What If Andrew McCutchen was drafted by the Rays?

It's hard to believe that the Rays were at one time not The Little Franchise that could, but you have to go alllllll the way back to the year 2005 to find when they were still flailing away. At that time in 2005, they were in the midst of the final death throes of the GM Chuck LaMar/Owner Vince Namoli era.

It was June 2005 and the annual draft was upon the "Devil" Rays. The Rays were in their customary spot of picking in the Top 10 of the draft, this time in the 8th slot. There was a great amount of internal debate within the Devil Rays' front office on who to take with their first round pick. There was a faction in the front office that wanted to take Florida high school star Andrew McCutchen, but there was a larger more vocal faction that wanted to get a college player to help the team much sooner (read: try and save their jobs). If anything of these first two paragraphs sound hauntingly familiar to you, just flash forward two years to the summer of 2007 when the Pirates went "safe" and picked Danny Moskos in the draft. It's no coincidence that LaMar and Littlefield were both considered two of the worst GM's in modern years.

I thought it might be interesting to contemplate how Andrew McCutchen's career may have been different had that minority faction in the Devil Rays' front office won out.

Let's assume that McCutchen signs with the Devil Rays and at the slot amount, just as he did with the Pirates. He would probably have been assigned to Princeton of the Applachian League, as the Devil Rays don't have a Gulf/Arizona League team for HS players. The Rays are notorious for going slow with their young pitchers, but not as much with their hitters, so in 2006 let's say that McCutchen would have been assigned to the Southwest Michigan Whitecaps in the Low A Midwest League. The Midwest League is a much tougher hitting environment, especially in the early part of the year due to cold conditions, but it is safe to assume that McCutchen would still have done well.

In 2007, McCutchen would have been promoted to Vero Beach in the Florida State League. The FSL is considered to be a pitcher's league, due to the oppressive heat and humidity in the summer, plus some expansive outfields at certain parks. The Pirates aggressively promoted McCutchen to Double A Altoona Curve in 2007, but the Devil Rays would probably have taken it one rung at a time with him.

2008 would have seen McCutchen promoted to the Montgomery Biscuits in the Southern League, which skews towards a hitters league. It is easy to envision the 21 year old McCutchen doing quite well in this league. Continuing with the one level at a time theory, McCutchen would have gone to the Durham Bulls in 2009 as a 22 year old in the International League. The Devil Rays are very cost conscious and like to control their assets more than any team in the league, so it is not hard to imagine McCutchen spending all of 2009 in the IL.

What would have happened in 2010, though? At the major league level, BJ Upton was firmly entrenched in CF for the now-Rays. Carl Crawford was ensconced in LF, but would soon be leaving the Rays for free agency at the end of the year. Ben Zobrist was coming off of a huge breakout year in 2009, even though his 2010 was a down year, but he wasn't going anywhere in RF.

If the Rays were out of playoff contention, it would be conceivable that they could have traded Crawford mid-season to recoup some value in prospects. However, the Rays made a playoff push in 2010. As a result of the playoff run, plus the presence of three solid options, it seems as if McCutchen could have spent a 2nd full season in AAA.

McCutchen may not have made his major league debut until the start of the 2011 season (as a 24 year old), replacing Crawford in LF, as Upton is considered to be a high quality CF. This past season may have been McCutchen's rookie season if he were a member of the Rays, not his 3rd overall season and 2nd full season like it was with the Pirates.

As we have seen with Evan Longoria, Wade Davis, and recently Matt Moore, the Rays are not shy about locking up young talent early on in the process. The Pirates are trying to do that right now, but McCutchen may have concerns about the future of the Pirates. That may not be the case with the Rays, as they have been quite successful in recent years.

As difficult as it would be to imagine McCutchen in any other uniform, it is possible that he would have had a slower yet ultimately more rewarding career, in terms of both team success and short-term financial success, if the "Devil" Rays had made a different decision in that draft room in 2005.

Offseason Trade Targets for Pitching (1 in a series) - James Shields

It's pretty obvious that the Pirates need help in a lot of areas. You don't come by a 44-89 record by accident. And while the offense has been horrendous at times, you hope there is some natural progression from Tabata, Walker, Alvarez, and McCutchen.

If this season was good for anything, it was to embarass the ownership and front office into spending more money this offseason to hasten the rebuilding process. There are some nice pieces percolating on the farm, but the ones that may help in 2011 are not "wow" players. It is more likely that the Pirates try to improve a pitching staff that has been dreadful for the vast majority of the season.

But I'm not advocating the free agency route. For the most part, you are buying players moving into the decline phase of their careers and are expending large quantities of cash for declining assets. Rather, I'm suggesting that the Pirates take advantage of the decent number of teams who will be trying to shed payroll this offseason. Some teams are moving into rebuilding phases, but others are up against their own internal "salary caps".

