Dejan's Friday article

On Friday in the Post-Gazette, Dejan Kovacevic had an article about 10 things the Pirates can do in the 2nd half and beyond to improve. It was a well written article for the most part, but I found #4 to be intriguing in a sneaky way.

4. A payroll hike is promised.
It already is plenty clear that the Pirates' major-league payroll will go up in 2011, partly because it really cannot go much lower than the current $36 million, partly because they already have assured the MLB Players Association that it will, but mostly because Nutting has said it would in years to come.
There has been no indication from Nutting or Coonelly that they would announce their payroll for next year, but maybe this is the summer that will change and, perhaps, restore some trust with the fan base.
Management's longtime reasoning against announcing payroll in advance has been that it gives agents leverage in the offseason. But agents have direct links with the union, and agents tend to find these things out, anyway.

The reason why I say it is sneaky is that it absolutely is possible for the Pirates to have a lesser payroll next year. If Duke (est $6.2M in arbitration) and Doumit ($5+M in salary) are non-tendered or traded, their replacements will make significantly less. The Pirates have mostly 0-3 players making $400K to $440K...very few key guys will be arb-eligible. Sure, players such as Ross Ohlendorf will hit arb for the first time, but he won't command a huge increase.

So what Dejan has done is to put pressure on the front office and Bob Nutting, specifically, by using his pulpit in the media. He is setting the table for people to demand higher payrolls and revolt against another sub $40M payroll. "Dejan said the payroll will increase in 2011. It has to!"

And he buried it as the #4 item! Stroke of genius. I just wonder how much effect it has on this ownership group and front office. They are stunningly tone-deaf to the fans. Yes, it is a business. But it is a business based on entertainment for the customers. If this team were a Cirque du Soleil show, the clowns would be fat and chain smoking and the people on the high-wire act would have fallen and broken their necks.

I have had my problems with Dejan's writing in the past couple of years. Once his buddies Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez, and Nate McLouth were traded, his writing's tone changed. It became more questioning and skeptical of the front office's overall plan. Little barbs would leak out on his blog or on talk shows.

Perhaps all the losing has taken a toll on Dejan. If you are a Pirates fan, you can simply turn off the TV or not read about them for a few days. Dejan is with them nearly every day during the 6 month season. He can't avert his eyes from the train wreck on the field. Perhaps he also questions his decision to move from the Pens' beat writer and daydreams about covering this current mini-dynasty led by Crosby and Company.

Dejan is an excellent reporter. His work on the Dominican Republic facility and the process of signing Dominican kids last year was excellent. His coverage of Miguel Sano and the subsequent carnage after he was signed by the Twins away from the Pirates was top-notch.

He is an excellent writer. I just fear the Pirates are wearing him down.

So how much would a good team cost?

I'm a big believer in getting value out of something. I cringe when people call me thrifty...I prefer to think of it as being smart with my money. Me saving money on things throughout the week enables me to spend money on the weekend or fun vacations down the road (and even then I'm on the lookout for deals).

So what's this have to do with baseball? I'm getting to that.
The Pirates have the lowest payroll in MLB this year at around $39M. Most of that is because they are rebuilding with youth and those players don't cost a lot, especially their first 3 years.

But even with Cutch-22, Walker, Tabata, Lincoln, Meek, and soon Pedro up and making the minimum wage essentially, there are huge holes in this lineup. And not all those holes can be filled internally. It's time to look outside for either higher quality trade acquisitions or through free agency.

It got me to thinking....if I were a fan of team that actually um...spent money...how much money would you need in the payroll for a good team?

The numbers below are all first-cut numbers. I don't have any A-Rod's on this team for $25M. No matter how good he is, nobody is worth that over an extended period. There are also certain positions that I don't think you should spend a lot of money on (like catcher, for instance, due to wear and tear).

Also keep in mind that a good farm system should supply the major league team with 1 starter and 1 bench/bullpen guy each year. So you'll see in this example some guys in the 0-3 camp making minimum, and the guys who have progressed out of that to the arb camp (typically $2M - $6M as you go through arb). For the arb guys, I assumed an average salary of $4M, taking into account the 3 years of arb.

Catcher - $4M
1B - $12M
2B - $425K (0 to 3 guy)
SS - $5M
3B - $10M
LF - $10M
CF - $4M (Arb guy)
RF - $6M

Bench C - $600K
Bench IF - $2M
Bench IF - $425K (0 to 3 guy)
Bench OF - $1M
Bench OF - $2M

SP1 - $12M
SP2 - $8M
SP3 - $4M (Arb guy)
SP4 - $4M (Arb guy)
SP5 - $425K (0 to 3 guy)

CL - $5M
SET - $2M
SET - $2M
RP - $425K (0 to 3 guy)
RP - $700K
LP - $2M
LP - $425K (0 to 3 guy)

Total - $98M'ish

Last year in 2009, $98M would have put you in 12th place, right between the White Sox and the Braves. That's $5M ahead of the Cards, so you can see that all of those teams are real honest-to-goodness competitive teams.

You can see how far the Pirates still have to go. Kind of depressing, even on the precipice of Pedro coming up to the big team.

