Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Here's Why Polanco is Not in Pittsburgh Yet


RF Travis Snider is hitting .211 with a 623 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage).
Platoon mate RF Jose Tabata is hitting .247 with a 605 OPS.  Every other ball seems to be a grounder to shortstop.
In Triple A Indianapolis, uber-prospect RF Gregory Polanco is hitting .395 with a 1057 OPS.  He has power (4 HR) and speed (7 SB), two things that Tabata is not showing and one thing that Snider (the speed) does not have.  By all accounts, he would be an upgrade over these two.  The added bonus is that he has no platoon splits (979 OPS v. LHP, 1092 OPS v. RHP).  So why isn't he up in Pittsburgh yet?
Let's take a look at some of the reasons, of varying degrees of legitimacy, why Polanco is not in Pittsburgh:
A spot would need to be cleared on the 25-man roster.  I find it hard to believe the Pirates would carry five outfielders, especially without the need for a platoon partner for Polanco, so that means that one of either Tabata or Snider would have to go.  I know what most of you are saying -- "OK.  Don't let the door hit your rear end on the way out," but it's not that easy.  The Pirates do not have options remaining on either Tabata or Snider, so they would have to Designate For Assignment (DFA) one of them.  If one of them were claimed during this 10-day waiver period, the Pirates would lose that player for nothing.
To the Pirates, that is a terrible offense.  They like to squeeze every last bit of value out of a player, so you can be assured that Neal Huntington is feverishly working the phones trying to trade one of them, even if it is for a low-level reliever.  A trade could be worked out during the 10-day DFA window, but those are not as common.  Because of Jose Tabata's long-term guaranteed contract ($3.1M in 2014, $4.1M in 2015, $4.6M in 2016) he seems very unlikely to be traded unless the Pirates ate a bunch of that money.  That means Snider and his $1.2M in 2014 is the better candidate.  Snider has two more years of control after this, but a team could non-tender him at the end of 2014 and not cost themselves any additional money.  There are plenty of teams out there with awful outfielders that might be interested in a flyer on Snider or Tabata.
He hasn't experienced any adversity yet.  This one always irks me, but the reasoning is that the Pirates need to see how a player responds to a rough patch.  They would rather see him work through a 1 for 32 stretch in Indy than in Pittsburgh against the best pitchers in the world.  This answer is part of the mythological "player checklist" that every team says a player has to complete before getting promoted.
The Pirates want to avoid the Super 2 Deadline.  And now we come to our portion of the program that really matters.  Essentially, if a player gets into the top 17% of service time for players in his service time class between 2 years and 3 years of service, he gets to go to arbitration four times instead of three.  This can mean an additional cost of $10-$15M of salary for a team over that time period.
This is a real, tangible thing for a team.  Not just the Pirates, either.  Many teams are wary of their top prospects getting to Super 2 status.  The rough threshold to promote is with 130 days left in the season (this year there are 181 days).  That outer threshold is around May 21st.  However, most years the threshold falls into the 118-125 range, so allow for a couple of extra weeks to be safe.  That puts the date around June 3rd.
It will be interesting to see how many top prospects around the league magically "complete their checklists" and are ready to be promoted in early to mid-June.  It's amazing how many of the top guys are always ready around the same time of the year.
When Polanco does get promoted, he can't be expected to be a miracle worker or savior.  Just because he's ripping the cover off the ball in Triple A does not mean that will translate to the Majors.  The class of competition is dramatically better.  I do think he will be an improvement over what the Pirates have in RF now, but where I expect the greatest improvement to occur is in the leadoff spot.
Polanco has greater plate discipline than Starling Marte or any of the other players the Pirates have penciled in to the spot so far this year.  Right now, the aggregate leadoff hitters are triple slashing .222 BA/.290 OBP/.310 SLG (600 OPS) with 1 HR and 7 SB's.  Polanco, even if he struggles out of the gate, should be able to exceed that very low bar that has been set.
Gregory Polanco will get here, probably within the next month, so be patient.  Once he gets here, he's not going anywhere for a long time.

Sunday, May 4, 2014

Pasta with Creamy Garlic Sauce and Langostinos



Yesterday was a Strip District kind of day, so DB~ asked if we could make a run.  We got down there at high noon exactly, so after looking for a free spot in vain on Penn Avenue, we parked in that huge lot behind the warehouses for $6.  Aside from our usual fun of "eat the street", which yesterday consisted of egg rolls, Reyna's tacos, and a peanut butter/chocolate crepe, we were on the hunt for a different dinner.

