22's baseline season in 2010. I only expect better things in 2011, especially since more pieces have been added around him in the lineup. He doesn't have to feel pressured to win every game on his own. Walker, Tabata, and Alvarez all did that themselves this year, too.

When the high school outfielder draft class of 2005 was working their way through the minors, chats on Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus would always ask the moderator to rank the long-term futures of Justin Upton, Cameron Maybin, Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus, and Andrew McCutchen. Pretty much every time, the list would look like: Upton, Bruce, Maybin, McCutchen, Rasmus (sometimes Rasmus and McCutchen would flip flop positions). I always contended that McCutchen would be the steady and consistent player, while the others (due to their higher K rates) would have higher peaks but lower lows, too. At this point, especially after Upton's down year, I would not feel uncomfortable ranking them Upton, McCutchen, Rasmus, Bruce, and Maybin maybe being a bust.

The one facet of his game that I would like McCutchen to improve in is his defense. He has been poorly rated by Ultimate Zone Rating statistically and his rainbows throws and shaky routes don't pass my eye test. I think a good offseason with a coach can remedy most of those problems.

Andrew McCutchen is without a doubt the top reason for me to look forward to April 2011 and the start of a new Pirates season. I am a complete masochist.

Reviewing my 2010 pre-season Pirate predictions

In an effort to provide an internal audit of my posts, I thought I would go back and re-visit my 2010 Pre-Season Pirates Predictions post.
Listed below is the original prediction and comment in italics, with my new thoughts in bold.

1. The Pirates will win 76 games -- OK, I've covered this one in my WAR-based analysis of the team. Give me a +/- of 2 wins on this one. I think the makings of a winning team will start to materialize this season.
When I said +/- 2 wins, I really meant to say +/- 20 wins. Yeah. That's it. The "what the heck went wrong" with the 2010 Pirates will be coming shortly as its own post.

2. Robbie Grossman's LH-hitting struggles will continue and he will give up switch hitting -- As a RH hitter his OPS was 897 and his K-rate was 24%. As a LH hitter his OPS was 679 and his K-rate was 40%. I think if the trend continues up to mid-season, he will abandon switch-hitting.
This is a good news/bad news situation. The good news is that Grossman's K rate as a LH hitter dropped to 25%. The bad news is that his OPS stayed at 668. The even worse news is that as a RH hitter his OPS dropped to 746 this year and his isolated power was bad from both sides (.114 and .095, respectively). So Grossman still has a sizeable platoon split, but that the switch-hitting experiment will continue.

3. Quincy Latimore will continue to show that he is not a prospect -- Admittedly, I seem to have an ax to grind with Latimore. I think it's just that people want so badly for him to be a prospect when in reality he is not even close. His K/BB rate last year was 25%/5% with a .251 BA, 3 steals, and poor defense as a LF. The BB rate will not play as he continues to move up. He is already low on the defensive spectrum. He doesn't make great contact and he's not fast on the bases. Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?
Latimore put together a .266/.323/.444 line in 2010 for a 767 OPS. This constitutes a career high in OPS for Frederick Quincy Latimore. Most of this was built off of an insane August that had a 942 OPS, which was far and away the outlier to his monthly numbers. But he had one last year too in July and numbers count no matter when you put them up.
Latimore had 30 BB and 136 K's in 518 AB's for a 6% BB rate and a 27% K rate. His 2011 in AA will be very telling.

4. Pedro Alvarez will hit .260 with 20 HR's but a 30% K rate in the majors -- Pedro will show us enough to warrant setting the Excitement Meter to 10 in 2011. Cutch-22 spoiled us last year with an electric debut. I think Pedro will be more of a rookie with his struggles, but ready to explode in 2011.
Pedro had a very herky-jerky debut. He was ice cold in June (411 OPS), took off in July (especially after the All Star Break, had a 855 OPS), came back down in August (735 OPS), and then terrorized pitchers with a 932 OPS in September and giving us all a glimpse of what could be in store in 2011.
Pedro hit .256/.326/.461 (787 OPS) with 16 HR's and a 34.3% K rate. Not bad on the estimates all the way around. His struggles against lefties were a little disconcerting at times.

