Trade Target - Kevin Frandsen

Although the most glaring need on the Pirates right now is in Right Field, it is important to also upgrade the bench at the trade deadline too.  Right now on any given night, the bench available to Clint Hurdle is Gaby Sanchez, Michael McKenry, Travis Snider, Brandon Inge, and Clint Barmes.

All of those range from awful to avert-your-eyes-awful.  Neal Huntington may have some in-house upgrades at his disposal in the form of Tony Sanchez (backup catcher) and Andrew Lambo (5th OF, 1B).  But a player who help immediately would be Kevin Frandsen of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Frandsen is 31, so he's plenty old enough for Clint Hurdle to play him in the field.  He plays 2B, 3B, and SS -- or at least he's capable enough of standing there -- so he can replicate what Inge is doing for this team.  Plus, unlike Inge, he's capable of hitting a baseball with a wooden bat.

Right now Frandsen is hitting .295/.380/.440 (820 OPS) with 3 HR.  The great thing about Frandsen is his strikeout rate is 11.0%, which is actually the highest of his career, so he's a good contact hitter that can put it in play and move runners over.

The interesting thing about Frandsen is that he's a failed Giant prospect that has bounced around in his career.  He's only had two decent years (2012 and 2013 with the Phillies) in his spotty career, so he still has 2 additional years of control after 2013.  He only makes $850,000 in his arb-1 year in 2013, so there's no real monetary cost to obtain him.

Because of the years of control and the fact that he's a 1.0 WAR player, the Pirates would have to give up something of note.  Perhaps Chase d'Arnaud or Josh Harrison plus a pitcher like Joely Rodriguez would do the trick.

Huntington clearly must know how awful his bench is right now, so I imagine that he's at least been reviewing tape of Frandsen.  I'd love to see him take the Turnpike over to the Steel City.

Trade Target - Alex Rios

It's hard to type this post with the giant swarms of locusts outside my house coupled with the raining tree frogs.  Or at least that's what I expect will happen shortly with the Pirates in 1st place with the best overall record in MLB at 48-30.  Last year, when the Pirates were 62-46 at their high water mark after two-thirds of the season, I assumed it was a slam dunk for them to finish over .500.  I was thinking of playoffs and those types of things.  And then....the Pirates.

So this year I'm trying to just enjoy the ride and not get too far down the road, but it's so hard to do with the team doing so well in the standings.  We're a little over a month out from the July 31st trade deadline, so it's time to scratch that Trade Target itch again.  With Jordy Mercer solidifying things for the time being at shortstop, the only other starting position that is in dire need of an upgrade is right field.

Collectively, the Pirates’ right fielders are batting .232/.294/.366 (AVG/OBP/SLG) for an OPS of 660.  That number is the 2nd lowest on the team, ahead of only the shortstop OPS of 553.  Travis Snider has seen the lion’s share of time in RF, with 195 of the 327 plate appearances by RF’s, and has put up a triple slash line of .241/.323/.345 (for an ominous 668 OPS).  Snider has hit 2 of the Pirates’ 7 home runs hit by right fielders, neither of which is good enough for a position expected to produce power.  Simply put, your starting RF'er can't have a slugging percentage less than 400.  It doesn't matter how good of a teammate he is or how well he can grill 73 steaks.  

The good news is that this is not communist China.  The Pirates will be allowed to use capitalist principles to potentially obtain an asset by trading with another organization using desirable assets.  But who is potentially out there on the market?

The team that I’ve been focusing on lately is the Chicago White Sox.  The White Sox are a veteran-heavy lineup that is starting to show its age.  They are in dire need of a rebuild and have an abysmal farm system.  Any prospect that they obtain will be an upgrade to a system that has no foreseeable impact players to help the White Sox on the near horizon.

Alex Rios is the lone bright spot offensively for the White Sox this year.  His triple slash line is .276/.335/.459 (794 OPS) with 11 HR and 13 SB’s.  As per the defensive metric Ultimate Zone Rating, he is playing a well above average RF defensively, too.  Rios has no major LHP/RHP splits, either, and is actually a little bit better against LHP's.

Rios is under contract through 2014 at $13M/year.  He also has a club option for 2014 at $14M or a buyout for $1.5M.  Over his career, Rios has averaged 3.0 Wins Above Replacement, but in 2013 he’s on pace for a 6 WAR season.  Assuming he’s good for 3.5 more WAR this year and 4.0 WAR in 2014, that’s a 7.5 WAR for him.  One WAR is worth approximately $5.0 to $5.5M dollars on the free agent market, so his value would be $37.5 to $41.25M.  Subtracting off his $18.5M of scheduled salary (all of 2014, ⅓ of 2013, $1.5M buyout in 2015), you’re looking at $19 to $23M of surplus value.

I’ve done research on surplus value of Top 100 Baseball America Prospects at other writing stops over the years.  My research found that a hitter ranked #26-50 by Baseball America is worth $18M of surplus value over their first 6 cost-controlled years.  A hitter ranked #51-100 is worth $10M.  Likewise, a pitcher ranked #11-25 is worth $18M, a pitcher ranked #26-50 is worth $15M, and a pitcher ranked #51-100 is worth $8M.  (For completeness sake, a hitter ranked #1-10 is worth $42M, a hitter ranked #11-25 is worth $33M, and pitcher ranked #1-10 is worth $27M).

