What If Andrew McCutchen was drafted by the Rays?

It's hard to believe that the Rays were at one time not The Little Franchise that could, but you have to go alllllll the way back to the year 2005 to find when they were still flailing away. At that time in 2005, they were in the midst of the final death throes of the GM Chuck LaMar/Owner Vince Namoli era.

It was June 2005 and the annual draft was upon the "Devil" Rays. The Rays were in their customary spot of picking in the Top 10 of the draft, this time in the 8th slot. There was a great amount of internal debate within the Devil Rays' front office on who to take with their first round pick. There was a faction in the front office that wanted to take Florida high school star Andrew McCutchen, but there was a larger more vocal faction that wanted to get a college player to help the team much sooner (read: try and save their jobs). If anything of these first two paragraphs sound hauntingly familiar to you, just flash forward two years to the summer of 2007 when the Pirates went "safe" and picked Danny Moskos in the draft. It's no coincidence that LaMar and Littlefield were both considered two of the worst GM's in modern years.

I thought it might be interesting to contemplate how Andrew McCutchen's career may have been different had that minority faction in the Devil Rays' front office won out.

Let's assume that McCutchen signs with the Devil Rays and at the slot amount, just as he did with the Pirates. He would probably have been assigned to Princeton of the Applachian League, as the Devil Rays don't have a Gulf/Arizona League team for HS players. The Rays are notorious for going slow with their young pitchers, but not as much with their hitters, so in 2006 let's say that McCutchen would have been assigned to the Southwest Michigan Whitecaps in the Low A Midwest League. The Midwest League is a much tougher hitting environment, especially in the early part of the year due to cold conditions, but it is safe to assume that McCutchen would still have done well.

In 2007, McCutchen would have been promoted to Vero Beach in the Florida State League. The FSL is considered to be a pitcher's league, due to the oppressive heat and humidity in the summer, plus some expansive outfields at certain parks. The Pirates aggressively promoted McCutchen to Double A Altoona Curve in 2007, but the Devil Rays would probably have taken it one rung at a time with him.

2008 would have seen McCutchen promoted to the Montgomery Biscuits in the Southern League, which skews towards a hitters league. It is easy to envision the 21 year old McCutchen doing quite well in this league. Continuing with the one level at a time theory, McCutchen would have gone to the Durham Bulls in 2009 as a 22 year old in the International League. The Devil Rays are very cost conscious and like to control their assets more than any team in the league, so it is not hard to imagine McCutchen spending all of 2009 in the IL.

What would have happened in 2010, though? At the major league level, BJ Upton was firmly entrenched in CF for the now-Rays. Carl Crawford was ensconced in LF, but would soon be leaving the Rays for free agency at the end of the year. Ben Zobrist was coming off of a huge breakout year in 2009, even though his 2010 was a down year, but he wasn't going anywhere in RF.

If the Rays were out of playoff contention, it would be conceivable that they could have traded Crawford mid-season to recoup some value in prospects. However, the Rays made a playoff push in 2010. As a result of the playoff run, plus the presence of three solid options, it seems as if McCutchen could have spent a 2nd full season in AAA.

McCutchen may not have made his major league debut until the start of the 2011 season (as a 24 year old), replacing Crawford in LF, as Upton is considered to be a high quality CF. This past season may have been McCutchen's rookie season if he were a member of the Rays, not his 3rd overall season and 2nd full season like it was with the Pirates.

As we have seen with Evan Longoria, Wade Davis, and recently Matt Moore, the Rays are not shy about locking up young talent early on in the process. The Pirates are trying to do that right now, but McCutchen may have concerns about the future of the Pirates. That may not be the case with the Rays, as they have been quite successful in recent years.

As difficult as it would be to imagine McCutchen in any other uniform, it is possible that he would have had a slower yet ultimately more rewarding career, in terms of both team success and short-term financial success, if the "Devil" Rays had made a different decision in that draft room in 2005.