As it usually does, our journey took us into Wholey's.  When I was a kid, I hated Wholey's.  My dad tells me that a fishmonger handed me a fish, as if it were a lollipop, and I got freaked out.  It always smelled bad (which it kind of still does).  But back then, it was just a fish market.  Now they've made it a fun destination with a sushi bar, market for groceries, and plenty of free samples of lobster crab bisque.  There are always tons of kids in there now.

This time langostinos caught our eye.  I've always thought of them as faux-lobsters, but as DB~ researched they are more akin to hermit crabs.  We got an 8 oz. frozen box of them for $8.99.  DB~ had the excellent idea to serve them over pasta, so my mind went to a garlic-infused cream sauce.  After we got a couple of other things at Wholey's, we made our way to Penn Mac.

At Penn Mac, we didn't even dally at the cheese counter and see ol' Dearheart.  We went straight for the fresh pasta stand.  Although not as good or as many choices as Ohio Pasta at the West End Market in Cleveland, they still had probably a dozen selections.  We went with the Rosemary Linguini.  DB~ selected a tiny loaf of bread, as well.  Two bundles of fresh pasta and a mini loaf of bread?  That will be $3.76, please.

When it was time for dinner, I put two cups of heavy cream into a large skillet and put it on medium heat.  I diced up three cloves of garlic, sprinkled in some black pepper, and a sundried tomato seasoning.  Once it started to simmer and bubble, I turned it down to medium-low.  The langostinos needed to thaw for 10 minutes in cold water and then be patted dry.  After sampling the sauce, I added the juice from half of a lemon to it.  It gave the sauce a nice finish after the garlic led the way.

Fresh pasta only takes a couple of minutes to cook, so I got the water going and dropped it in.  I added the langostinos and let them get to know the sauce for about five minutes.  Once the pasta was drained, I spooned on the sauce and combined it very well.  I served this with some roasted eggplant and the bread.

It was surprisingly good and "restaurant quality" as we both agreed.  Hermit crab, fake lobster, whatever...langostinos are a good substitute.

Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Lemon Basil Ricotta Stuffed Shells



We have a really nice system worked out for dinner preparation between DB~ and I, as I've mentioned a few times.  She finds an interesting recipe online (primarily through Pinterest) and I make it.  Pretty simple.

Last week, DB~ found two really good ones and we tried them out.  The first was for Lemon Basil Ricotta Stuffed Shells.  The recipe is pretty much just as it sounds, so I could theoretically just end this post here, but I'll expound for you my loyal reader(s).

I salted a pot of water and brought it to a boil.  Once it was at a roil, I added 10 large shells to the water for 12 minutes.  They need to be big in order for them to be properly stuffed later on.

While that was going, I spooned out approximately 1/2 cup of low fat ricotta cheese into a bowl.  To that, I added some chopped basil.  I took 1/2 of a lemon and squeezed its juice into the bowl (watch out to not add seeds) and then zested the skin of that part of the lemon in for more flavor.

I stirred that together and that was that.  When the shells were cooked and drained, I stuffed each of them with a portion of the mixture and put them in a 8 x 8 baking dish into a 375 degree oven for 20 minutes.

DB~ isn't a huge red sauce girl, plus I think red sauce would smother the delicate taste of lemon.  I made a butter and parmesean sauce that I spooned over the shells when they were done baking.  I roasted some red pepper strips in the oven at the same time as the shells were baking, as well.

This was a relatively easy dish to make, especially as a mid-week dish, and one that will make our list of recipes that we keep hanging on the side of the fridge.

Sunday, April 20, 2014

Tenpenny

Last Saturday, DB~ and I wanted to try someplace new for dinner.  Like yesterday, the Saturday of a week ago was full of sunshine.  DB~ made reservations at Tenpenny downtown at the intersection of, through no coincidence, Tenth and Penn.

Tenpenny is located directly across the street from the Westin and diagonal from the Convention Center, so I imagine at times it is packed in here.  In fact, we had to eat at 5:15 or else our other option was 9:15.

When we walked in to Tenpenny, we were greeted by a pleasant cross breeze.  As a result of being on a corner, Tenpenny put in two walls of floor to ceiling windows.  On this day, they were all open and allowing some circulation.  The interior of Tenpenny is striking, as it's fashioned with wooden beams and posts and a nouveau-rustic appearance.  Our server, a very affable guy named Barton, told us that the site was originally (many moons ago) a general store named Pickering's.  The way they had all the foodstuffs arranged throughout the dining room was to both simulate the general store and display some of the things they cook with.