So, if the Pirates were to obtain Rios without any salary relief, they could be expected to send someone like Gregory Polanco (who should move up BA’s rankings from his preseason rank of 51) or an Alen Hanson/Tony Sanchez combo (both of whom could be in the 51-100 range).  Other packages could include Nick Kingham (should be in the 51-100 range), Josh Bell (51-100 hitter range), or some major league pieces if the White Sox want some major league readiness.

One of those pieces could be Travis Snider himself, but as a left-handed hitter it would hard to include him for the Pirates.  They could still have Alex Presley as their lefty 4th/5th OF along with righty Tabata, but I think the Pirates like having as much flexibility as possible.  Jose Tabata could be included in the deal going back to the White Sox, as the Pirates may want to shed his contract and the White Sox may be lured by youth and potential, while overlooking his injury prone nature.

Although I’ve focused just on Alex Rios in this post, there are other RF options out there that I'll be looking at in upcoming weeks. Regardless, there are options out there and the Pirates can utilize their fully stocked farm system to their advantage to make a significant upgrade.

Super 2 Status Is Not Scary

The Pirates have been shopping Joel Hanrahan around for a while now, especially since they re-signed Jason Grilli to a 2 year deal for $6.75M last week.  With Hanrahan projected to make around $7.5M via his final year of the arbitration process, it just makes "Pirates sense" that committing nearly $10.5M in 2013 (out of a $70M payroll) to 2 relievers does not make sense.

In a bit of dot-connecting, one of the teams connected to Hanrahan are the Detroit Tigers after they re-signed Anibal Sanchez to a 5 year/$80M deal.  That leaves them with a theoretical excess of starting pitchers (even though a team usually needs 7-8 options).  The Tigers also lack a "proven closer", even though they have publically declared they will go with Bruce Rondon, so they could be a possible trade partner.

One of the trade candidates from the Tigers is Rick Porcello.  Porcello was a highly touted prospect after getting drafted 27th overall in 2007 (he dropped due to bonus demands).  He skyrocketed through the minors, thanks to the Tigers' typically aggressive promotion procedure, and made his debut in early April 2009.  Porcello has pitched nearly 4 full seasons and won't even be 24 until two days after this Christmas.  Porcello has had a good, not great, career to this point.  He is a sinkerball pitcher that pitches in front of perhaps the worst infield defense in the Majors, plus he does rack up a huge amount of strikeouts (typical of sinkerball pitchers).  Knowing Neal Huntington's love of sinkerballers, Porcello would seem like a natural fit.

Here's the interesting part about Porcello -- even though he has nearly 4 full seasons, Porcello still has 3 years of control left for either the Tigers or whatever team trades for him.  How is that possible?  It's possible because Porcello officially has 3 years and 170 days of service time.  In baseball terms, a year is considered 172 days.  Because the Tigers brought Porcello up a week into the 2009 season, they were able to buy a nearly full year of service from Porcello (he made 31 starts) and still reap the benefits of him to the maximum -- he pitched 170 innings a pitched to a 3.96 ERA/4.77 FIP/4.27 xFIP and produced 2 WAR as a 20 year old.

Because of those 2 days saved, Porcello became a Super 2 player in 2012 and was arbitration-eligible for the first time this year.  For Porcello's 2nd year of 4 in his Super 2 progression, he is projected to earn $4.7M.  Porcello has consistently produced 2 to 2.9 WAR in each of his 4 years, so he is a steal for his projected salaries going forward.  Imagine if he actually had a halfway decent defense behind him to catch some of his 52.3% ground ball ratio.

The moral of this story is that Super 2 is not something to be scared of or be concerned about as a fan.  The Tigers maximized their use of Porcello and could essentially have him for 7 full seasons.  The Pirates' Super 2 candidate, Neil Walker, has 2 years 166 days of service time, but approximately 30 days of that time is from his cameo appearance in September 2009.  The Pirates brought him up in late May 2010 for good, so they didn't reap the full amount of the season like the Tigers did with Porcello.

Teams have a financial interest to keep their players out of Super 2 status.  Instead of 3 full years at minimum scale and 3 years of arbitration, a Super 2 player has 2 full years of minimum scale (plus whatever time accrued during the call-up year) and 4 years of arbitration.  It's pricier for the team, of course, but for a team like the Tigers the benefits of a quality full year definitely outweigh the cost down the road.  If a player is good enough to help a team, he should be brought up just after the start of a season to gain the extra year of control -- Super 2 be damned.

Trade Target - Hunter Pence

Let's get this out of the way right up front -- everything Hunter Pence does is awkward.  I imagine he even eats soup with his elbows extended high in the air with the same arm bar he uses when he bats.  Watching Pence hit, run, and throw is like a sex crime to the eyes for a baseball purist, I would guess.

But what he can do is play baseball and play baseball at an amazing consistent level.  Pence made his debut with the Astros in 2007 and played 108 games (2/3 of a season) that year.  In the four full years since then (2008 to 2011), Pence played in 157, 159, 156, and 154 games.  In those same four years, Pence hit 25, 25, 25, and 22 home runs.  In that first year in 2007?  17 homers.  In 2012 through 98 games? 17 homers -- on pace for 27 homers if he plays 156 games.

If you want some second tier stats, Pence's Isolated Power (slugging minus batting average, to reflect extra base power) has been a tight range of .179 to .197 in his 4 full years.  It's .180 this year.  His WAR totals for 2008 to 2011 have gone from 3.2 to 4.7, with the average around 3.8/year.  This year he is only at 1.2, but it is mostly a poor defensive rating that is dragging that down.  His offensive component is relatively the same as in past years.  That Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) has gone from .334 to .378.