Pirates' Salary Chart - The Pedro Years (Part 2 - Arb Years)

When we left off the last post, we were at the end of 2013 and the payroll was $54M. This post will look at 2014-2016, the arbitration years of Pedro Alvarez and other key players (Cutch-22, Tabata, Lincoln, Ohlendorf, and others).

2014
Position Player Est. Salary
C Sanchez $440,000
1B Jones $7,000,000
2B D'Arnaud $1,500,000
SS FA $8,000,000
3B Alvarez $4,500,000
LF Marte $440,000
CF McCutchen $6,500,000
RF Tabata $2,000,000

Bench FA C $750,000
Bench Friday $1,000,000
Bench FA OF $2,000,000
Bench FA INF $1,500,000
Bench FA OF/Rookie $500,000

SP FA $10,000,000
SP Ohlendorf $8,000,000
SP Morton $6,000,000
SP Lincoln $4,000,000
SP Locke $440,000

RP Meek $3,500,000
RP Uviedo $1,000,000
RP Moreno $440,000
RP Aguero $1,000,000
RP FA/Rook $500,000
RP Owens $440,000
RP FA/Rook $500,000
Total $71,950,000

Wow...that escalated quickly. The jump from $54M to $72M shows that eventually, in order to keep the gang together, Nutting will have to spend more money. Will the masses understand that the team will be low-cost up until 2014, though?

2015
Position Player Est. Salary
C Sanchez $2,000,000
1B Jones $10,000,000
2B D'Arnaud $3,000,000
SS FA $8,000,000
3B Alvarez $7,500,000
LF Marte $2,000,000
CF McCutchen $10,500,000
RF Tabata $3,500,000

Bench FA C $750,000
Bench Friday $2,000,000
Bench FA OF $2,000,000
Bench FA INF $1,000,000
Bench FA OF/Rookie $500,000

SP FA $10,000,000
SP FA $8,000,000
SP Lincoln $7,000,000
SP Locke $1,500,000
SP FA/Rook $500,000

RP Uviedo $2,000,000
RP Owens $1,000,000
RP Moreno $1,000,000
RP Aguero $2,000,000
RP FA/Rook $500,000
RP FA/Rook $750,000
RP FA/Rook $500,000
Total $87,500,000

If spending $72M didn't curl Nutting's hair, spending $87.5M surely will. Don't look now, but this is a legitimate MLB payroll. Under my assumption that no one would stay past their current obligation, this is Garrett Jones and Cutch-22's last year. You can see that those two, plus Alvarez, are $28M themselves...underscoring the cost of keeping key people. I kind of used a Ryan Howard/Prince Fielder hybrid for an arbitration guess on Pedro, by the way.

2016
Position Player Est. Salary
C Sanchez $3,500,000
1B Alvarez $12,500,000
2B D'Arnaud $5,000,000
SS FA $5,000,000
3B FA $7,000,000
LF Marte $3,500,000
CF FA/Rook $1,000,000
RF Tabata $7,000,000

Bench FA C $750,000
Bench FA INF $1,000,000
Bench FA OF $2,000,000
Bench FA INF $1,000,000
Bench FA OF/Rookie $500,000

SP FA $10,000,000
SP FA $8,000,000
SP FA $7,000,000
SP Locke $3,000,000
SP FA/Rook $500,000

RP Uviedo $3,500,000
RP Owens $2,000,000
RP Moreno $2,000,000
RP FA/Rook $750,000
RP FA/Rook $500,000
RP FA/Rook $750,000
RP FA/Rook $500,000
Total $88,250,000

The payroll stayed relatively flat in Pedro's last year, as he moves over to 1B to take Jones' place. Cutch-22 has, sadly, departed and his $10.5M comes off the books to be re-distributed.

So there's a rough look at what it may take to keep the core of this "dynasty" together. Ultimately, the number is what people want the Pirates to be spending in 2010 and it took until 2014/2015 to get there.

But that's what having a good, productive farm can do for you. If you have a guy who can replicate a season of a veteran, but you can pay him the minimum, you trade the veteran. I always use the lava analogy...when magma comes up to the surface and becomes lava, it pushes aside the old dried up material to force its way through.

I would like to think that somewhere within the bowels of PNC Park, Dan Fox and his team have done something just like this already.

Feel free to add your thoughts in the comments....

Pirates' Salary Chart - The Pedro Years (Part 1)

One of the refrains you hear from the general public is that the Pirates don't spend enough on payroll. And to a large extent, they are correct. Obviously, there is a basic correlation between money and winning if you look at the records of recent playoff teams. However, every once in a while a Tampa Rays 2008 sneaks into the equation.

The Pirates' short and medium-term future is going to be defined by the success of one player -- Pedro Alvarez. The Pirates, rightly so, are going to game his service time by bringing him up in early June 2010. That way, this year is a "bonus" year and we will control his rights thru the end of the 2016 season.

The Pirates must do everything they can to try and win during this period, because with Scott Boras as a client, Alvarez will most likely be gone after that 2016 season.

