Tuesday, August 17, 2010

The Kansas City Royals - now that's how a farm system performs

One of the main reasons I started this blog was to have some accountability for my statements. Too often on the Interwebs people make bold statements and then never go back to say "Uhh...yeah...my bad on that one."

Well, this post is me saying "Uhh...yeah...my bad on that one."

Back in January, I ranked all 30 farm systems based primarily on the Baseball America Top 10's. By and large I stand by those rankings, but there is one writeup that I would like to have back. For the Royals at #14 I wrote:

"Next to the Cubs, this is the farm system that I predict will be drastically over-rated pre-season and shown not to be ready for prime time at the end."
"They have a great collection of arms with Montgomery, Arguelles, Crow, Duffy, Melville, and Lamb but they need to be tested. Hosmer and Moustakas need to prove themselves as well."

Well, consider them proven. This is the number 1 farm system going into 2011 and it's not very close. Hosmer is over his hand and vision issues and has a 956 OPS at AA as a 20 year old, on the heels of a 974 OPS at A+. Moustakas scorched the earth at AA with a 1100 OPS as a 21 year old and is keeping his head above water at AAA. Wil Myers has emerged as an offensive force, if not exactly a defensive whiz at catcher. He is a 19 year old with ridiculously good plate discipline that put up a 908 OPS at Low A and a 990 OPS at High A to date.

As for the pitchers, Montgomery has been hurt for a good chunk of the year, but when healthy has shown his #1 or #2 potential as a 20 year old in AA. He has averaged a K/IP and allowed a .213 BAA. Crow and Melville have not been effective this year and Arguelles has been hurt all year. Danny Duffy went off the reservation for a while, but he is back and in his usual consistently effective form. John Lamb is close to jumping Mike Montgomery as the top pitcher in the organization, due to his lack of injury history, as he has put up gaudy numbers as a 19 year old that was recently promoted to AA. At A+, he had well over a K/IP and a .219 BAA.

All this plus they recently drafted Christian Colon, a well-regarded SS prospect. The future is exceedingly bright for the Royals. It's a future that I was very down on in January, but bullish on in August.

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