This year Father Time has started to catch up with the Phillies.  Their 46-54 record has forced them to consider re-tooling their lineup, but they have some fairly immovable contracts due to veterans that have injury concerns (Halladay, Utley, Howard) or are on terrible deals (Howard).  They are in desperate need of an injection of youth to this graybeard team.  Oddly, the Phillies decided to try and spend their way out of the morass by extending Cole Hamels to a 6 year $144M deal, but he is at least in the prime of his career.

All of this brings us back to Pence.  Next year, Pence will go to arbitration for the 4th and final time.  After 2013, he will be a free agent, so any team interested will have him for more than a rental like Shane Victorino.  However, unlike Victorino, Pence is still good at baseball.

In Pence's 4 arbitration years, his salaries have been $3.5M, $6.9M, $10.4M so far to date.  If you use the 20-40-60-80% of free market value for a Super 2 player, Pence can expect to make around $14M in 2013.  That would set his free market value at around $17.5M/year.  Using the $5M/WAR estimate, that would put Pence at around 3.5 WAR...very close to the 3.8 WAR/year I discussed earlier.

If Pence put up 3.5 WAR in 2013 and was paid $14M, that would be a surplus value of $3.5M.  Assume he wouldn't give any surplus value in 2012 due to his inflated $10.4M salary and low WAR this year due to his defense.  Finally, since Pence is not a rental any team acquiring him could offer arbitration after 2013 and receive a comp pick if he turns it down.  Those picks have had a value of $2.5M in recent years.  Adding all that up gives you a surplus value of $6M for acquiring Pence.

In terms of prospect worth, that would be one Grade B hitter -- like a Matt Curry or Alex Dickerson type.  You could also make it work with some Grade C pitchers like a Bryan Morris, Zack Von Rosenberg, Justin Wilson combo.

Pence would lock down RF for the Pirates for the next year and change, all at a low prospect cost.  Of course the prospect cost would rise if Philly kicked in money, but they probably need to save a few sheckels these days.

Trade Target - Carlos Quentin

As we sit at the All-Star Break, the Pirates are surprisingly in first place.  Even more stunning is the fact that they are 11 games over .500 at 48-37.  The dynamics of this season have shifted dramatically from not only the start of the season, but even in the last 3 weeks.  Now it's not just that this team could eke out enough wins to break the 81 win mark, but (to the dismay of Jim Mora) there is legitimate talk of making the playoffs.

To that end, there have been some strong rumors in recent days about players the Pirates are sniffing around.  One of which is Padres outfielder, Carlos Quentin.  Quentin would not be my first choice for slugging outfielder, as I have stated in the past that would be Josh Willingham.  But the Padres seem motivated to sell and the Pirates are motivated to buy, so here we are.

Quentin is a slugger.  Pure and simple.  Not stolen base quota from him.  Not a lot of average and just an average amount of walks.  And certainly no defensive ability.  But he does hit dingerz and chicks do dig the long ball.

Quentin was hurt at the start of the season, but in the 33 games he has played he has hit like a ball of fire.  His line on the season to date is .268/.406/.518 (924 OPS, 1.7 WAR).  His career line is .253/.349/.491 (840 OPS), so there may be some regression to the mean in store.  Quentin's career WAR total is skewed by the utter disdain that defensive metrics (and the eye test) hold for his defensive disabilities.  However, his career wOBA is a nice .364, so he would be here for his stick and not his glove.

The 29 year old San Diego native is being paid $7.025M this season and he is a free agent at the end of the year.  If you assume 1.7 WAR for the remainder of the season (to allow for some regression), that's a WAR value of $8.5M.  Subtracting 3/8 of his salary, to account for the remaining games after a July 31st trade, he would have a trade surplus number of $5.87M.  That's roughly a grade B hitter on John Sickel's list (think Robbie Grossman) or a slight overpay would be a grade B pitcher (think Nick Kingham).

Quentin would replace Garret Jones in RF, with Jones moving into a strict 1B platoon with McGehee.  Both Jones and Quentin have roughly the same isolated powers this year (.250 to .239), but Quentin has more on-base ability and is not a platoon player.  Quentin would slide nicely into the cleanup spot and give protection for Andrew McCutchen, while also allowing Pedro Alvarez to hit in the 5 hole potentially.

The Pirates are on the verge of something special and the addition of Quentin, coupled with the promotion of Starling Marte, could give them an exciting outfield and batting order.  My favorite sports saying is "Flags Fly Forever" meaning if you have a shot to win, you take it when it is presented to you.  Trading one B-level prospect will be worth it if they make the playoffs because of Quentin.

Trade Target -- Chase Headley

Recently, the Pirates were said to be looking for corner infielder help in this piece from Ken Rosenthal via MLB Trade Rumors. One of the players mentioned in the article was 3B Chase Headley from the San Diego Padres.

On the surface, Headley may not seem like much of an improvement for the Pirates, as his triple slash line is .261/.372/.416 (788 OPS) with only 7 home runs this season. However, Headley's numbers have been suppressed by the cavernous Petco Park for the Padres. His home splits for 2012 (.250/.363/.363, 726 OPS) versus his road splits for 2012 (.272/.382/.474, 856 OPS) are in line with his divergent career home/road splits (664 OPS at home, 810 OPS on road). Headley seems like a player ready to explode if he gets into a hitting environment even relatively close to neutral.