Andrew McCutchen is having a down year

Last year, I wrote about how some Pirate fans felt that 2010 was a down year for Andrew McCutchen. I attempted to refute those claims on the basis that it was his perceived defensive shortcomings that held his season's perception down.

So it is somewhat surprising that I am here to type that 2011 was a down year for Cutch-22. On the surface this seems counterintuitive as McCutchen is in the midst of a 5.3 WAR season after his first two years being 3.5 and 3.7 respectively.

The first half of the year looked like McCutchen was on the verge of becoming a legitimate superstar in the league as he went .291/.390/.505 (894 OPS) with 14 HR and 15 SB's in the 88 games prior to the All-Star break. But McCutchen came out cold from the ASB and has stayed cold in the 2nd half, with a .226/.335/.382 (717 OPS) line and 6 HR and 5 SB's in 52 games.

Contrary to last year, when McCutchen and the rest of the outfielders were subjected to the bizarre defensive alignments, Cutch-22 has a very favorable Ultimate Zone Rating for his fielding (4.8/150 versus his -12.9/150 in 2010). So last year's 3.7 WAR was held down by his poor defensive rating while his 5.3 WAR may be buoyed by his positive defensive rating. I'm becoming evermore skeptical of defensive ratings, so when I see a player greatly augmented by one, it sticks out.

My reasoning is that McCutchen's Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) has held steady from his first two years. His three wOBA's are (in order) .368, .363, and .364. Additionally, his OPS's are steady at 836, 814, and 830. So McCutchen's offensive component of his WAR rating has held steady, but his defensive rating (the part that I'm skeptical of true value) has fluctuated which has caused his high WAR total of 5.3 in 2011.

Something else to be concerned about is that his overall contact percentages have dropped this year too. As per his Fangraphs page, his contact rate within the strike zone has dropped from 90.6% to 87.9% this year. His overall contact rate for all pitches has also dropped from 84.6% to 81.0% and his swinging strike rate has increased from 5.8% to 7.6% this year.

Let me clarify something -- I am still a huge, huge McCutchen fan. I think he has another gear in him and he is capable of having a 25 HR/40 SB season, which would be monsterous. But this season is not his best one. The good news is that Cutch-22 will not turn 25 until October, which means his peak seasons of age 27-29 are still ahead of him and in line for us as Pirates fans.

Is it worth it to have a Face of the Franchise their whole career?

Perhaps as a fan of a small-revenue club, this whole post should be taken with an entire shaker of salt. In my beaten down mentality as a Pirates fan, I’m wondering if it is worth it to have a Face of the Franchise player spend his whole career with one team. At some point, it seems with the escalated salaries today that a player is being vastly overpaid for his services rendered.

Is it better to squeeze all the value out of player in his three minimum wage years plus his three arbitration years and then let some other team get saddled with an overpaid free agent contract? Of course the player I have in mind is Andrew McCutchen.

It’s no secret that I’m a huge fan of the first true five-tool talent that the Pirates have had since Barry Lamar Bonds roamed the outfield. His production, at an assumed salary of around $435,000 in 2011, is a steal in baseball salary terms. In fact, Fangraphs recently had an article discussing the top players in the majors in terms of surplus value over the past 2 years. Surplus value is the difference in a player’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and the dollar equivalent ($4.25M/WAR average over the past 2 years) minus their actual contract salary. For instance, if a player was worth 8 WAR combined over the past 2 years, his presumed WAR worth would be $34M. If that same player earned $500,000 each year ($1M total), his surplus value would be $34M - $1M = $33M.