5. Andrew McCutchen will more or less consolidate his gains in 2010 -- I'm not saying he'll have a Sophomore Slump, but rather he will put a similar line to his .286/.365/.471 2009 season. His counting stats will increase proportionally, not exponentially as some are hoping/predicting.
Cutch-22 will get his own follow-up post about his 2010 season, but here was his final line for 2010:
.286/.365/.449
Seriously. His BA and OBP were exactly the same as 2009. That about as close to "he will put up a similar line" as you can get. He hit 16 HR's and stole 33 bases which were a mild disappointment for how he started the season, but fairly close to proportions from 2009 (His rough proportional totals would have been 17 HR's and 31 SB's). I think we have established Cutch-22's baseline.

6. Tony Sanchez will put up a season in 2010 that will make Ryan Doumit expendable -- I think Sanchez ends 2010 in Altoona and has a season significant enough to warrant Huntington trading Doumit in the 2010 offseason. Jaramillo will hold the fort in 2011 until Sanchez is ready to come up.
This one was looking like another good prediction until Brad Holt parked a fastball into Sanchez's cake-cruncher in June. He was out the rest of the season. His offense was just as good as last year up to that point, but his defense suffered from a lingering shoulder injury, causing Sanchez to only throw out 15% of baserunners. He will need all of 2011 in the minors, hopefully split between AA and AAA.

7. Zach Von Rosenburg will fail to live up to the lofty expectations in 2010 -- It actually semi-pained me to type that, but I think his present stuff (high 80's FB, shaky secondary stuff) will get him lit up in full-season ball in 2010. He was always more of a projection than a present-day stud, so I think folks will see sub-par numbers and write him off. Similar to Quinton Miller last year.
ZVR spent the whole season in State College, which was a mild disappointment in and of itself. He also started the season off slowly with some less than stellar numbers until his last 10 starts. ZVR put up a 2.11 ERA in 47 IP, giving up 42 hits, allowing 10 BB, and striking out 35. The fastball is still in the high 80's though, and his stuff was not swing and miss this year. His season was better than Quinton Miller's 2009, but there is still something that needs to shine with ZVR.

8. Diego Moreno and Brock Holt are going to have breakout seasons in 2010 -- Holt seems like a slightly lesser version of Chase D'arnaud to me and you saw how his 2009 season went. I think Moreno is going to be a fast-mover this year and put himself in the prime discussion for a bullpen spot in 2011.
This was a spot-on prediction, too, but with some qualifiers. Moreno humiliated High-A hitters and was moved up to Altoona where he had success as well. However, he was disciplined for behavioral problems and demoted for a short time back to High-A. He wound up back with Altoona by the end, though. He is now said to be the best reliever in minor league baseball by Baseball America.
Holt got off to a scorching .351/.410/.438 (848 OPS) in Bradenton until he ripped his ACL in June. He should be back and fine in 2011 and hopefully will see Altoona sooner rather than later.

9. John Russell and Neil Huntington both get extensions -- I think NH deserves 3 more years to see his work through. It usually takes 3-4 years to see a draft class come up to the surface so he needs AT LEAST 2011 to see his 2008 class, right? Plus, I have agreed with the concepts of his trades, if not all the pieces received. As for Russell, I'm not thrilled about this part of the prediction, but I think they will give him 2 years (2011/2012) to actually have some impact players to work with and make a go of it. 2 more years of wanting to use a defribrulator on him during his press conferences.
I got this one right too, but again there were qualifiers. The Pirates actually secretly extended both Russell and Huntington in October of 2009 for the 2011 season and never told the media or the public. Then, Russell went and dropped a 105 loss season on Pittsburgh and was fired this week.
Huntington will (theoretically) go into 2011 GM'ing for his job and a future longer extension.