One of those teams will be the Tampa Bay Rays. This year their payroll was at an all-time Opening Day high of $72.8M. Their owner has already said that they will reduce payroll this offseason, maybe into the $50M range.

The Pirates must act like a buzzard circling a kill and zero in on teams like these. And from the Rays, the target could very well be James Shields.

James Shields, 6'-4"/220 lbs, RHP, 29 during 2011 season

Contract - $4.25M in 2011, $7M option in 2012, $9M in 2013, $12M in 2014

Shields' arsenal is a 91 mph fastball, 86 mph cutter, 77 mph curve, and his killer pitch is his 83 mph changeup. His changeup has consistently been his best rated pitch through his career, rating at a +1.6 runs above average.

This year his K/9 is 8.46 (career high), his BB/9 is 2.21, but his HR/9 spiked to 1.52 -- well above his career average. He is also a flyball pitcher as his ground ball percentage is at 40.6% this year. But none of that should matter. He would instantly be the best Pirates' pitcher, especially getting the bump from the AL East to the NL Central.

The question would be "What would it take to get him?" Tampa Bay is notoriously tough to trade with, as Pirates fans may remember from the Jason Bay talks in 2008. But judging on the limited packages received for Dan Haren and Cliff Lee in 2010, I would say something with a Top 10 prospect, a Top 20 prospect, and a lower tier player may get it done.

Tampa has a pretty loaded system, especially with pitching, but you can never have enough cost-controlled pitching. Perhaps Rudy Owens, Quinton Miller, and Brock Holt may interest them. The most important thing to remember is that other teams are desperate to shed payroll and it is a buyer's market right now. Trades right now do not involve blue-chip prospects and young major leaguers. Recent deals are involving more quantity than quality, which the Pirates have.

This will be a very telling off-season for this front office. They have the payroll space to take on salary (especially if they non-tender Duke) and the type of prospects teams are always looking to stockpile.

Tampa Bay v. Pittsburgh 1-1 and 1-2 -- are we even now?

Pedro Alvarez debuted last night for the Pirates, just two years after being drafted in the first round, second overall (1-2). That year in 2008, the Tampa Bay Rays were drafting 1-1 (hard to imagine they sucked that bad just 3 years ago, huh?) and selected Tim Beckham, a high school SS.

Now in 2008, Tampa was in the midst of one of the all-time turnaround seasons. They finished with the worst record in 2007, which allowed them to draft 1-1, but in 2008 they were leading their division and on the way to their first ever playoff series.

They were buoyed by a fantastic pitching staff, with a plethora of arms in the minors making their way through the system (Price, Davis, McGee, and Hellickson). They had a resurgent Carlos Pena, a developing BJ Upton, budding superstar Evan Longoria, and the always dependable Carl Crawford. Not only were they on their way to a run in 2008, it seemed as if their window was going to be open for a couple of years before they had to be concerned about payroll.

Pedro Alvarez would have been the perfect selection. As college hitters they could have been up in 1-2 years, perfect to hit the contention window.

But Tampa blinked...and selected Beckham. A few weeks ago, I said that the Pirates should have selected Pomeranz in order to maximize the window of opportunity we have with Cutch-22 and Alvarez. This is another example of how a team dropped the ball by not matching the development timelines. A high school SS, if he sticks at the position, is going to need 3 years at a minimum and more likely 4, if not 5 to get to the majors. By that time in 2011-2013, Tampa risked losing Pena, Crawford, and some of their pitching to payroll concerns or free agency.

Today Alvarez is with the Pirates and Beckham is struggling in High A. As of this writing, he's hitting .219/.309/.375 (684 OPS) with a 12.5% BB rate and 30% K rate. He is also said to be developing a thick lower half that will proclude him from playing SS long-term. So where will that bat play?

This made me reflect back to 2002 when the draft order was reversed. The Pirates were drafting 1-1 and Tampa was 1-2. BJ Upton was considered to be the top player in the draft (similar to Alvarez in 2008) but the Pirates panicked and went "safe" with Brian Bullington. At his press conference to introduce him, Littlefield announced that Bullington projected to be a good #3 starter. I almost fell out of my chair. We just used the top overall pick on a POSSIBLE mid-rotation starter?!?

Well, as most of you know, Bullington was an epic bust. Upton has had an up and down career and had to shift to CF from his original SS position, but he has had some success (way more than Bullington, obviously).

So I was wondering...with Beckham not really lighting it up and having more bust than boom potential at this point, are we now "even steven" with Tampa in terms of blowing 1-1 picks with each other?