The switch-hitting Headley has hit 2/3 of his career home runs as a left-handed batter, so the shorter porch at PNC Park would cater well to that trend. Headley also brings something that is sorely lacking among Pirate hitters: plate patience. Headley's 2012 on-base percentage of .372 would be 2nd on the Pirates behind Andrew McCutchen's .382 mark. Even using Headley's career OBP rate of .346 would still place him 2nd ahead of Casey McGehee's .333 OBP in 2012. In fact, I would advocate that if Headley were to be obtained he should be installed as the leadoff hitter, but that idea may be a little too unorthodox right out of the gate.

Headley is a Super 2 player, meaning that he will get 4 cracks at the arbitration system, and 2012 is his 2nd year. His salary for 2012 is $3.475 M on the heels of an injury-beset 2011 season in which he earned $2.325M. Using the assumption that a Super 2 player is compensated in his 4 years at 20, 40, 60, and 80 percent of his presumed free agent value, you can see that Headley has been paid as if he is a $8.7 M to $11.6 M player. For the purposes of this trade analysis, I'll use his potential free agent value as $11.6 M for his remaining two Super 2 years. I will also use $1.7 M as the remaining amount on Headley's 2012 salary.

Headley's career WAR numbers have been 0.5 for 2008 (91 games), 1.5 in 2009, 4.9 in 2010, 2.7 in 2011, and 2.7 in 66 games for 2012. Using a weighted average, Headley's average WAR is right around 3.0 per season for his career. With Headley on in his age-28 season in 2012, he will still be in his prime 29 and 30 years for the next two seasons, so there is no need to regress him in this analysis due to age.

Year	Salary	WAR	FA Value	Surplus
2012	$1,700,000	1.5	$7,500,000	$5,800,000
2013	$6,960,000	3.0	$15,000,000	$8,040,000
2014	$9,280,000	3.0	$15,000,000	$5,720,000
			Total	$19,560,000

If we use the newly updated Trade Surplus Values from Pirates Prospects, Headley's surplus value of $19.6 M would equate to one hitter ranked in the 26-50 range by Baseball America, or two hitters ranked 51-100 by the same list. Alternatively, the value could also be achieved by trading a pitcher in the 11-25 range or one from the 26-50 range plus a pitcher ranked 51-100. There are any number of combinations that can be achieved, as well, especially using non Baseball America-ranked prospects with the Beyond the Box Score trade values.

Equating all this to Pirate prospects, two hitters in the 51-100 range would be Josh Bell and Starling Marte. A pitcher in the 11-25 range is Gerrit Cole or Jameson Taillon. Using John Sickels' Top 20 Pirate prospects for 2012, the grade B hitter not on the Baseball America Top 100 list ($5.5M value) is Robbie Grossman. The grade B pitchers ($7.3M value) are Luis Heredia, Kyle McPherson, and Nick Kingham. That's obviously subject to change, as I imagine some of these players' perceived values have changed since these lists came out, while other prospects (Alen Hanson, Gregory Polanco for example) are entering the equation.

It would seem more likely that for this type of transaction it would be more of a package of lesser prospects, rather than a 1 for 1 swap of Headley for a top tier prospect. The interesting item to consider is whether San Diego's GM, Josh Byrnes, would be selling Headley based on his potential to replicate his "road" stats once he gets traded away from Petco Park. In a way, he would undercutting his own stadium and bargaining position to an extent, but clearly Headley is a better player than what is seen on the surface of his stats.

Trade Target - Josh Willingham

Today against the Mets and LHP Jon Niese, the Pirates started the following four players on the corners -- the traditional power positions:
1B Casey McGehee (.186, 0 HR, slumping horribly in May)
3B Yamaico Navarro (.182, 1 HR, starting in place of LH Alvarez)
LF Gorkys Hernandez (first ML start, 0 HR, in place of Tabata)
RF Josh Harrison (.274, 1 HR, hitting well of late but not a power threat)

Between these 4 players, they might hit 15 HR this year.  Might.  That's spread over 4 positions.

It's no secret that the Pirates' offense is atrocious this year.  It's only due to the mostly exceptional pitching that the Pirates are even at 20-24, after today's loss. 

Neal Huntington knows this.  I've met Huntington numerous times and spoken to him plenty of times.  He's astute about the game of baseball.  He's not an overmatched dolt as his detractors portray him.  This is not Nero fiddling while Rome burns.

I believe him when he says that very few trades happen this time of year.  They really don't, mostly because the new smell of the clubhouse has barely worn off.  It's not even Memorial Day.  The extra wild card in each league will stunt the trade deadline, as teams will want to hang in and make a run, instead of selling off as they may have done in the past.

All that said, there are some teams that absolutely should be looking to sell right now, as their seasons are already over.  One of those teams are the Minnesota Twins.  Coming into today's action, the Twins stand at 15-27.  They have demoted Francisco Liriano to the bullpen, lost Scott Baker for the season to an arm injury, released Jason Marquis, and have 4 (4!) starting pitchers with ERA's over 8.30.  The Twins look like they are in need of a tear down and rebuild around the now-albatross contract of Joe Mauer ($23M/yr forever).  They need a combination of ML-ready talent and upside talent in their bland minor league system, Miguel Sano not-withstanding.