10. Nutting brings in a minor partner to the ownership group -- Unless his will is made of complete iron, I think Nutting hears the natives beating the drums. He will try to appease them by finding a partner willing to infuse a small percentage of cash into the enterprise. It will be a local businessman, not Lemieux/Burkle, that has been out of the public's radar screen.
This was the boldest of my 10 predictions and did not happen. However, I have recently said that this offseason is an Inflection Point for the future of this franchise and Nutting's financial committment is at the forefront.

All in all, not too bad on the predictions, aside from the most important one about the win total!

My lunch with Andrew McCutchen

As you all know from following this blog, I'm super cool. So it's no big deal for me to call up my main man Andrew McCutchen, star CF for the Pittsburgh Pirates and have a nice lunch in the Strip District.....

All right...I know. I'm a big techno-nerd. I'm not fooling anyone.

I took a vacation day today (much needed, in my opinion) and DB~ and I went down to the Strip District to do some shopping of various ethnic food nationalities. But first we stopped for breakfast/lunch at Pamela's. It was a great meal, as it is usually is at Pamela's. DB~ had strawberry crepes and I had a pork BBQ sandwich with onion rings and cole slaw.

Now...I always prefer to sit with my back to the wall. Part of it is so that I can sit and people watch, but a lot of it is my irrational fear of wanting to see if someone is going to come charging at me with a knife or something. Just go with it.

So I have my pork BBQ sandwich going head-long into the ol' cake cruncher and in walks an African-American gentleman with his dreadlocks pulled back in a bunch behind his head.

It's Andrew Stefan McCutchen. Cutch-22. The Face of the Franchise. The guy who was the impetus for me joining OnlyBucs (my version of Facebook, since I'm not on the real one) and a guy I have written about numerous times on this blog (check the sidebar for "Andrew McCutchen" and "Cutch-22" tags).

I sat there with my pork BBQ raised up in my hand...totally dumbfounded. DB~ half-turned to check he and his girlfriend out. I instantly starting having all these thoughts flash through my head...

"Should I talk to him?" "Should I give him a head nod on the way out?" "Should I give him the fist of solidarity?" "Do I tell him about OnlyBucs?" "Am I going to get a protection from abuse order placed against me?"

Andrew was with a beautiful girl. I was with a beautiful girl. Maybe the four of us could go out for dinner sometime. I could cook dinner for the 4 of us, Andrew could read some of his original poetry. It would be just lovely....

"Don't embarass yourself." Ahhhh...nothing like DB~ to snap me back into reality.

He still didn't have his food yet and we were done, so DB~ agreed to go pay the check and I would go over and "just say hi". I decided to wing it on what I was going to say.

Now...I've met a lot of local celebrities and a few national celebrities. I'm not starstruck. Except now. This is my favorite Pirate. The guy who I hope against hope is a Pirate his whole career.

I cautiously approached him and said, "Hi there..." He looked up surprised. "A lot of people are pulling for you guys. You'll turn it around soon. Good luck." And then I pretty much did a 180 and walk-sprinted out of the restaurant.

What a dork I was. I got the impression he sort of wanted to be left alone, so I pulled the ripcord early, like Goose in Top Gun.

BTW, the picture above is one that I surrepetitiously took through the table of 4 sitting next to us. Cutch-22 is in the background with his head down. He's the black guy.

So how much would a good team cost?

I'm a big believer in getting value out of something. I cringe when people call me thrifty...I prefer to think of it as being smart with my money. Me saving money on things throughout the week enables me to spend money on the weekend or fun vacations down the road (and even then I'm on the lookout for deals).

So what's this have to do with baseball? I'm getting to that.
The Pirates have the lowest payroll in MLB this year at around $39M. Most of that is because they are rebuilding with youth and those players don't cost a lot, especially their first 3 years.

But even with Cutch-22, Walker, Tabata, Lincoln, Meek, and soon Pedro up and making the minimum wage essentially, there are huge holes in this lineup. And not all those holes can be filled internally. It's time to look outside for either higher quality trade acquisitions or through free agency.

It got me to thinking....if I were a fan of team that actually um...spent money...how much money would you need in the payroll for a good team?