Fangraphs anointed McCutchen as their pick, along with Jason Heyward, as the newest potential Surplus Value Stars. McCutchen produced 6.7 WAR over his first 1+ seasons (2009 was not a full season, as he was called up in June).
Let’s assume that Cutch-22 signs a contract extension similar to Grady Sizemore’s contract that he signed back in March 2006 when Sizemore had the same 1+ seasons under his belt as McCutchen. Here are Sizemore’s salaries and WAR’s for each season under that deal:

2004 (partial year, “free” year to Indians in terms of arbitration time) = 1.1 WAR, $3.3M value, $300K salary
2005 = 5.4 WAR, $18.4M value, $320K salary
2006 = 7.3 WAR, $27.1M value, $500K salary
2007 = 5.7 WAR, $23.7M value, $900K salary
2008 = 7.1 WAR, $31.9M value, $3.2M salary
2009 = 1.9 WAR, $8.6M value, $4.6M salary
2010 = -0.3 WAR, -$1.2M value, $5.6M salary

2005 to 2007 represent Sizemore’s min wage years, while 2008 to 2010 would be his arbitration years if he didn’t sign the contract he did. His contract bought out his first FA year (2011) for $7.5M, with a team option for $8.5M in 2012. At the time of signing this deal and even the first few years, it seemed like an absolute steal of a deal. But starting in 2009, Sizemore encountered a series of injuries, culminating with dreaded microfracture surgery on his knee last year.

The Indians have received 28.2 WAR from Sizemore during his first 6+ years with the club, the standard years a player gets before free agency. That WAR translates to a $111.8M value on the open market, yet the Indians only paid Sizemore $15.4M over this time, giving the Indians a Surplus Value of $96.4M. Even if Sizemore did not play a single inning for the Indians in 2011 and they paid him $7.5M for nothing this year, he would still be a ridiculous steal of a contract for them.

But what if Sizemore did not have that deal with the Indians and left them after 2010and then developed an injury going into 2011? That new team would be saddled with a player that could be paid nearly $20M/year, based on his career to that point and similar to a Carl Crawford-type of deal, and not playing up to his fullest potential. Then there would be no Surplus Value, as a $20M player needs to produce 4 to 4.5 WAR to justify that salary every year.

Going back to McCutchen, the Sizemore deal is eminently affordable for any team, even one with limited resources like the Pirates. Normally, I advocate signing hitters to a maximum of 5 year deals, but mentioned that 6 years is possible for a franchise cornerstone. A 6 year deal would buy out the first year of Cutch-22’s free agent years. At that point, I’m wondering if it would be better for the Pirates to release him into the wild and let some other team deal with the possibility of a 30 year old Andrew McCutchen developing knee problems (Jason Bay, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Beltran) or a declining skill set.

In my heart of hearts, I would hate to see McCutchen ever play in any other uniform, but in these wintery economic times that the Pirates have put themselves in, McCutchen may price himself out of our market and his true value to the club. You never want to pay someone in the present for past glories.

A great draft class (2005) versus a bad one (2004)

Earlier this season, I examined the highly touted 2005 draft class using WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and determined that, yes, the hype was real. This is a very strong class with a combined 134.1 Wins Above Replacement to this point.

The top 5 contributors to this total are Hall of Fame-path-Ryan Zimmerman (26.4), team leader Troy Tulowitzki (17.8), iron gloved Ryan Braun (16.5), Matt Garza (9.9), and Mike Pelfrey (8.0). All of those guys were college players so they had a 2-3 year headstart on the high school outfielders like Jay Bruce (7.8), Justin Upton (7.7), Andrew McCutchen (6.7), and Colby Rasmus (5.8).

Cutch-22, with his 6.7 WAR, currently ranks 10th in this class -- right behind Ricky Romero from the Blue Jays with his 6.8.

By comparison, let's take a look at the draft class one year before this one, the 2004 class. The 2004 class at the time was said to not be deep, plus it was peppered with some high-salary-demand guys like Stephen Drew and Jered Weaver who dropped in the draft.

Nevertheless, the 2004 class has to date only compiled an 85.8 WAR, even with a one year jump on the 2005 class. Furthermore, two players (Justin Verlander with 25.3 and Jered Weaver with 18.8) have compiled nearly 50% of the WAR in this class. To show the weakness of the class, take a look at Neil Walker who had a great season with the stick and a not-so-great one with the glove. His 1.9 WAR this year and his -0.3 WAR in 2009 gives him 1.6 WAR for his career. That puts Walker in 11th place. Keep in mind that Cutch-22 is in 10th with his 6.7 WAR -- in this class he would be 4th!