The only hitter they have playing above the board right now is Josh Willingham, who they signed in the past offseason to a 3 year, $21M deal.  Willingham is a LF/1B (in spacious PNC Park, he would play RF) who is 33 years old and has a triple slash right now of .289/.404/.578 (982 OPS, 172 OPS+) with 8 HR and 21 walks.  I'm including his walks because those are a rarity for any Pirate this year and he would be leading the team by 8 walks.

Willingham would not only be a legitimate RH power bat, but he would add a professional hitter to a lineup that is lacking them, outside of McCutchen (who is prone to getting homer-happy at times).  Willingham's age shouldn't be a concern.  He's obviously doing well, in a tough hitters park in Minnesota, at age 33.  The Pirates would get him for his age 33-35 seasons and, hopefully, avoid a significant decline in his skills.

What would it take to get him?  Using the trade values developed by Victor Wang (which I will be looking to update later this summer) and assuming $5M/WAR, let's take a look:
Willingham has been a fairly consistent 3 WAR player in his career.  We'll give him a pro-rated 60% of that for 2012 (assuming he would be traded in the next 2 weeks), a full 3 for 2013, and then a slight decrease to 2.5 WAR in 2014.  That will give a total of 7.3 WAR as a Pirate.  That would have a value of $36.5M.  Subtracting his remaining salary of $18.2M, again pro-rating 60% this year, gives a surplus of $18.3M.

Looking at the chart, that would be a league-wide Top 10 pitching prospect and a grade C pitcher younger than 22.  Or a league-wide Top 51-75 hitter and a grade B hitter.  Or some combination of lesser players, too.  For perspective, the Pirates Top 10 pitchers are Cole and Taillon and their Marte is a 51-75 ranked hitter.  I wouldn't trade any of those guys, but I would construct a package of multiple players.

Robbie Grossman was rated a Grade B hitter ($5.5M).  Luis Heredia is a grade B pitcher ($7.3M).  That's $12.8M of value.  Add in some ML-ready pitchers like Rudy Owens (a high floor, pitchability type that the Twins love) and Justin Wilson or Bryan Morris (combined $3.0M value) and now you're in the neighborhood.

Giving up Heredia would hurt, as would the others to certain extents, but the Pirates need help NOW.  Farm systems are there to provide cost-controlled talent to the ML team, but also to use in trades to get ML talent.

Teams to target in the offseason

I've been writing about how the Pirates should be looking into shanghai'ing talent this offseason by trading for young veterans with multiple years of control left on their contracts.

Rather than discuss players like I did last year, even though I think most of those players would be good candidates to obtain this year, I thought it may be interesting to evaluate which TEAMS may be in the market to trade.

Teams with financial problems:
NY Mets
LA Dodgers
Oakland A's

The Mets and Dodgers' financial problems are well-known, but perhaps lesser known to us East Coasters are the A's problems. Owner Lew Wolff desperately wants to move the A's to San Jose and build a corporately funded stadium, to the point that he recently backed a mayoral candidate who vowed NOT to build the A's a taxpayer-funded stadium in Oakland.

Further complicating the situation is that the Giants feel that San Jose is part of their "territory" and are actively fighting against them being able to move there. If things continue to drag on, the A's will be looking to burn the whole team down, perhaps this offseason.

Teams that need to cut salary and reload/rebuild:
Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros
Baltimore Orioles
Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins
Seattle Mariners

Whether or not all these teams realize they need to reload or rebuild is another story (I'm looking at you Minnesota).

Teams that may want to move salary in order to add salary:
St. Louis Cardinals
Florida Marlins
Washington Nationals
San Francisco Giants
Toronto Blue Jays
Los Angeles Angels

Oddly enough, all of these teams are in the market potentially for either Pujols or Fielder. All of these teams are up against their self-imposed salary caps, so they may need to move a mid-sized contract in order to clear space for these top 2 free agents.

With the Pirates showing increased attendance and Huntington already alluding to the idea that they may explore the trade market to improve the major league club, it makes sense that these teams will be mined for potential players. Each of these teams, with perhaps the exception of the Mets, has at least one interesting player with multiple years of control that could be a trade candidate.

The offseason will be an interesting one for the Pirates.

Trade Target - Conor Jackson

In perusing around the teams that are seemingly out of contention already, I stumbled on Conor Jackson as potentially being a low-cost platoon option in a trade.

The A's are one of those teams that I really don't follow a whole lot. I think they're phenomenonally boring as a franchise. I see them mired 10 games under .500 and in last place, but don't really think much of it.

So when I went to check out the A's today on Baseball-Reference, I was stunned by how putrid their offense is.

They have since traded Mark Ellis and installed Jemile Weeks, but when you look at their starters there is not a single one above 100 in OPS+.

I went on to Athletics Nation and they are talking about building around Weeks, Scott Sizemore (trade acquisition from DET who washed out there), and Chris Carter on the offensive side of things. Yikes.

They also lament how all three of their OF's are free agents at the end of the year. Now, they do have Michael Taylor in AAA, but he's a corner OF only. So I'm thinking that maybe they would go for a Gorkys Hernandez-Conor Jackson swap straight up.

About Conor Jackson:
He was a hot prospect back in 2005-06, so Neal Huntington immediately likes that.
Somehow, after all his struggles with Valley Fever, he procured a contract for 1 yr $3.3M this year, so he will be owed $1.1M from 7/31 onwards.

He's a RH, so his splits against LH's are:
.316/.402/.395 (797 OPS) with more BB than K's. He's not good at all against same-siders.

