Pirates' Salary Chart - The Pedro Years (Part 1)

One of the refrains you hear from the general public is that the Pirates don't spend enough on payroll. And to a large extent, they are correct. Obviously, there is a basic correlation between money and winning if you look at the records of recent playoff teams. However, every once in a while a Tampa Rays 2008 sneaks into the equation.

The Pirates' short and medium-term future is going to be defined by the success of one player -- Pedro Alvarez. The Pirates, rightly so, are going to game his service time by bringing him up in early June 2010. That way, this year is a "bonus" year and we will control his rights thru the end of the 2016 season.

The Pirates must do everything they can to try and win during this period, because with Scott Boras as a client, Alvarez will most likely be gone after that 2016 season.

With all of these pre-arb players, though, where will the Pirates spend money? This first post will look at Pedro's pre-arb years (the 2010 "freebie" season, and 2011-2013). Cot's Baseball Contracts was used as a starting point by looking at the salaries. Arb years are guesstimates based on recent similar players.

I assumed that most players would serve out their contracts, unless there was a key player ready to take their place. I did not assume anyone would resign after their current contract expired.

The payroll is virtually set for 2010, but it should still be shown as a starting point:
2010
Position Player Est. Salary
C Doumit $3,650,000
1B Clement $420,000
2B Iwamura $4,850,000
SS Cedeno $1,125,000
3B Laroche/Alvarez $2,500,000
LF Milledge $470,000
CF McCutchen $420,000
RF Jones $420,000

Bench Jaramillo $420,000
Bench Crosby $1,000,000
Bench Church $1,500,000
Bench Vazquez $2,125,000
Bench Young $420,000

SP Maholm $5,000,000
SP Duke $4,300,000
SP Ohlendorf $440,000
SP Morton $420,000
SP McCutchen $400,000

RP Dotel $3,250,000
RP Hanrahan $440,000
RP Meek $420,000
RP Donnelly $1,350,000
RP Carrasco $950,000
RP Lopez $775,000
RP Hart $420,000
Total $37,485,000


Here's 2011's potential salary committment:
Position Player Est. Salary
C Doumit $5,200,000
1B Jones $440,000
2B D'Arnaud $400,000
SS Cedeno $2,500,000
3B Alvarez $2,050,000
LF Milledge $1,500,000
CF McCutchen $440,000
RF Tabata $400,000

Bench Jaramillo $440,000
Bench Friday $400,000
Bench FA OF $1,500,000
Bench Clement $440,000
Bench Laroche $1,500,000

SP Maholm $6,250,000
SP Duke $6,500,000
SP Ohlendorf $2,000,000
SP Morton $440,000
SP Lincoln $420,000

RP Dotel $4,500,000
RP Hanrahan $1,200,000
RP Meek $440,000
RP Aguero $400,000
RP Uviedo $400,000
RP LHP $500,000
RP Hart $440,000
Total $40,700,000

Alvarez's salary from 2009-2012 is $2+M due to his bonus being spread out over those 4 years, plus he gets slightly higher than the min salary. As you can see, a lot of the slots can be filled with decent in-house options.

The key, though, is getting incrementally better. So if you have the chance to upgrade a position with a good free agent, but it cost (gasp!) money, the Nuttings need to do it. The salary number of $40.7M isn't that much higher than 2010...due to the low costs of key players.

2012
Position Player Est. Salary
C Sanchez $400,000
1B Jones $2,000,000
2B D'Arnaud $420,000
SS FA $4,000,000
3B Alvarez $2,200,000
LF Milledge $3,200,000
CF McCutchen $500,000
RF Tabata $420,000

Bench Jaramillo $1,000,000
Bench Friday $420,000
Bench Marte $400,000
Bench FA $2,000,000
Bench Laroche $3,000,000

SP FA $8,000,000
SP Ohlendorf $4,000,000
SP Morton $2,000,000
SP Lincoln $440,000
SP Locke $400,000

RP Hanrahan $2,500,000
RP Meek $1,000,000
RP Moreno $400,000
RP Aguero $420,000
RP Uviedo $420,000
RP Owens $400,000
RP Hart $800,000
Total $40,740,000

The payroll is virtually unchanged from 2011, due to Doumit coming off the books and Sanchez making the minimum. I did allocate for the Pirates to go get a SP for $8M and find a FA SS, as well, though.

During this exercise, I was very reticent to assume too many promotions from our minors. I made the cut off players that would start 2010 in A+ or higher. I would love to project ZVR or Cunningham or Cain, but they are still hazy question marks right now.

And in the final year of this post, 2013:
2013
Position Player Est. Salary
C Sanchez $420,000
1B Jones $4,500,000
2B D'Arnaud $440,000
SS FA $6,000,000
3B Alvarez $700,000
LF Marte $420,000
CF McCutchen $3,500,000
RF Tabata $440,000

Bench Jaramillo $2,000,000
Bench Friday $440,000
Bench FA OF $1,500,000
Bench FA INF $1,500,000
Bench FA OF $2,000,000

SP FA $8,000,000
SP Ohlendorf $6,000,000
SP Morton $4,000,000
SP Lincoln $2,000,000
SP Locke $420,000

RP Hanrahan $4,500,000
RP Meek $2,000,000
RP Moreno $420,000
RP Aguero $440,000
RP Uviedo $440,000
RP Owens $420,000
RP Hart $1,500,000
Total $54,000,000

OK, the payroll jumped up from just under $41M to $54M, due to our players starting to get more expensive like Cutch-22 hitting arb for the first time, and the natural progressions of some of the pitchers. Interestingly, Alvarez's salary "drops" to $700K, due to his bonus going away from the committment.

$54M may field a competitive team, but it will still not be enough to keep the general public from questioning the committment of the Nuttings. That will depend on how they fill these FA gaps that I have shown.

The next set of posts will show Pedro's arb years, which also coincide with McCutchen/Tabata/Lincoln's arb years, as well.

Where would you spend the money to upgrade?