Something to keep in mind, regarding the relative strengths of a draft class from year to year, as we move into the 2011 draft which is said to have one of the strongest 1st rounds in years.

Looking back on Cutch-22's "down" season

In 2009, Andrew McCutchen (otherwise referred to by a loyal following of one person as "Cutch-22") debuted for the Pirates and put forth a triple slash line of .286/.365/.471 (batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage) for an OPS of 836. Within that line were 26 doubles, 9 triples, 12 home runs, 54 runs batted in and 22 steals. That was accomplished in 108 games.

Needless to say, some people had their expectation meters set to "blast off" for McCutchen in 2010. Even as one of his biggest supporters, I was expecting more modest gains as I mentioned in the 2010 Predictions Post. I was merely thinking that he would consolidate his gains in 2010 and increase his numbers proportionally over a full season.

There is a somewhat significantly-sized undercurrent out there that 2010 was a disappointing season from Andrew McCutchen. Here is his final line over 154 games:

.286/.365/.449 (814 OPS)

Look familiar? It should, as it's the same batting average and on-base percentage as 2009, with only a slightly lower slugging percentage. In fact if you extrapolate his 2009 numbers to 154 games, here's what they would be...

26 2B's turns into 37 doubles (he had 35 in 2010)

9 3B's turns into 13 triples (he had 5 in 2010)

12 HR's turns into 17 homers (he had 16 in 2010)

22 SB's turns into 31 steals (he had 33 in 2010)

So as you can pretty easily see, the drop in slugging percentage in due in large part to his lesser amount of triples in 2010 versus 2009. I always have considered triples to be as much a measure of luck as skill, as most are the result of a misplayed ball, a bad route, or a weird bounce.

Some of the perception that Cutch-22 had a down year may be due to the fact that he suffered through two rough months in July and August. In July, he hit .254/.303/.358 (661 OPS) and in August he hit .226/.317/.415 (732 OPS). In truth, he needed a red hot September of .324/.411/.519 (930 OPS) to achieve the numbers that he did.

So what happened in the summer time? Was it due to a bad lunch meeting that he had?

In July, McCutchen sprained the AC joint of his shoulder blade while diving for a catch. Naturally, he said that he was fine after taking a few games off, but it was evident that he was playing hurt. To add injury to more injury, on August 3rd as he was just getting back on track, Mike Leake tattooed the back of his neck with a wild pitch. Those two occurences took a toll on Cutch-22 that he did not recover from until his scorching September.

If McCutchen were not hurt, which granted is a big qualifier for any player in any year, it is well within reason that he would have had a 20 HR/40 SB season. Do you know how many players in MLB had that kind of year in 2010?

Zero.

BJ Upton (18 HR/42 SB) and Carl Crawford (19 HR/47 SB) came the closest. And keep in mind that Carl Crawford is who McCutchen is starting to draw the closest comparisons to around the league. The last Pirate to have a 20 HR/40 SB season was one Barry Lamar Bonds, so that should put a finer point on how difficult it truly is to do.

Here's something else to consider. Around the league in 2010, the average numbers for a leadoff hitter (where he will probably be in 2011 most of the time) were .264/.329/.382 (711 OPS). McCutchen was well above the norm in all of these categories. For all CF's, the average numbers were .261/.326/.405 (731 OPS). Again, Cutch-22 was well above the average for all of these categories.

I feel fairly comfortable that we have now established Cutch-22's baseline season in 2010. I only expect better things in 2011, especially since more pieces have been added around him in the lineup. He doesn't have to feel pressured to win every game on his own. Walker, Tabata, and Alvarez all did that themselves this year, too.