Tenpenny also has a whole array of light bulbs hanging down from the ceiling.  At night, it's probably a very interesting look.  The whole place showed it was part of the new breed of restaurants where the interior design is just as vital as the food on the menu.

Tenpenny is the kind of place where you can come in for an appetizer and beer at the bar or have a full dinner in the dining area.  We kind of went with a hybrid of this concept.  We were told ahead of time to get the Mega Meatball.  It was...a giant meatball...but quite good.



DB~ went with two appetizers.  The first was the Truffled Mac 'n Cheese with three different types of cheeses (goat, cheddar, and gouda) melted over a twisty pasta.  It was good, but not the best ever (that might be the mac and cheese at Willow).



She also got an order of Crispy Brussel Sprouts, which is definitely large enough for 2 or 3 people to share.  The sprouts were the star of the evening.  They were cut up into small leaves, with their hard cores discarded, then flash-fried for a few seconds.  There was an excellent sauce drizzled over them made of a reduced Jack Daniels and balsamic glaze.  Some bacon and blue cheese were sprinkled over them as well.  If you don't like brussel sprouts normally, try these.  If you still don't like them, you can safely cross them off your list.



I played it safe, which made me disappointed in myself.  I went with a Braised Beef Cheek Ragout over papardelle pasta.  The dish itself was excellent, but too safe for me.



The part that quasi-annoyed us is that when we left at about 6:30 or so, there were plenty of tables seemingly available.  I know there is a function of how many servers are scheduled, too, but there were many tables in just the main seating areas that were sitting empty.  A minor complaint for an excellent dinner.

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Gaby et Jules -- who knew there were this many Frenchies in Pittsburgh?

DB~ and I are devotees of Jean-Marc Chatelier's bakery in Millvale.  His macarons are divine, his cakes are works of art, and his pastries are impossible to pass up.  A few years back, a French bakery opened up in Lawrenceville named La Gourmandine.  We've never even been there because...why would we?

In the past few months, a new French bakery opened in Squirrel Hill called Gaby et Jules.  When DB~ and I were out in Squirrel Hill in the summer, they were just getting ready to open.  It looked sleek and non-bakery-y.  It kind of reminded us a little of the valhalla of bakeries that we went to in Paris, Laduree.  Or a little like Sucre in New Orleans that we also went to.  Man...when you put it all in one post, we really like going to bakeries.

We haven't been to Gaby et Jules yet, but my parents went on Monday and were raving about it.  They bought two desserts for DB~ and I to try.  I imagine that it greatly cut into my potential inheritance to buy them.  But man...just look at these.


The presentation is better than Jean-Marc, but I think the taste still resides in Millvale with Jean-Marc Chatelier.  The chocolate rose on the right had a peanut butter creme, which delighted DB~ to no end.  I'm not entirely sure what the one on the left was, but it had a slight taste of alcohol in the creme to it.  I'd like to go there and check it out for ourselves sometimes, maybe check out their macarons, too.



Saturday, April 12, 2014

Bistro 9101

Have you ever been to a restaurant and then it closes...and then a new one comes in, it's pretty good, and then it closes?  Location, location, location always applies, but it seems like some spaces are just cursed.

That seems to be the reasoning for the restaurant at the intersection of Perry Highway (Route 19) and Cumberland.  It's a very well-traveled area, but it seems like restaurants can never stay open.  The previous incarnation was a great neighborhood place called Ziggy's that DB~ and I liked very much.  It had a beer cheese soup that was so good we wanted to take a bath in it.

But it closed (like Magoo's before it and some others I can't remember) and now in its place is Bistro 9101 -- referring to the street address on Perry Highway.  We stopped in last night to check this scene out for ourselves, as it's been open since early February.

The interior hasn't changed much, but we did like the simple paper tablecloths that were then hand-stamped with "Bistro 9101" twice by the busboys as each table was changed.  It seemed labor-intensive; you would think it would be easier to have a bunch pre-cut (they were cut by a giant paper cutter each time) and stamped and laying in a corner somewhere, but whatever.

DB~ went with a fish dish in observance of meatless Friday, so she chose two appetizers as her meal.  One was the French Onion Soup, as DB~ is like a moth to a flame with French Onion Soup.  It had gruyere cheese and mozzarella melted on top with a very dark brown broth.  She liked this quite a bit.


Her second choice was the Crab and Lobster Cake, which she did not like as well.  It was a little bit dry and almost burnt in some places.  The remoulade sauce was artfully drizzled over the Crab and Lobster Cake, though, so it was presented quite well.