The numbers below are all first-cut numbers. I don't have any A-Rod's on this team for $25M. No matter how good he is, nobody is worth that over an extended period. There are also certain positions that I don't think you should spend a lot of money on (like catcher, for instance, due to wear and tear).

Also keep in mind that a good farm system should supply the major league team with 1 starter and 1 bench/bullpen guy each year. So you'll see in this example some guys in the 0-3 camp making minimum, and the guys who have progressed out of that to the arb camp (typically $2M - $6M as you go through arb). For the arb guys, I assumed an average salary of $4M, taking into account the 3 years of arb.

Catcher - $4M
1B - $12M
2B - $425K (0 to 3 guy)
SS - $5M
3B - $10M
LF - $10M
CF - $4M (Arb guy)
RF - $6M

Bench C - $600K
Bench IF - $2M
Bench IF - $425K (0 to 3 guy)
Bench OF - $1M
Bench OF - $2M

SP1 - $12M
SP2 - $8M
SP3 - $4M (Arb guy)
SP4 - $4M (Arb guy)
SP5 - $425K (0 to 3 guy)

CL - $5M
SET - $2M
SET - $2M
RP - $425K (0 to 3 guy)
RP - $700K
LP - $2M
LP - $425K (0 to 3 guy)

Total - $98M'ish

Last year in 2009, $98M would have put you in 12th place, right between the White Sox and the Braves. That's $5M ahead of the Cards, so you can see that all of those teams are real honest-to-goodness competitive teams.

You can see how far the Pirates still have to go. Kind of depressing, even on the precipice of Pedro coming up to the big team.

Timing the prospect waves

The Rule 4 MLB draft is less than 2 weeks away and it seems as if things are coming into focus a little more clearly.

Unless the Pirates are playing things real close to the vest, it seems as if the 3 choices on their plate (assuming Harper goes to the Nats, as presumed) are:

Drew Pomeranz LHP - Ole Miss

Manny Machado SS - HS in Florida

Jameson Taillon RHP - HS, Woodlands, TEX

I've contended that the Pirates front office, specifically Neal Huntington and Greg Smith, want no parts of drafting a HS pitcher early in the first round and committing upwards of $6-8M. They are very comfortable cherry-picking guys in the later rounds who were "tough signs" out of high school and getting them for $1-2M. Plus, NH has made some comments on radio shows about wondering how a HS kid can square up on Taillon's high-90's fastball.

So in my mind, the Pirates are deciding between Pomeranz and Machado.

Pomeranz sits in the 90-93 mph range with his fastball, has a high 70's curveball said to be his out pitch, and an average changeup at this point. He has a fantastic K rate, but a so-so BB rate. To me, he could be a #2 pitcher.

Machado got an unfair "Alex Rodriguez" comp about a month ago....a lazy comp because they are both of Latin descent and from Florida. He is said to have the range and actions to stay at SS with moderate power and average speed.

In my mind, though, I would take Pomeranz because you can line him up with our current talent wave getting ready to crest in Pittsburgh. I believe, as do most rational Pirate fans, that our future for the next 6 years will start and end with the success of Pedro Alvarez. Thanks to gaming his clock in 2010, we will have his services from 2011 to 2016 before Emperor Boras whisks him off to a big market city upon free agency.

If Pomeranz is selected, he can start 2011 in A+ and get to AA by the end of the year. A tune-up and arb gaming session in 2012 in AAA and...voila! June 2012 he can be on the mound. At that time, Pedro will be rounding into shape in his 2nd full year. Cutch-22 will be in his last pre-arb year. Tabata will be patrolling the OF, Lincoln will be in the rotation along with Bryan Morris, and Walker will be super-subbing all over the place. It's not hard to imagine that with a bonus prospect making the jump and/or a well-timed free agent signing that the Pirates could be on the edge of the wild card.

Meanwhile, if you draft Machado in 2010, here's his timetable:

2011 - Low A

2012 - High A

2013 - Double A

2014 - Triple A

2015 - Majors

By that time, you are breaking a rookie SS into a lineup with Cutch-22 in his last arb year (possibly his last in PGH) and Alvarez one year behind him. You are not taking advantage to the fullest of Cutch-22 and Alvarez's time together due to the extra development time needed.