When the high school outfielder draft class of 2005 was working their way through the minors, chats on Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus would always ask the moderator to rank the long-term futures of Justin Upton, Cameron Maybin, Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus, and Andrew McCutchen. Pretty much every time, the list would look like: Upton, Bruce, Maybin, McCutchen, Rasmus (sometimes Rasmus and McCutchen would flip flop positions). I always contended that McCutchen would be the steady and consistent player, while the others (due to their higher K rates) would have higher peaks but lower lows, too. At this point, especially after Upton's down year, I would not feel uncomfortable ranking them Upton, McCutchen, Rasmus, Bruce, and Maybin maybe being a bust.

The one facet of his game that I would like McCutchen to improve in is his defense. He has been poorly rated by Ultimate Zone Rating statistically and his rainbows throws and shaky routes don't pass my eye test. I think a good offseason with a coach can remedy most of those problems.

Andrew McCutchen is without a doubt the top reason for me to look forward to April 2011 and the start of a new Pirates season. I am a complete masochist.

My lunch with Andrew McCutchen

As you all know from following this blog, I'm super cool. So it's no big deal for me to call up my main man Andrew McCutchen, star CF for the Pittsburgh Pirates and have a nice lunch in the Strip District.....

All right...I know. I'm a big techno-nerd. I'm not fooling anyone.

I took a vacation day today (much needed, in my opinion) and DB~ and I went down to the Strip District to do some shopping of various ethnic food nationalities. But first we stopped for breakfast/lunch at Pamela's. It was a great meal, as it is usually is at Pamela's. DB~ had strawberry crepes and I had a pork BBQ sandwich with onion rings and cole slaw.

Now...I always prefer to sit with my back to the wall. Part of it is so that I can sit and people watch, but a lot of it is my irrational fear of wanting to see if someone is going to come charging at me with a knife or something. Just go with it.

So I have my pork BBQ sandwich going head-long into the ol' cake cruncher and in walks an African-American gentleman with his dreadlocks pulled back in a bunch behind his head.

It's Andrew Stefan McCutchen. Cutch-22. The Face of the Franchise. The guy who was the impetus for me joining OnlyBucs (my version of Facebook, since I'm not on the real one) and a guy I have written about numerous times on this blog (check the sidebar for "Andrew McCutchen" and "Cutch-22" tags).

I sat there with my pork BBQ raised up in my hand...totally dumbfounded. DB~ half-turned to check he and his girlfriend out. I instantly starting having all these thoughts flash through my head...

"Should I talk to him?" "Should I give him a head nod on the way out?" "Should I give him the fist of solidarity?" "Do I tell him about OnlyBucs?" "Am I going to get a protection from abuse order placed against me?"

Andrew was with a beautiful girl. I was with a beautiful girl. Maybe the four of us could go out for dinner sometime. I could cook dinner for the 4 of us, Andrew could read some of his original poetry. It would be just lovely....

"Don't embarass yourself." Ahhhh...nothing like DB~ to snap me back into reality.

He still didn't have his food yet and we were done, so DB~ agreed to go pay the check and I would go over and "just say hi". I decided to wing it on what I was going to say.

Now...I've met a lot of local celebrities and a few national celebrities. I'm not starstruck. Except now. This is my favorite Pirate. The guy who I hope against hope is a Pirate his whole career.

I cautiously approached him and said, "Hi there..." He looked up surprised. "A lot of people are pulling for you guys. You'll turn it around soon. Good luck." And then I pretty much did a 180 and walk-sprinted out of the restaurant.

What a dork I was. I got the impression he sort of wanted to be left alone, so I pulled the ripcord early, like Goose in Top Gun.

BTW, the picture above is one that I surrepetitiously took through the table of 4 sitting next to us. Cutch-22 is in the background with his head down. He's the black guy.

Bold and semi-bold predictions for the 2010 Pirates and the minors

One of the reasons I started this blog is so that I can go back periodically and re-read my stuff to see what level of idiocy I may/may not have been espousing. No one seems to back-check their opinions on the Interwebs, but I intend to go back and grade these predictions:

1. The Pirates will win 76 games -- OK, I've covered this one in my WAR-based analysis of the team. Give me a +/- of 2 wins on this one. I think the makings of a winning team will start to materialize this season.