He came up as a 1B, but he's been playing the OF too in recent years, so he can help in 2 spots against southpaws.

Conor Jackson is not made of pure unicorn horn, but he could be a low-cost acquistion that may do well back in the NL. Wouldn't be my first choice of a trade target, but there may be something there. Essentially Conor Jackson would give you what Steve Pearce would, but how can you count on Steve Pearce for anything at this point?

Gorkys Hernandez is reputed to be the best defensive CF in the minors, but even with his surge this year in his numbers, I still see him struggling to maintain a 700 OPS in the majors. With McCutchen, Tabata, Marte, and possibly Presley in the mix, it's hard to see where Hernandez would fit in with the Pirates. He may be more valuable as a trade chip than as a prospect.

Trade Target/Obsession - Michael Cuddyer

Recently I laid out why the Pirates should be looking for a trade in order to improve the Pirates for 2011. One of the players that I have had my eye on in recent weeks is Michael Cuddyer from the Minnesota Twins.

Here's the lowdown on the sitch with Cuddyer and the Twins:
The Twins are currently 36-46 and in 4th place in the AL Central. Even though they got hot for a little bit in June, they are still 10 games UNDER .500. You can't be considered a contender until you are at least .500.

If they win 10 games in a row, that would put them at .500 approximately at July 18th. At that point, keeping in mind this is a perfect scenario, they would still only be .500 and probably 3-4 games out of first place with 2 weeks before the deadline.

Cuddyer is a free agent at the end of the year and makes $10.5M this season. By July 31st, he will be owed approximately $4M.

The Twins had their highest payroll ever in 2011 at $113M. Their season has been submarined by injuries to Mauer and Morneau, plus Nathan's ineffectiveness. Their offense has been wretched for most of the year.

The Twins have both Matt Capps and Joe Nathan up as free agents after this year. Capps ($7.15M) and Nathan ($11.25M) are not living up to their contracts. The rest of their bullpen is awful, as well.

The Twins have a very bland farm system, with no "wow" players on the 2012 horizon. Kyle Gibson is good, but not a future superstar.

All that said....
The Twins can save $4M and pick up 2 prospects that can help them in 2012. I would think a Diego Moreno/Alex Presley package would work for them. If the Pirates pick up all $4M, I would say only trading 1 of them would be fair.

If the Twins and Cuddyer want to get together for 2012 at a reduced rate, so be it. They would save $4M in 2011, pick up a prospect, and get him back for 2012. Maybe things go really well and the Pirates re-up him for 1-2 years, too.

Either way, Cuddyer gives the Pirates a much needed power threat and true RH'ed bat in the lineup against lefties.

It all makes perfect sense. To me at least.

Looking back at the Trade Targets series

Last fall I felt that the Pirates should deal a package of prospects in order to improve the Major League club. I was specifically targeting pitchers with multiple years of control remaining, not expecting the starting pitching to be a strength of this team.

Here's how the four pitchers I wanted are doing this year so far:

James Shields has followed up his worst season with his best season in 2011. The Rays traded Matt Garza last off-season and hung on to Shields, probably because they realized his value was at its lowest point.
In 2010, Shields was 13-15 with a 5.18 ERA (4.24 FIP), but he had his highest K/9 (8.28/9). The problems with Shields were two-fold. First, his HR/9 was 1.50, easily the highest of his career. Second his BABIP was an ungainly .341, which was well above his career average of .304. The Rays probably saw both of these things and hung on to him.

Good thing, because he is a complete beast so far in 2011. To date he is 6-4 with a 2.60 ERA (3.43 FIP) with an 8.51 K/9. His HR/9 has receded to 1.04, his BABIP is .263 and he has pitched 4 complete games already. That's one less than he pitched his whole career coming into this season.

Scott Baker in 2010 was 12-9 with a 4.49 ERA (3.96 FIP) for the Twins. He was also coming off a career high in K/9 with 7.82, but I targeted Baker because of thoughts that the Twins may want to offset some salary because of rising contracts to Mauer and Morneau. I certainly wasn't expecting the bottom to fall out completely on their 2011 season.

In 2011, Baker is doing pretty much what Baker does. He's quietly pitching well, but this time on an awful team. He's 5-4 with a 3.24 ERA (3.65 FIP) and is in the midst of re-establishing another career high in K/9 (8.64 K/9). He would have made an excellent addition to the Pirates as well.

Ricky Nolasco was another arb-eligible pitcher that I targeted, but was then signed to an extension by the Marlins. In 2010, Nolasco's numbers dropped slightly as he went 14-9 in only 157 innings. His K/9 dropped from 9.49 to 8.39 and he became more homer prone (1.37/9 in 2010). His 2010 ERA was 4.51, with a FIP of 3.86.

In 2011, his numbers are continuing to decline in certain areas, especially K/9. This year to date he has a K/9 of 6.96, but his other numbers have improved. He is 4-3 with a 4.48 ERA (3.54 FIP). There's no noticeable change in velocities on his pitches to indicate the drastic drop in K/9. Perhaps he has been instructed to not try and strike everyone out and to pitch to contact more.

The final pitcher I targeted was Gavin Floyd. Again, I tossed him in thinking that the White Sox would want to offset some salary, not expecting them to come out flat in 2011. In 2010, Floyd was coming off another solid season. He was 10-13 with a 4.08 ERA (3.46 FIP) with a 7.26 K/9 rate.

