In-Person Account Of Jameson Taillon

I took a vacation day on Thursday and drove up to Altoona with my friend Stevie Numbers to take in the 10:30 a.m. Altoona Curve game. We talked about doing it during our dinner out this past weekend.  The reason for our visit was a certain 6’-6” pitcher named Jameson Taillon.

For those of you that live in Pittsburgh, the drive to Altoona has dramatically improved thanks to the seemingly never-ending construction efforts on 22 East.  Steve and I met up in Monroeville and it was a quick 90 minutes from there.  Unless I hit a wormhole or accidentally tripped the flux capacitor.  

We got to the park at about 10:15 and got in line for tickets.  We were able to sit directly behind home plate in the 2nd row for the price of just $12.  The park has been open since 1999, but it is still in immaculate condition.  It’s well worth a trip for a Pittsburgher to check out. Our weather today was absolutely perfect around 75 degrees with bright sunshine.

Taillon had a rough 1st inning, giving up 2 runs and 5 hits in the inning, but he certainly wasn’t helped out by his defense.  Alex Dickerson, nominally the right fielder today, made every fly ball and adventure.  He definitely allowed a double to become a triple with a poor route and he got turned around twice on another double.  He and Jarek Cunningham then failed to communicate on a shallow popup and that error resulted in a 3rd run to score against Taillon.

The Altoona radar gun is notoriously slow, usually by 2 to 3 mph, but today we were sitting by some scouts who were saying it was 4 to 5 mph different than their guns.  Using that metric, here were Taillon’s pitch speeds (they stayed consistent over his 6 innings):

4 seam fastball -- 94-96, touched 98

2 seam fastball -- 92-93

curve -- 82-83

changeup -- 84-85

Taillon’s overall line may seem just solid at first glance (6 ip, 7 hits, 2 er, 1 bb, 6 k), but he was only hit consistently when he elevated his 4 seam fastball.  When he was down in the zone with it, he got weak contact.  His curve ball was especially filthy today, but he didn’t feature it too much.  Primarily he was working on the 2 seam fastball and keeping it down, down, down in the zone.

Taillon’s speed stayed consistent through his outing.  His three-quarter arm slot was repeatable for all of his pitches and he didn’t tip his pitches by having different arm speeds or slots.  His best inning was probably the 5th as he seemed to pitch with aggression and purpose.

Here’s a portion of a video of his work against the Akron Aeros’ catcher Roberto Perez.  In this 3 pitch at-bat, he starts off with a 96 mph 4 seam fastball, a 93 mph 2 seam fastball, and then finishes him (after the ump breaks his concentration mid-windup) with a filthy 82 mph curve.

After watching Taillon today and tracking him through his career, I feel comfortable that he will be a successful major league pitcher.  He could probably muddle his way through the bigs right now as the Pirates’ 5th starter, but would be prone to ugly outing when he elevates his pitches.  I don’t think he will be a pure #1 ace, but rather a strong #2 pitcher.  The pitcher he reminds me more and more of is A.J. Burnett, which would be a fantastic result for him.  There is no shame in Taillon replicating Burnett’s career.  If Gerrit Cole can become that true ace (or even a very strong #2 himself), the Pirates will be far ahead of the curve.

As for the rest of the Curve....yeesh. Especially regarding the hitters. Adalberto Santos had 2 of the 3 hits today and stole a base. That's about all the highlights. I think Santos can make the majors as a 25th man/pinch hitter/runner type of guy. Not so much for the other members of the Curve.

Matt Curry and Alex Dickerson, nominally the #1 and #2 1B prospects in the system, looked clueless at the plate. Dickerson looks totally overmatched and is easily fooled by anything low. Curry has historically been able to draw a walk and work the count, but that has totally eroded this year. I can see why Mel Rojas is so frustrating, because he oozes tools and looks like a player, but at the plate he is constantly guessing at the next pitch. Gift Ngeope, a great human interest story and good on defense, can't hit AA pitching. Jarek Cunningham has stalled out as well.

Now I want to check out pitcher Stolmy Pimentel, he of the 0.30 ERA and the key prospect in the Joel Hanrahan trade, perhaps when the Curve come to Akron. Or go back out to Altoona, I suppose. It's a much better drive now.

DBS Top 30 Prospects 2013 - #25 to #21

Let's keep rolling along after the first edition of this series was met with wide regard.