2. Robbie Grossman's LH-hitting struggles will continue and he will give up switch hitting -- As a RH hitter his OPS was 897 and his K-rate was 24%. As a LH hitter his OPS was 679 and his K-rate was 40%. I think if the trend continues up to mid-season, he will abandon switch-hitting.

3. Quincy Latimore will continue to show that he is not a prospect -- Admittedly, I seem to have an ax to grind with Latimore. I think it's just that people want so badly for him to be a prospect when in reality he is not even close. His K/BB rate last year was 25%/5% with a .251 BA, 3 steals, and poor defense as a LF. The BB rate will not play as he continues to move up. He is already low on the defensive spectrum. He doesn't make great contact and he's not fast on the bases. Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?

4. Pedro Alvarez will hit .260 with 20 HR's but a 30% K rate in the majors -- Pedro will show us enough to warrant setting the Excitement Meter to 10 in 2011. Cutch-22 spoiled us last year with an electric debut. I think Pedro will be more of a rookie with his struggles, but ready to explode in 2011. Speaking of Cutch-22....

5. Andrew McCutchen will more or less consolidate his gains in 2010 -- I'm not saying he'll have a Sophomore Slump, but rather he will put a similar line to his .286/.365/.471 2009 season. His counting stats will increase proportionally, not exponentially as some are hoping/predicting.

6. Tony Sanchez will put up a season in 2010 that will make Ryan Doumit expendable -- I think Sanchez ends 2010 in Altoona and has a season significant enough to warrant Huntington trading Doumit in the 2010 offseason. Jaramillo will hold the fort in 2011 until Sanchez is ready to come up.

7. Zach Von Rosenburg will fail to live up to the lofty expectations in 2010 -- It actually semi-pained me to type that, but I think his present stuff (high 80's FB, shaky secondary stuff) will get him lit up in full-season ball in 2010. He was always more of a projection than a present-day stud, so I think folks will see sub-par numbers and write him off. Similar to Quinton Miller last year.

8. Diego Moreno and Brock Holt are going to have breakout seasons in 2010 -- Holt seems like a slightly lesser version of Chase D'arnaud to me and you saw how his 2009 season went. I think Moreno is going to be a fast-mover this year and put himself in the prime discussion for a bullpen spot in 2011.

9. John Russell and Neil Huntington both get extensions -- I think NH deserves 3 more years to see his work through. It usually takes 3-4 years to see a draft class come up to the surface so he needs AT LEAST 2011 to see his 2008 class, right? Plus, I have agreed with the concepts of his trades, if not all the pieces received. As for Russell, I'm not thrilled about this part of the prediction, but I think they will give him 2 years (2011/2012) to actually have some impact players to work with and make a go of it. 2 more years of wanting to use a defribrulator on him during his press conferences.

10. Nutting brings in a minor partner to the ownership group -- Unless his will is made of complete iron, I think Nutting hears the natives beating the drums. He will try to appease them by finding a partner willing to infuse a small percentage of cash into the enterprise. It will be a local businessman, not Lemieux/Burkle, that has been out of the public's radar screen.

OK, there you go. 10 predictions. We'll see in October how I did.

Cutch-22's potential long-term contract

WARNING! MISLEADING POST TITLE ALERT!

No, Andrew McCutchen did not sign a long-term contract or has even been offered one by the Pirates. But fast-forward to the All-Star Break this year....the Pirates have called up Pedro Alvarez, Brad Lincoln, and possibly Jose Tabata. Combined with Cutch-22 and some complementary pieces like Garrett Jones and Lastings Milledge, you can squint and see a respectable team forming on the horizon.

By the All-Star break 2010, Cutch-22 will have just over a full year in the majors. If he has avoided the sophomore slump, I would like to see the Pirates present him with a long-term contract to keep in the black and gold, patrolling CF of PNC Park, for a long time.

