Monday, March 8, 2010

Pedro Alvarez v. Alex Gordon - something to give you pause

I've always felt that the Royals are the "doppleganger" to the Pirates in the American League. I've been reading lately about the frustrations that some fans are feeling regarding the heretofore unimpressive career of Alex Gordon, their "3B of the future" who was going to come in and anchor their lineup for a decade.

Now, he has broken his thumb and will miss the next 3-4 weeks. He has already missed time with a variety of injuries during his first 3 seasons.

Alex Gordon was seen as a sure-thing when he was drafted and during his 1 year in the minors that he annihilated. He was also said to be above-average defensively (something not said about Pedro).

Then I looked into the numerology of it and had to suppress a little dry heaving.....
Alex Gordon drafted 1-2 in 2005
Pedro drafted 1-2 in 2008

Alex Gordon's first season in minors --- .325/.427/.588 (1.016 OPS) with 29 HR/101 RBI
Pedro's first season (combined) --- .288/.378/.535 (914 OPS) with 27 HR/95 RBI

Alex Gordon born February 10
Pedro born February 6

Alex Gordon pre-debut rated 13th best by BA
Pedro pre-debut rated 12th best by BA

Alex Gordon after debut season rated 2nd best by BA
Pedro after debut rated 8th best by BA

By all accounts, although the stats are similar, Gordon had more hype going into his debut MLB season and better numbers to back him up. To date in the majors he has hit 37 HR TOTAL with a 746 OPS.

Just gave me a little pause as to what can happen to "sure-thing" prospects.

We sort of need Pedro to be better than that. It would, you know, help things a lot.

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