Machado may have the higher upside, but Pomeranz is forecasted to be decent in his own right. Plus, he will get here quicker.

All that said - it seems as if the Pirates are leaning towards Machado.

2005 1st round draft - one for the ages?

Going into the 2005 draft, it was said to be a deep draft. Even at the time, people were touting the impact talent throughout. It was heavy in HS hitters, especially CF's, and college 3B. It's fair, 5 years later, to look back and evaluate things a bit. At the end in bold, I've included their accumulated WAR to date in the majors. The age in parentheses in their 2010 season age.

1-1 J. Upton ARI (22) - Said to be a few levels above his brother, BJ (drafted 1-2 in 2002 by TB), Justin got off to a slow start in Low A in 2006 (756 OPS). But pretty much after that year, he has been in beast mode since. He's 22 and he's a power hitting RF that just signed a long-term deal with ARI. 5.4 WAR

1-2 A. Gordon KC (26) - Next to Upton, he was the prize of the draft. A cornerstone 3B that would stay at the position. He has been beset by injuries and is back in the minors at age 26, after a lackluster career in the majors, and switched to LF. 4.5 WAR

1-3 J. Clement SEA (26) - Hey, I know that name! SEA thought they had a power hitting C for the next decade. They got a guy who may be a AAAA hitter with knees that make him a 1B/DH. Which is a problem considering the Pirates are in the NL. -0.3 WAR

1-4 R. Zimmerman WAS (25) - I consistently underrate Zimmerman and I should stop that one of these days. He plays near Gold-Glove defense and is good for high 20's/low 30's in HR's. He is owning the WAR from this class so far, especially since he got at least 1 year jump on everyone else to the majors. 20.2 WAR

1-5 R. Braun MIL (26) - It was soon realized that Braun had an iron glove and he was switched in the minors to LF. No matter, his bat plays at any position and he's good on the bases as well. Personality wise he needs a punch in the face. 13.8 WAR

1-6 R. Romero TOR (25) - For a while this was looking like a huge fail on TOR's part, especially with Tulowitzki taken right after them and TOR with a gaping hole at SS at the time. But in 2009, Romero finally established himself in the rotation and he should be good from here out. 3.9 WAR

1-7 T. Tulowitzki COL (25) - Natural leader at the most key position of SS. Good with the stick, great with the glove. Great choice. 11.6 WAR

1-8 W. Townsend TB (27) - Wade did not sign the year before with BAL. The rumor is that the TB front office was dead split on either Townsend or Andrew McCutchen. Thanks, TB...we're even from the Upton v. Bullington fiasco in 2002. Had arm troubles, thanks to his alma mater -- the arm shredding university of Rice. Never made the majors and out of baseball. 0 WAR.

1-9 M. Pelfrey NYM (26) - Pelfrey scuffled a little bit, but he is establishing himself as a solid mid-rotation option in the tough market of NY. 5.8 WAR

1-10 C. Maybin DET (23) - Little run of HS CF's here...Maybin was supposed to be pure power, with a wee problem of K's, but that was glossed over by everyone (except me). He was traded to FLA for Cabrera and rushed to the majors. It's hurt his development, IMO. 1.1 WAR

1-11 A. McCutchen PIT (23) - Sweet science...did Littlefield actually do something right? Cutch-22 has exceeded even my expectations to date. He could very well put down a 20 HR/40 SB season this year at 23. That's what analysts squinted and predicted his peak would be at age 28. I hope he stays a Pirate his whole career -- my first true favorite Pirate since the early 90's. 4.1 WAR

1-12 J. Bruce CIN (23) - Supposed to be a huge slugger and would always move to RF. To date, he's had some contact problems in the majors with a low average and high K's. He should be fine long-term. 3.1 WAR