In 2011, he has been solid again with a 6-6 record, 3.94 ERA, 3.66 FIP, but his K/9 has dropped to 6.67/9. In looking at his pitch stats, his FB velocity has dropped nearly 1.5 mph this year. It hasn't affected his FB run stats, but with his changeup remaining steady it has wreaked havoc on the effectiveness of his changup, causing it to be -3.22 runs/100 pitches to date.

So all in all, I would have been very happy if the Pirates got any of these four pitchers. The way things are shaping up with the Pirates becoming resurgent in 2011, plus the impending 40 man roster crunch after the season, it appears this could be the year that the Pirates trade some minor-league depth for additions to the Major League team.

Offseason Trade Targets for Pitching (4 of 4 in a series)

This post will continue and end the series on potential offseason trade targets in the pitching market for the Pirates. All of the pitchers in the series (James Shields, Scott Baker, Ricky Nolasco, and Gavin Floyd) are either under contract for multiple years or under team control through arbitration for multiple years.

The last pitcher I'm thinking about is the least likely of the four, Gavin Floyd. I only selected him because of the General Manager of his team, the White Sox. Kenny Williams will trade anyone at anytime. He has emptied out his farm system in the past few years to get the players he feels the White Sox need to compete and succeed. I'm all in favor of trading prospects this offseason, but Kenny Williams takes it to the extreme.

One could make the argument that the Padres unexpectedly successful season is due to Kenny Williams. In July 2009, the Padres traded Jake Peavy to the White Sox for Clayton Richard and 3 other minor leaguers. Richard has been a dependable rotation staple for the Padres, while Peavy continued to be injury prone with a strange shoulder injury that has kept him out most of 2010. Trading Peavy's huge salary may have given the Padres the financial flexibility needed to keep Adrian Gonzalez, thus fueling this run for the postseason in 2010.

But getting back to Gavin Floyd....the White Sox are going to fall short again of the AL Central title this year. Perennially their payroll has hovered around the low $100M mark. Heading into 2011, the White Sox have salary committments of $75M already, with arb cases for Carlos Quentin and John Danks (plus whether or not to tender Bobby Jenks for maybe $10M) and a decision on free agent to be Paul Konerko. In short, the White Sox may be looking to retool and compete in 2011. Gavin Floyd's salary may help provide a little wiggle room for them.

Gavin Floyd, RHP -- age 28 in 2011 season

Contract details -- $5.0M in 2011, $7.0M in 2012, club option in 2013 for $9.5M

To date in 2010, Floyd has pitched 187 innings with a 7.20 K/9 rate, a 2.79 BB/9 rate, and has posted a 4.08 ERA and 3.48 FIP.

Floyd's arsenal includes a 92 mph fastball, 84 mph slider, 79 mph curve, and an 84 mph changeup. His slider has had the most positive results of runs saved per 100 pitches thrown.

As for the trade package, the White Sox in the draft are historically conservative. They favor the floor more than the ceiling so the Universal Trade Chip of Rudy Owens will work here. They are partial to toolsy outfielders, though, so Gorkys Hernandez may interest them. Diego Moreno with his live arm would fit nicely into their bullpen with Sergio Santos and Matt Thornton.

The Pirates need to upgrade the rotation and immediate help will not come from the farm before June 2011. Instead of hoping and wishing for the prospects to pan out, it's time for the Pirates to acquire known, successful commodities.

Offseason Trade Targets for Pitching (3 in a series) - Ricky Nolasco

Let's keep on trucking...we have already discussed James Shields and Scott Baker, so let's turn our attention to a slightly more volatile commodity in Ricky Nolasco.

The Marlins are always teetering on the edge of a fire sale, but last offseason's shot across the bow from the players' union about not properly spending revenue sharing forced them to raise payroll a little in 2010. The Marlins signed Josh Johnson to a big-money extension (4 yr - $39M through 2013) and already have Hanley Ramirez locked up through 2014. That's plenty of time for Hanley to keeping dogging it in the field and get a coach or two fired.

The Marlins are looking at $10M to keep Dan Uggla, if they tender him a contract of course. Once you add in their other committments and some estimated arb numbers and min wage numbers, you're looking at a $40M payroll without Nolasco, who will be entering arb-3 (he's a Super 2 so there will be an arb-4). Nolasco made $3.8M this year so a $5.8 to $6M contract in in the realm of possibility.

The other item to consider is that the Marlins farm system is drying up. A once fertile farm has started to go fallow, as Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller have been busts. Kyle Skipworth showed some signs of life this year, but not enough. Chad James from 2009's draft had a great debut, but he is years away still. Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison made their debuts this year.

The Marlins could trade Nolasco, rebuild the farm and re-load on the fly for 2011.

Ricky Nolasco 6-2/230 RHP, age 28 in 2011 season

Contract: $3.8M in 2010, going into arb-3 in 2011

I referred to Nolasco as "volatile" in the opening paragraph because unlike Shields and Baker, Nolasco is inconsistent but with better overall stuff than those two.

Nolasco throws a 91 mph fastball, an 84 mph slider, a 75 mph curveball, and a 85 mph splitter. Historically, both his slider and curve have been reliable out pitches that are above the run line.

The Marlins like boom or bust prospects and pitchers with some heat. As a result, I'm not going to use the Universal Trade Chip known as Rudy Owens in this scenario. Rather, I will sacrifice Jeff Locke, Diego Moreno, and Robbie Grossman to the Marlins.