The contract that I would use as a template is Grady Sizemore's current deal, signed after he had 1 year and 1 month in the majors as well. It was signed in March of 2006 (he was called up late in 2004). The amounts for Sizemore were/are:
2006 (his 2nd pre-arb year) $500,000
2007 (his 3rd pre-arb year) $750,000
2008 (his 1st arb year) $3,000,000
2009 (his 2nd arb year) $4,600,000
2010 (his 3rd arb year) $5,600,000
2011 (his 1st FA year) $7,500,000
2012 (his 2nd FA year) $8,500,000 club option

Taking out his cup of coffee in 2004, Sizemore has been worth 27.2 Wins Above Replacement over his first 5 years, which even accounts for his injury-plagued 2009 campaign. He is averaging 5.4 WAR/year, which is worth $24.3M/year on the free agent market. Let's all agree that he has been a steal for the Indians.

Here's the strange part...take a look at Sizemore's 2005, his first full season
.289/.348/.484 (832 OPS) with 22 HR, 37 2B, 11 3B and 22 Steals

Here's Andrew's 2009, exactly 2/3 of a season...
.286/.365/.471 (836 OPS) with 12 HR, 26 2B, 9 3B and 22 Steals
It's not hard to increase those numbers by 50% and see that their two seasons were nearly identical.

Now, Sizemore has a touch more HR power than Cutch-22 may ever have, but they are in the same discussion in terms of type of player and ceiling.

Why is this contract good for Andrew McCutchen?
1. It provides long-term guaranteed financial security. That money is his no matter if he suffers a career-ending injury the day after signing it, has a horrible slump and never reaches the heights of his rookie season or his potential, or any other unforeseen circumstance.

2. It gives him a shade more money in his first 3 years of the contract that he would make going year to year. Yes, it's minor change, but I imagine in a clubhouse the pecking order is how much money you make.

3. It shows him that the Pirates want him to be a cornerstone. No, don't compare this to McLouth. I think we can all agree that a 23 year old Andrew has a little more long-term promise than 27 year old Nate.

Why is this contract good for the Pirates?
1. It gives them cost certainty on one of their potential superstars. Assume that Cutch-22 is a consistent 4 WAR player. His FA worth would be $18M/year (think Torii Hunter). Using the 20%/40%/60% of arbitration, you could be looking at $3.6M, $7.2M, and $10.8M in arb potentially going year to year. This potential contract saved them huge money in the last 2 arb years and buys out 2 FA years.
As a reference, BJ Upton is asking for $3.3M in arb with the Rays. Hunter Pence signed for $3.5M with the Astros after asking for $4.1M.

2. It shows the public that they are serious about locking up the core. The Pirates before moving into PNC signed Kendall and Giles to multi-year deals and got a huge bump in public support. The Pirates, with a much more jaded public, got a mini-bump of support when they recently signed Maholm, Doumit, and McLouth to multi-year deals. But this would trump them all. The Pirates will sink or swim with Cutch-22 and Alvarez.

3. It sends a message to the league. The Pirates are serious about winning and not just growing players for the bigger teams to poach. It could have a small effect on future free agent dealings.

In the past, I have advocated for a max length of 5 years for a position player contract. I'm going to break my own rule for this one. Cutch-22 is a special player and is the first player in my post-college life (read: adult life) that I want to see start and finish his career as a Pittsburgh Pirate.

Andrew McCutchen's new nickname

Nicknaming people by their first initial and first syllable of their last name is passe. It's so late 90's/early 00's.....

Calling Andrew McCutchen A-Mac just cheapens him. He needs his own name to stake out his territory.

Now let me preface this by saying that I'm probably not the first person in the world to come up with this nickname for Andrew McCutchen. But I either contribute or browse a good deal of Pirate blogs and have not heard it mentioned yet, so I'll claiming ownership of the intellectual property!!

As with most of my good ideas, I came up with this one in the shower this morning. So, at least to me, from this point forth I will refer to Andrew McCutchen as:

Cutch-22

It's got his name, his number, and a book reference all right there. (Heller's classic Catch-22....jeez, read a book every once in a while!)

New nickname. Soon to be everywhere. Book it.