1-13 B. Snyder BAL (23) - Ahhh...lucky 13. You had to try to not make a good pick in this draft, but it was kind of acknowledged at the time that BAL did not. High school Catchers are the toughest picks. The large majority do not stay there and if they have to move, either the bat isn't good or the mobility is lacking. Snyder moved from C to 3B to 1B. He's doing OK, but has still not tasted the majors. 0 WAR

1-14 T. Crowe CLE (26) - CLE went with a college CF and it hasn't worked out. There was a weird experiment mid-stream to make Crowe a 2B, but that was short-lived. He will be a bust, as he only tasted the majors last year. 0.1 WAR

1-15 L. Broadway CWS (26) - College "pitchability" pitcher (read: Fastball sucks). He's a middle reliever now with the Mets. 0.6 WAR

1-16 C. Volstad FLA (23) - I always love the tall pitchers that don't have blazing fastballs. It's just such a weird juxtaposition. Volstad will be a solid mid to back end starter for the foreseeable future. 2.0 WAR

1-17 C. Henry NYY (24) - Busted out and left baseball. Went to Kansas U. to play basketball with his stud brother. Absolute miss. 0 WAR.

1-18 C. Carillo SD (26) - He's been operated on already and is in AAA this year, but there's not much to get excited about. -0.7 WAR

1-19 J. Mayberry TEX (26) - College OF who doesn't hit well enough to be a ML-starter. May be a reserve outfielder, now with PHI. -0.3 WAR

1-20 M. Pawelek CHI (23) - Had conditioning and attitude issues. If he's not out of baseball by now, he will be soon. 0 WAR

1-21 C. Pennington OAK (26) - Scrappy college middle infielder. Of COURSE he was going to get drafted by Billy Beane and Oakland. He is an acceptable option until he hits arb and starts to become expensive. 1.0 WAR

1-22 A. Thompson FLA (23) - Still struggling to get out of AA, now with the Nats. 0 WAR

1-23 J. Ellsbury BOS (26) - Great value for BOS near the end of the first round. Scrappy college CF with movie star looks. A touch overrated as a player in the majors. 8.2 WAR

1-24 B. Bogusevic HOU (26) - Was awful as a pitcher, but he "Ankieled" himself into a good hitter with power. He is in AAA waiting to get recognized by the animatronic GM known as Ed Wade. 0 WAR

1-25 M. Garza MIN (26) - Geez oh man...I don't know what to say here. Total steal by the Twins. And then an even bigger steal by TB to get him in a trade for the terrible Delmon Young. What a beast master. 9.3 WAR

1-26 C. Hansen BOS (26) - Another familiar name to Pirates fans. NH had his 2005 draft guide out in full effect, I guess. Supposed to be a quick-ascent closer type, but he had injury problems and never developed right. Career in jeopardy with neck issues. -0.4 WAR

1-27 J. Devine ATL (26) - Another guy who was supposed to help a bullpen soon. Injuries...ineffective...yada yada. 1.2 WAR

1-28 C. Rasmus STL (23) - Someone will have to tell me how he slid this far. Small HS? Great speed-power combo, but I don't like his K rate long term. 3.6 WAR

1-29 J. Marceaux FLA (26) - FLA lost a lot of Type A free agents and had a ton of 1st round picks as a result. This one won't work out. 0 WAR

1-30 T. Greene STL (26) - He's made the majors, but is nothing great now or in the future. -0.2 WAR

So there you are...in terms of getting people to the majors, this was a successful draft (23 out of 30, with maybe 1-2 more soon). The total WAR to date for this 1st round is 97.6 WAR. Cutch-22, even with being 3 years younger than most of those ahead of him in WAR, is still the 9th highest in WAR totals to date. I expect him to improve on that total.

This was a fantastic draft, with some real cornerstones. It has lived up to the hype so far.

Bold and semi-bold predictions for the 2010 Pirates and the minors

One of the reasons I started this blog is so that I can go back periodically and re-read my stuff to see what level of idiocy I may/may not have been espousing. No one seems to back-check their opinions on the Interwebs, but I intend to go back and grade these predictions:

1. The Pirates will win 76 games -- OK, I've covered this one in my WAR-based analysis of the team. Give me a +/- of 2 wins on this one. I think the makings of a winning team will start to materialize this season.