#25 Tyler Glasnow, RHP (19), SS/A -- Glasnow is a gigantor, standing 6'-7" and possessing a high-90's fastball already.  Chronologically, Glasnow is only a few months older than Luis Heredia, but he ranks lower than Heredia due to Glasnow being a little less refined and playing all of 2012 in the GCL.  His stats were fantastic in the GCL, as he pitched 34 innings and allowed only 19 hits while striking out 40 and walking 16. The walks are a touch troublesome, but it really is a small sample.  In short, if Glasnow joins Heredia at West Virginia next year and continues to refine his arsenal, he could be a hard charger next year.

#24 Willy Garcia, OF (20), A+ -- Garcia had the misfortune of playing on the same team in 2012 as two of minor league baseball's breakout stars, in Gregory Polanco and Alen Hansen.  Garcia showed a great deal of home run power (18), but his swing-and-miss (131 K's versus only 32 walks in 459 at-bats) and low average of .240 takes some of the shine off.  His overall line of .240/.286/.403 (689 OPS) reminds me a touch of Rogelios Noris from a few years back, but Garcia's tools are much louder than Noris's tools ever were.  Garcia still has youth on his side and plenty of time to prove himself.

#23 Adalberto Santos, OF (25), AAA -- Santos had a breakout year at the plate, albeit one interrupted by some injures, posting a .340/.425/.433 line at AA.  However, like Brock Holt in the previous set, Santos isn't really much of a factor defensively and does not have much power.  He did have a fair steal rate in 2012, so perhaps the 22nd round pick can make it in 2013 to The Show as a bench OF bat at some point.

#22 Vic Black, RHP (25), AAA -- Black was a 2009 supplemental pick for the Pirates being unable to sign Tanner Scheppers the previous year.  Black's progress has been slowed by injuries and a somewhat silly attempt to use him as a starter instead of fast-tracking him as a reliever.  Black has high 90's heat and a plus slider, but his control is lacking at times.  His 2012 was fantastic with 60 IP, 40 hits allowed, 29 walks, and 85 strikeouts.  Black's upside is most likely that of a setup man and if all goes well, he could see Pittsburgh at the end of 2013.

#21 Wyatt Mathisen, C (19), SS/A -- Mathisen is a rare bird in the Pirates' system -- a high school catcher drafted out of the U.S.  Joey Schoenfeld was the only other catcher so taken under Huntington, but he never amounted to anything.  Mathisen is a very athletic player and represents the Pirates best chance to develop a two-way catcher in the mold of Buster Posey.  Mathisen ranks at this point due his long road ahead of him, plus the odds of a high school catcher making the Majors is slim due to attrition.  Mathisen's placement and performance in 2013 will be interesting to follow.

The Next Big Thing - Clay Holmes

Every season in the minors has surprises and disappointments.  This season is no different -- Alen Hanson and Gregory Polanco are among the huge surprises, but one of the less-heralded surprises has been Clay Holmes at State College.

Holmes was a 9th round draft pick in 2011 and received a $1.2M signing bonus.  Holmes was assigned to State College for 2012, as is the case for most Pirates high school pitching draft picks in their first true professional season.  The 6'-5", 230 lb Holmes has put himself on the map after his first 9 professional starts in short-season.  Through 43 innings, Holmes has allowed only 19 hits and struck out 30 while walking 20 (a touch too high).  His ERA is a microscopic 0.83.  Holmes has allowed an earned run in only 2 of his 9 starts, with one outing having 1 run and the other outing allowing 4 runs.  Those 5 ER are the totality of the runs Holmes has allowed in 2012.

Holmes throws a fastball that ranges from 90-94 mph with the makings of a decent curve and changeup.  For 2013, Holmes will most assuredly move up to full season West Virginia and probably be on a 110-120 inning limit.  With Rudy Owens, Colton Cain, and Robbie Grossman traded to Houston and Starling Marte on the verge of losing prospect eligibility, there is a lot of room for advancement up the prospect lists for Holmes this offseason.

The one caveat to this Holmes love fest is the memory of Nick Kingham from 2011 to 2012.  In 2011, Kingham also dominated the New York Penn League to the tune of a 2.15 ERA over 71 IP.  This year has been a struggle for Kingham, although he has been much better lately, but overall Kingham has a 4.74 ERA in 106 IP (although he does have 98 K's, which is a good ratio especially since he's only allowed only 32 BB).

Holmes will be comfortably in my Top 10 when I start putting that up on the site in November.  All eyes will be on West Virginia next year when Holmes and Heredia make their presence known.