With all of these pre-arb players, though, where will the Pirates spend money? This first post will look at Pedro's pre-arb years (the 2010 "freebie" season, and 2011-2013). Cot's Baseball Contracts was used as a starting point by looking at the salaries. Arb years are guesstimates based on recent similar players.

I assumed that most players would serve out their contracts, unless there was a key player ready to take their place. I did not assume anyone would resign after their current contract expired.

The payroll is virtually set for 2010, but it should still be shown as a starting point:
2010
Position Player Est. Salary
C Doumit $3,650,000
1B Clement $420,000
2B Iwamura $4,850,000
SS Cedeno $1,125,000
3B Laroche/Alvarez $2,500,000
LF Milledge $470,000
CF McCutchen $420,000
RF Jones $420,000

Bench Jaramillo $420,000
Bench Crosby $1,000,000
Bench Church $1,500,000
Bench Vazquez $2,125,000
Bench Young $420,000

SP Maholm $5,000,000
SP Duke $4,300,000
SP Ohlendorf $440,000
SP Morton $420,000
SP McCutchen $400,000

RP Dotel $3,250,000
RP Hanrahan $440,000
RP Meek $420,000
RP Donnelly $1,350,000
RP Carrasco $950,000
RP Lopez $775,000
RP Hart $420,000
Total $37,485,000


Here's 2011's potential salary committment:
Position Player Est. Salary
C Doumit $5,200,000
1B Jones $440,000
2B D'Arnaud $400,000
SS Cedeno $2,500,000
3B Alvarez $2,050,000
LF Milledge $1,500,000
CF McCutchen $440,000
RF Tabata $400,000

Bench Jaramillo $440,000
Bench Friday $400,000
Bench FA OF $1,500,000
Bench Clement $440,000
Bench Laroche $1,500,000

SP Maholm $6,250,000
SP Duke $6,500,000
SP Ohlendorf $2,000,000
SP Morton $440,000
SP Lincoln $420,000

RP Dotel $4,500,000
RP Hanrahan $1,200,000
RP Meek $440,000
RP Aguero $400,000
RP Uviedo $400,000
RP LHP $500,000
RP Hart $440,000
Total $40,700,000

Alvarez's salary from 2009-2012 is $2+M due to his bonus being spread out over those 4 years, plus he gets slightly higher than the min salary. As you can see, a lot of the slots can be filled with decent in-house options.

The key, though, is getting incrementally better. So if you have the chance to upgrade a position with a good free agent, but it cost (gasp!) money, the Nuttings need to do it. The salary number of $40.7M isn't that much higher than 2010...due to the low costs of key players.

2012
Position Player Est. Salary
C Sanchez $400,000
1B Jones $2,000,000
2B D'Arnaud $420,000
SS FA $4,000,000
3B Alvarez $2,200,000
LF Milledge $3,200,000
CF McCutchen $500,000
RF Tabata $420,000

Bench Jaramillo $1,000,000
Bench Friday $420,000
Bench Marte $400,000
Bench FA $2,000,000
Bench Laroche $3,000,000

SP FA $8,000,000
SP Ohlendorf $4,000,000
SP Morton $2,000,000
SP Lincoln $440,000
SP Locke $400,000

RP Hanrahan $2,500,000
RP Meek $1,000,000
RP Moreno $400,000
RP Aguero $420,000
RP Uviedo $420,000
RP Owens $400,000
RP Hart $800,000
Total $40,740,000

The payroll is virtually unchanged from 2011, due to Doumit coming off the books and Sanchez making the minimum. I did allocate for the Pirates to go get a SP for $8M and find a FA SS, as well, though.

During this exercise, I was very reticent to assume too many promotions from our minors. I made the cut off players that would start 2010 in A+ or higher. I would love to project ZVR or Cunningham or Cain, but they are still hazy question marks right now.

And in the final year of this post, 2013:
2013
Position Player Est. Salary
C Sanchez $420,000
1B Jones $4,500,000
2B D'Arnaud $440,000
SS FA $6,000,000
3B Alvarez $700,000
LF Marte $420,000
CF McCutchen $3,500,000
RF Tabata $440,000

Bench Jaramillo $2,000,000
Bench Friday $440,000
Bench FA OF $1,500,000
Bench FA INF $1,500,000
Bench FA OF $2,000,000

SP FA $8,000,000
SP Ohlendorf $6,000,000
SP Morton $4,000,000
SP Lincoln $2,000,000
SP Locke $420,000

RP Hanrahan $4,500,000
RP Meek $2,000,000
RP Moreno $420,000
RP Aguero $440,000
RP Uviedo $440,000
RP Owens $420,000
RP Hart $1,500,000
Total $54,000,000

OK, the payroll jumped up from just under $41M to $54M, due to our players starting to get more expensive like Cutch-22 hitting arb for the first time, and the natural progressions of some of the pitchers. Interestingly, Alvarez's salary "drops" to $700K, due to his bonus going away from the committment.

$54M may field a competitive team, but it will still not be enough to keep the general public from questioning the committment of the Nuttings. That will depend on how they fill these FA gaps that I have shown.

The next set of posts will show Pedro's arb years, which also coincide with McCutchen/Tabata/Lincoln's arb years, as well.

Where would you spend the money to upgrade?