2. Robbie Grossman's LH-hitting struggles will continue and he will give up switch hitting -- As a RH hitter his OPS was 897 and his K-rate was 24%. As a LH hitter his OPS was 679 and his K-rate was 40%. I think if the trend continues up to mid-season, he will abandon switch-hitting.

3. Quincy Latimore will continue to show that he is not a prospect -- Admittedly, I seem to have an ax to grind with Latimore. I think it's just that people want so badly for him to be a prospect when in reality he is not even close. His K/BB rate last year was 25%/5% with a .251 BA, 3 steals, and poor defense as a LF. The BB rate will not play as he continues to move up. He is already low on the defensive spectrum. He doesn't make great contact and he's not fast on the bases. Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?

4. Pedro Alvarez will hit .260 with 20 HR's but a 30% K rate in the majors -- Pedro will show us enough to warrant setting the Excitement Meter to 10 in 2011. Cutch-22 spoiled us last year with an electric debut. I think Pedro will be more of a rookie with his struggles, but ready to explode in 2011. Speaking of Cutch-22....

5. Andrew McCutchen will more or less consolidate his gains in 2010 -- I'm not saying he'll have a Sophomore Slump, but rather he will put a similar line to his .286/.365/.471 2009 season. His counting stats will increase proportionally, not exponentially as some are hoping/predicting.

6. Tony Sanchez will put up a season in 2010 that will make Ryan Doumit expendable -- I think Sanchez ends 2010 in Altoona and has a season significant enough to warrant Huntington trading Doumit in the 2010 offseason. Jaramillo will hold the fort in 2011 until Sanchez is ready to come up.

7. Zach Von Rosenburg will fail to live up to the lofty expectations in 2010 -- It actually semi-pained me to type that, but I think his present stuff (high 80's FB, shaky secondary stuff) will get him lit up in full-season ball in 2010. He was always more of a projection than a present-day stud, so I think folks will see sub-par numbers and write him off. Similar to Quinton Miller last year.

8. Diego Moreno and Brock Holt are going to have breakout seasons in 2010 -- Holt seems like a slightly lesser version of Chase D'arnaud to me and you saw how his 2009 season went. I think Moreno is going to be a fast-mover this year and put himself in the prime discussion for a bullpen spot in 2011.

9. John Russell and Neil Huntington both get extensions -- I think NH deserves 3 more years to see his work through. It usually takes 3-4 years to see a draft class come up to the surface so he needs AT LEAST 2011 to see his 2008 class, right? Plus, I have agreed with the concepts of his trades, if not all the pieces received. As for Russell, I'm not thrilled about this part of the prediction, but I think they will give him 2 years (2011/2012) to actually have some impact players to work with and make a go of it. 2 more years of wanting to use a defribrulator on him during his press conferences.

10. Nutting brings in a minor partner to the ownership group -- Unless his will is made of complete iron, I think Nutting hears the natives beating the drums. He will try to appease them by finding a partner willing to infuse a small percentage of cash into the enterprise. It will be a local businessman, not Lemieux/Burkle, that has been out of the public's radar screen.

OK, there you go. 10 predictions. We'll see in October how I did.

Cutch-22's potential long-term contract

WARNING! MISLEADING POST TITLE ALERT!

No, Andrew McCutchen did not sign a long-term contract or has even been offered one by the Pirates. But fast-forward to the All-Star Break this year....the Pirates have called up Pedro Alvarez, Brad Lincoln, and possibly Jose Tabata. Combined with Cutch-22 and some complementary pieces like Garrett Jones and Lastings Milledge, you can squint and see a respectable team forming on the horizon.

By the All-Star break 2010, Cutch-22 will have just over a full year in the majors. If he has avoided the sophomore slump, I would like to see the Pirates present him with a long-term contract to keep in the black and gold, patrolling CF of PNC Park, for a long time.