A few folks on some other forums feel that what I'm offering in these trades is not enough, not even close. Here's what the Angels gave up for Dan Haren (signed thru 2012, with a club option in 2013), with the approximate Pirate equivalent in parentheses:

Joe Saunders (Zach Duke)

Tyler Skaggs (ZVR)

Patrick Corbin (Jeff Locke)

Rafael Rodgriguez (Steven Jackson)

Considering that Rodriguez is a total throw-in, these packages of 3 minor leaguers that I'm offering are the equivalent (or better since Saunders/Duke suck and are expensive) to the Haren package.

Offseason Trade Targets for Pitching (2 in a series) - Scott Baker

Continuing on in this series after I discussed James Shields, I would like to take a look at Scott Baker of the Minnesota Twins.

In 2011, the massive contract extension for Joe Mauer kicks in and takes his salary from $12.5M to $23M. The Twins also have Morneau ($15M), Joe Nathan ($11.25M) and Cuddyer ($10.5M) as big money contracts. As of now, the Twins have $72M in committments after having a payroll of $97M this year. And that doesn't include the following players either entering arbitration or in their arbitration years:

• Matt Capps (arb-3, $3.5M in 2010)
• Delmon Young (arb-2, $2.6M in 2010)
• Francisco Liriano (arb-2, $1.6M in 2010)
• Kevin Slowey (arb-1, $470K in 2010)

Plus there is a $5.25M club option for Jason Kubel.

In short, the Twins will be right up against the $100M threshold just trying to keep their existing players, let alone freeing up money for free agents. They may need to move a salary in order to find the extra cash and keep payroll flexibility. One of those players could be Scott Baker.

Scott Baker, 6-4/220, RHP, age-29 in 2011 season

Contract: $5M in 2011, $6.5M in 2012, $9.25M club option in 2013

In 2010, Baker has a 7.41 K/9, 2.13 BB/9, and a 36.6% ground ball rate, so he is a flyball pitcher. His arsenal consists of a 91 mph fastball, a 84 mph slider, and a 81 mph curve, with a 83 mph change sprinkled in. Historically, his slider has been his best out pitch.

The Twins may be the most conservative organization in baseball, especially when it comes to pitching. They value the "floor" of a prospect way more than "ceiling" and frequently select low to mid-upside college pitching early in the draft. Because of these tendencies, the Twins may find Rudy Owens very appealing in a potential trade package. Owens is pretty much assured of being able to pitch in the majors, but may not have more upside than a #3 or #4. But he will be cheap, which is a valuable commodity for the Twins in the near future.

As for the trade package, Owens, Evan Chambers, and Brian Friday may be enticing enough for the Twins to part with Baker.

Offseason Trade Targets for Pitching (1 in a series) - James Shields

It's pretty obvious that the Pirates need help in a lot of areas. You don't come by a 44-89 record by accident. And while the offense has been horrendous at times, you hope there is some natural progression from Tabata, Walker, Alvarez, and McCutchen.

If this season was good for anything, it was to embarass the ownership and front office into spending more money this offseason to hasten the rebuilding process. There are some nice pieces percolating on the farm, but the ones that may help in 2011 are not "wow" players. It is more likely that the Pirates try to improve a pitching staff that has been dreadful for the vast majority of the season.

But I'm not advocating the free agency route. For the most part, you are buying players moving into the decline phase of their careers and are expending large quantities of cash for declining assets. Rather, I'm suggesting that the Pirates take advantage of the decent number of teams who will be trying to shed payroll this offseason. Some teams are moving into rebuilding phases, but others are up against their own internal "salary caps".

One of those teams will be the Tampa Bay Rays. This year their payroll was at an all-time Opening Day high of $72.8M. Their owner has already said that they will reduce payroll this offseason, maybe into the $50M range.

The Pirates must act like a buzzard circling a kill and zero in on teams like these. And from the Rays, the target could very well be James Shields.

James Shields, 6'-4"/220 lbs, RHP, 29 during 2011 season

Contract - $4.25M in 2011, $7M option in 2012, $9M in 2013, $12M in 2014

Shields' arsenal is a 91 mph fastball, 86 mph cutter, 77 mph curve, and his killer pitch is his 83 mph changeup. His changeup has consistently been his best rated pitch through his career, rating at a +1.6 runs above average.

This year his K/9 is 8.46 (career high), his BB/9 is 2.21, but his HR/9 spiked to 1.52 -- well above his career average. He is also a flyball pitcher as his ground ball percentage is at 40.6% this year. But none of that should matter. He would instantly be the best Pirates' pitcher, especially getting the bump from the AL East to the NL Central.

The question would be "What would it take to get him?" Tampa Bay is notoriously tough to trade with, as Pirates fans may remember from the Jason Bay talks in 2008. But judging on the limited packages received for Dan Haren and Cliff Lee in 2010, I would say something with a Top 10 prospect, a Top 20 prospect, and a lower tier player may get it done.

Tampa has a pretty loaded system, especially with pitching, but you can never have enough cost-controlled pitching. Perhaps Rudy Owens, Quinton Miller, and Brock Holt may interest them. The most important thing to remember is that other teams are desperate to shed payroll and it is a buyer's market right now. Trades right now do not involve blue-chip prospects and young major leaguers. Recent deals are involving more quantity than quality, which the Pirates have.

This will be a very telling off-season for this front office. They have the payroll space to take on salary (especially if they non-tender Duke) and the type of prospects teams are always looking to stockpile.