I went full carnivore and selected the Pork Soprareillo.  It was small pork medallions with onions and red/green peppers with a light paprika-based sauce.  Underneath of it was a sundried tomato risotto cake.  Both of them were quite good.


I really hope Bistro 9101 can overcome some of the recent bad luck by failed restaurants.  It's OK for the North Hills to have a quasi-fine dining restaurant.

Sunday, April 6, 2014

Gerrit Cole and The Potential, Never-Going-To-Happen Extension

With Starling Marte's recent extension, talk turned to who the Pirates could lock up next in an effort to cost control their core players.  Gerrit Cole is the next logical candidate, but since Cole's agent Scott Boras is a well-known proponent of getting his star players to free agency as quickly as possible, it's very unlikely.
If Cole were to sign his extension after the 2014 season, he would have 1 year and 111 days of service time accrued.  This should put him safely outside of the dreaded Super 2 threshold, meaning the Pirates would only have to go to arbitration with him three times instead of four.  After this year, the Pirates can pay Cole approximately the major league minimum ($500,000) for 2015 and 2016.  Then from 2017-2019, he would be arbitration-eligible.  So a potential 6 year deal would buy out all five years of remaining team control, plus one free agent year.
To re-iterate -- this is very unlikely to happen because of the presence of Scott Boras.  But let's continue along.
Using the Extension Tracker on MLB Trade Rumors, I filtered the results for starting pitcher extensions between 1 and 2 years of service time.  Since 2008, eleven pitchers have signed extensions with this level of service time.  Of those pitchers, though, only two are in the same neighborhood of Cole in terms of minor league pedigree (how much hype was given) and ceiling (top of rotation pitcher).  Those two pitchers are the aforementioned Julio Teheran (6 yr/$32.4M, with 1 option year) and Madison Bumgarner (5 yr/$35M, with 2 option years).  It should also be noted that both of these pitchers are clients of the Relativity Baseball agency.
Both Teheran and Bumgarner are low-end #1's or high-end #2 pitchers, in my opinion, while I think Cole could be a pure #1 ace.  Let's look at the year-by-year breakdown for each pitcher:
Teheran
2014 -- $1M signing bonus, $800K salary
2015 -- $1M
2016 -- $3.3M
2017 -- $6.3M
2018 -- $8M
2019 -- $11M
2020 -- $12M option with a $1M buyout
Bumgarner
2013 -- $1M signing bonus, $750K
2014 -- $3.75M
2015 -- $6.75M
2016 -- $9.75M
2017 -- $11.5M
2018 -- $12M club option with a $1.5M buyout
2019 -- $12M club option with same $1.5M buyout
If you compare both of them, the year-to-year salaries (at the same point in their service time cycles) are very similar.  Their "platform season" performance prior to getting their contracts are very similar, too.  In Julio Teheran's first full year in 2013, he put up a 3.20 ERA/3.69 FIP in 185 innings with a 8.24 K/9 and 2.18 BB/9.  In Madison Bumgarner's first full year in 2011, he put up a 2.77 ERA/3.05 FIP in 204 innings, with an 8.4 K/9 and 2.02 BB/9.  The 2014 season will be Cole's first full season.  In 2013, his 3.22 ERA/2.91 FIP, 7.67 K/9, 2.15 BB/9 rates all show that he is primed for a breakout full season.
Although I've mentioned twice now that an extension is not likely with Scott Boras, it's not unprecedented.  Since 2008, Boras has negotiated multi-year extensions for eight players.  However, of those eight players only seven bought out or had an option on any free agent years.  Prince Fielder merely cost-controlled two arbitration-eligible years.  It's also worth noting that only one those players, Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies, signed a deal before he reached arbitration.  He had just over two years of service time when his deal was signed.  Additionally, only one of these players, Jered Weaver of the Angels, is a starting pitcher.
Even though an extension is highly unlikely, let's assume Scott Boras is in a generous mood with the Pirates.  He'll want Gerrit Cole's contract to be precedent-setting, so he'll want to exceed the Teheran/Bumgarner deals.  Here's a potential framework:
2015 -- $2M signing bonus with a $1M salary
2016 -- $2M salary
2017 -- $4.5M
2018 -- $7.5M
2019 -- $10.5M
2020 -- $13M
2021 -- $15M option with a $2M buyout
That totals up to a 6 year/$42.5M deal with an additional option year worth $15M potentially.  Except that it most likely won't happen because (all together now) Gerrit Cole has Scott Boras as an agent.