The contract that I would use as a template is Grady Sizemore's current deal, signed after he had 1 year and 1 month in the majors as well. It was signed in March of 2006 (he was called up late in 2004). The amounts for Sizemore were/are:
2006 (his 2nd pre-arb year) $500,000
2007 (his 3rd pre-arb year) $750,000
2008 (his 1st arb year) $3,000,000
2009 (his 2nd arb year) $4,600,000
2010 (his 3rd arb year) $5,600,000
2011 (his 1st FA year) $7,500,000
2012 (his 2nd FA year) $8,500,000 club option

Taking out his cup of coffee in 2004, Sizemore has been worth 27.2 Wins Above Replacement over his first 5 years, which even accounts for his injury-plagued 2009 campaign. He is averaging 5.4 WAR/year, which is worth $24.3M/year on the free agent market. Let's all agree that he has been a steal for the Indians.

Here's the strange part...take a look at Sizemore's 2005, his first full season
.289/.348/.484 (832 OPS) with 22 HR, 37 2B, 11 3B and 22 Steals

Here's Andrew's 2009, exactly 2/3 of a season...
.286/.365/.471 (836 OPS) with 12 HR, 26 2B, 9 3B and 22 Steals
It's not hard to increase those numbers by 50% and see that their two seasons were nearly identical.

Now, Sizemore has a touch more HR power than Cutch-22 may ever have, but they are in the same discussion in terms of type of player and ceiling.

Why is this contract good for Andrew McCutchen?
1. It provides long-term guaranteed financial security. That money is his no matter if he suffers a career-ending injury the day after signing it, has a horrible slump and never reaches the heights of his rookie season or his potential, or any other unforeseen circumstance.

2. It gives him a shade more money in his first 3 years of the contract that he would make going year to year. Yes, it's minor change, but I imagine in a clubhouse the pecking order is how much money you make.

3. It shows him that the Pirates want him to be a cornerstone. No, don't compare this to McLouth. I think we can all agree that a 23 year old Andrew has a little more long-term promise than 27 year old Nate.

Why is this contract good for the Pirates?
1. It gives them cost certainty on one of their potential superstars. Assume that Cutch-22 is a consistent 4 WAR player. His FA worth would be $18M/year (think Torii Hunter). Using the 20%/40%/60% of arbitration, you could be looking at $3.6M, $7.2M, and $10.8M in arb potentially going year to year. This potential contract saved them huge money in the last 2 arb years and buys out 2 FA years.
As a reference, BJ Upton is asking for $3.3M in arb with the Rays. Hunter Pence signed for $3.5M with the Astros after asking for $4.1M.

2. It shows the public that they are serious about locking up the core. The Pirates before moving into PNC signed Kendall and Giles to multi-year deals and got a huge bump in public support. The Pirates, with a much more jaded public, got a mini-bump of support when they recently signed Maholm, Doumit, and McLouth to multi-year deals. But this would trump them all. The Pirates will sink or swim with Cutch-22 and Alvarez.

3. It sends a message to the league. The Pirates are serious about winning and not just growing players for the bigger teams to poach. It could have a small effect on future free agent dealings.

In the past, I have advocated for a max length of 5 years for a position player contract. I'm going to break my own rule for this one. Cutch-22 is a special player and is the first player in my post-college life (read: adult life) that I want to see start and finish his career as a Pittsburgh Pirate.

Andrew McCutchen's new nickname

Nicknaming people by their first initial and first syllable of their last name is passe. It's so late 90's/early 00's.....

Calling Andrew McCutchen A-Mac just cheapens him. He needs his own name to stake out his territory.

Now let me preface this by saying that I'm probably not the first person in the world to come up with this nickname for Andrew McCutchen. But I either contribute or browse a good deal of Pirate blogs and have not heard it mentioned yet, so I'll claiming ownership of the intellectual property!!

As with most of my good ideas, I came up with this one in the shower this morning. So, at least to me, from this point forth I will refer to Andrew McCutchen as:

Cutch-22

It's got his name, his number, and a book reference all right there. (Heller's classic Catch-22....jeez, read a book every once in a while!)

New nickname. Soon to be everywhere. Book it.